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Game Recap
CGY1
SEA2
SEA beat CGY 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.41 expected goals to 1.73. B. Montour had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. J. Daccord stopped 21 of 22.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 19:51CGYB. ColemanPP0.06 xG
- 2nd 12:25SEAC. StephensonPP0.17 xG
- OT 0:48SEAJ. Eberle0.21 xG
Team Stats
CGYSEA
22Shots on goal23
1.73Expected goals2.41
60Shot attempts57
185v5 shots on goal17
1/3Power play1/6
31Hits27
16Blocked shots10
10Penalty minutes6
16Giveaways15
5Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 1.73 xGSEA 2.41 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:09 | 1:35 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 1:25 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 4 | 17:33 | 2:12 |
| A. Kuzmenko | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:08 | 2:21 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:09 | 2:14 |
| C. Zary | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:11 | 2:13 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 14:30 | 0:00 |
| A. Mantha | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:43 | 1:32 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Kirkland | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:21 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:43 | 0:00 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | 25:24 | 1:32 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22:37 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:59 | 2:09 |
| T. Barrie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:03 | 1:25 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:12 |
SEA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Stephenson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 23:28 | 5:30 |
| J. Eberle | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:03 | 6:23 |
| J. Schwartz | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:45 | 3:55 |
| J. McCann | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:35 | 6:01 |
| O. Bjorkstrand | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:05 | 3:03 |
| M. Beniers | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:36 | 4:46 |
| E. Tolvanen | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:32 | 0:16 |
| Y. Gourde | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:14 |
| S. Wright | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:58 | 3:43 |
| B. Tanev | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:05 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:21 | 4:02 |
| T. Kartye | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:22 | 0:00 |
| B. Montour | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 26:02 | 6:23 |
| J. Oleksiak | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 20:22 | 0:08 |
| R. Evans | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:33 | 3:20 |
| A. Larsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:36 | 0:11 |
| W. Borgen | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:06 |
| J. Mahura | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:01 | 0:09 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Daccord | 22 | 21 | 1 | .955 | 60:21 | Win |
| P. Grubauer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.1, SEA 3.2 | CGY 1, SEA 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 29.2, SEA 29.3 | CGY 22, SEA 23 |
| Win chance | SEA 52% | SEA won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.0 | 6 | 0.82 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| SEA J. McCann | 2.5 | 1 | 0.85 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.3 | 3 | 0.56 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.2 | 3 | 0.51 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA B. Montour | 2.1 | 6 | 0.55 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA O. Bjorkstrand | 2.0 | 4 | 0.64 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA A. Burakovsky | 1.9 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA J. Eberle | 1.9 | 1 | 0.65 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| SEA M. Beniers | 1.8 | 1 | 0.59 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| SEA J. Schwartz | 1.8 | 1 | 0.53 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.7 | 1 | 0.74 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.6 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY A. Kuzmenko | 1.6 | 2 | 0.72 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 0 | 0.42 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| SEA E. Tolvanen | 1.5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.5 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| SEA Y. Gourde | 1.4 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY A. Mantha | 1.4 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 1.4 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY T. Barrie | 1.4 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SEA A. Larsson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SEA S. Wright | 1.3 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SEA T. Kartye | 1.3 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SEA B. Tanev | 1.3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SEA C. Stephenson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| SEA J. Oleksiak | 1.2 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SEA R. Evans | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA W. Borgen | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.9 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.8 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 0.8 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SEA J. Mahura | 0.8 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CGY J. Kirkland | 0.8 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.