Game Recap: CGY 3, SEA 2, February 2, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY3

FinalSun, Feb 2, 2025Every game that night

SEA2

CGY beat SEA 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.07 expected goals to 2.28. Y. Sharangovich led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). B. Montour had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. D. Vladar stopped 29 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	3	0	0	3
SEA	0	1	1	2

1st 14:03CGYM. Frost0.07 xG
1st 16:43CGYY. SharangovichPP0.15 xG
1st 17:56CGYJ. HuberdeauPP0.18 xG
2nd 14:31SEAK. Kakko0.11 xG
3rd 5:41SEAB. Tanev0.04 xG

Team Stats

CGYSEA

35Shots on goal31

3.07Expected goals2.28

61Shot attempts71

265v5 shots on goal25

2/5Power play0/3

18Hits24

21Blocked shots13

6Penalty minutes10

11Giveaways15

5Takeaways7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 3.07 xGSEA 2.28 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY35 on goal, 3 scored

SEA30 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
Y. Sharangovich	C	1	1	2	2	0	1	+1	0	18:06	2:32
J. Huberdeau	LW	1	0	1	2	0	1	-1	0	20:45	5:37
N. Kadri	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	-1	0	19:49	5:42
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	+1	0	18:01	4:55
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	17:15	1:55
M. Pospisil	C	0	1	1	1	7	0	+1	2	10:55	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	2	19:39	5:37
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	0	2	-1	0	19:25	2:04
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	17:21	1:54
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	7:50	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	6:25	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5:57	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	2	2	4	-1	0	27:37	5:48
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	22:19	2:11
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	21:28	0:11
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	20:08	0:04
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	2	12:18	0:00
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	8:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Vladar	31	29	2	.935	60:00	Win
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Schwartz	LW	0	1	1	3	1	1	+1	0	19:12	3:03
K. Kakko	RW	1	0	1	1	2	1	+1	0	18:55	2:56
J. McCann	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	4	15:49	3:02
S. Wright	C	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	2	14:31	2:51
B. Tanev	LW	1	0	1	1	2	3	+1	0	12:09	0:02
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	20:46	3:01
M. Beniers	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	19:16	3:02
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	16:46	2:53
O. Bjorkstrand	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	13:24	2:57
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:52	0:00
M. Stephens	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:32	0:02
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	4:18	0:00
J. Mahura	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:30	0:03
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	8	0	1	+1	2	24:52	2:27
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	24:51	3:36
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	23:47	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	2	21:22	0:05
C. Fleury	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	0	8:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	35	32	3	.914	58:40	Loss
A. Stezka	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.6, SEA 3.0	CGY 3, SEA 2
Total goals	5.6	5
Shots on goal	CGY 27.8, SEA 28.0	CGY 35, SEA 31
Win chance	SEA 56%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.2	3	0.80	1	28%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.5	3	0.69	1	28%	0
SEA B. Montour	2.5	8	0.55	0	14%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	3	0.58	0	23%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	3	0.52	0	19%	0
SEA J. McCann	2.3	2	0.77	1	30%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.2	0	0.45	1	17%	0
SEA O. Bjorkstrand	2.2	0	0.69	0	24%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	2	0.48	1	12%	0
SEA M. Beniers	2.0	0	0.68	0	25%	0
SEA V. Dunn	2.0	4	0.66	0	13%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.9	2	0.76	1	23%	1
SEA K. Kakko	1.9	1	0.59	1	22%	1
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.8	2	0.51	2	22%	1
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	0	0.38	1	9%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	3	0.43	0	17%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.8	5	0.50	1	17%	1
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.7	1	0.48	0	21%	0
SEA A. Burakovsky	1.7	2	0.49	0	17%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.5	1	0.34	1	10%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.4	2	0.22	0	6%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.4	0	0.26	0	7%	0
SEA B. Tanev	1.2	1	0.31	1	15%	1
SEA C. Stephenson	1.2	1	0.73	0	21%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.2	1	0.58	1	20%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.1	5	0.22	0	6%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	1	0.17	0	10%	0
SEA J. Mahura	1.0	1	0.19	1	3%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	1.0	3	0.23	0	5%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.9	2	0.13	0	4%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.13	0	8%	0
SEA T. Kartye	0.9	1	0.19	0	10%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	0	0.15	0	3%	0
SEA M. Stephens	0.7	0	0.18	0	7%	0
SEA C. Fleury	0.7	2	0.09	0	2%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.6	1	0.09	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.