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Game Recap
CGY1
FinalSun, Oct 4, 2026Every game that night
SEA6

SEA beat CGY 6-1, with the chances close: 2.91 expected goals to 2.36. M. Samoskevich led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. McMann had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Daccord stopped 32 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CGY0011
SEA3216
  1. 1st 2:22SEAB. Catton0.14 xG
  2. 1st 4:40SEAM. Samoskevich0.20 xG
  3. 1st 7:40SEAB. McMann0.17 xG
  4. 2nd 11:58SEAS. Wright0.13 xG
  5. 2nd 19:34SEAM. Samoskevich0.16 xG
  6. 3rd 14:25CGYM. FrostPP0.16 xG
  7. 3rd 15:04SEAJ. Eberle0.07 xG

Team Stats

CGYSEA
33Shots on goal27
2.36Expected goals2.91
83Shot attempts52
295v5 shots on goal27
1/2Power play0/0
29Hits21
7Blocked shots22
0Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways18
6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.36 xGSEA 2.91 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdSEA goal, 2:22SEA goal, 4:40SEA goal, 7:40SEA goal, 11:58SEA goal, 19:34CGY goal, 14:25SEA goal, 15:04

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY33 on goal, 1 scored
SEA26 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. FrostC1013300017:512:49
J. FarabeeLW011400-2016:512:47
M. GridinRW011102-2014:262:48
M. CoronatoRW0005010022:022:50
S. HonzekLW000020-1015:290:02
Y. SharangovichC0001000015:230:00
M. BacklundC000520-2015:160:00
R. StromeC000020-3014:220:04
C. ZaryC000110-1013:560:05
M. PospisilC000180-2013:300:00
M. TsyplakovRW000030-3012:190:00
A. KlapkaRW000330-2011:170:00
S. NemecD000301-2021:140:05
Z. ParekhD000201-1020:592:47
K. BahlD000011-2019:470:00
Y. KuznetsovD000310-2019:320:03
Z. WhitecloudD000001-4018:590:00
J. MiddletonD000130-1016:470:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf27216.77860:00Loss
D. Cooley000–0:00

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. SamoskevichRW202310+2218:490:00
C. StephensonC022101+2015:460:00
B. CattonC112200+2012:410:00
M. BeniersC011010+2015:580:00
J. McCannLW011200+2015:420:00
B. McMannC101641+2015:270:00
S. WrightC101101+2014:470:00
J. EberleRW101222+2014:030:00
F. GaudreauC0000000016:500:00
R. WintertonC0003020015:390:00
K. KakkoRW000011+2013:150:00
C. DouglasC000152007:460:00
B. MontourD022302+3023:120:00
R. EvansD011111+2022:270:00
V. DunnD011001+2018:340:00
A. LarssonD000155+2021:440:00
R. LindgrenD000112+1218:370:00
V. OttavainenD000001+2215:510:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Daccord33321.97060:00Win
P. Grubauer000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Coronato19:12M. Frost15:02Y. Sharangovich15:23
Line 2R. Strome14:17S. Honzek15:27C. Zary13:51
Line 3M. Backlund15:16J. Farabee14:04M. Gridin11:38
Line 4A. Klapka11:17M. Tsyplakov12:19M. Pospisil13:31
Pair 1S. Nemec21:09Y. Kuznetsov19:29
Pair 2Z. Whitecloud18:59K. Bahl19:47
Pair 3J. Middleton16:47Z. Parekh18:12

SEA

Line 1C. Stephenson15:42B. McMann15:23J. Eberle14:03
Line 2M. Samoskevich18:49M. Beniers15:58J. McCann15:42
Line 3S. Wright14:47K. Kakko13:15B. Catton12:41
Line 4R. Winterton12:51F. Gaudreau14:03C. Douglas7:46
Pair 1B. Montour23:07R. Evans22:22
Pair 2A. Larsson18:56V. Dunn18:34
Pair 3R. Lindgren15:50V. Ottavainen15:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 15 overs hit (60%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
SEA B. McMann2.5-113+1056Over
SEA B. Montour2.5+105-1303Over
SEA J. McCann2.5+130-1402Under
CGY M. Coronato2.5+150-1655Over
SEA J. Eberle1.5-170+1352Over
CGY J. Farabee1.5-130+1054Over
SEA K. Kakko1.5+104-1400Under
CGY M. Backlund1.5-135+1165Over
SEA M. Beniers1.5-130+1050Under
CGY M. Frost1.5-140+1203Over
CGY M. Gridin1.5-178+1361Under
SEA M. Samoskevich1.5-152–3Over
SEA V. Dunn1.5-170+1500Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5-160+1351Under
CGY Z. Parekh1.5+105-1182Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCGY 2.8, SEA 3.2CGY 1, SEA 6
Total goals6.07
Shots on goalCGY 27.3, SEA 28.8CGY 33, SEA 27
Win chanceSEA 56%SEA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SEA B. McMann2.760.59128%1
SEA B. Montour2.730.47214%0
SEA J. McCann2.320.71127%0
CGY M. Coronato2.250.52020%0
CGY M. Backlund2.150.45017%0
SEA M. Samoskevich2.130.42216%2
SEA V. Dunn2.000.54111%0
SEA J. Eberle2.020.64123%1
CGY M. Gridin1.910.51116%0
CGY M. Frost1.830.49118%1
CGY J. Farabee1.740.44119%0
SEA M. Beniers1.700.54121%0
SEA R. Winterton1.730.3009%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.610.40019%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.520.2908%0
CGY S. Nemec1.530.3109%0
SEA B. Catton1.420.30213%1
SEA A. Larsson1.410.3007%0
SEA K. Kakko1.300.53017%0
CGY S. Honzek1.300.22012%0
SEA S. Wright1.210.42117%1
CGY R. Strome1.200.39012%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.200.35015%0
SEA C. Stephenson1.110.61218%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.110.2307%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud1.000.2405%0
CGY A. Klapka1.030.24010%0
CGY M. Tsyplakov1.000.2108%0
CGY J. Middleton0.910.2004%0
SEA R. Evans0.810.2817%0
CGY K. Bahl0.700.2003%0
SEA R. Lindgren0.710.1703%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 32 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.