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Game Recap
CGY1
Final/OTWed, Nov 4, 2026Every game that night
SEA2

SEA beat CGY 2-1 in overtime, with the chances close: 2.49 expected goals to 2.42. J. Daccord stopped 25 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdOTT
CGY10001
SEA01012
  1. 1st 12:45CGYY. Sharangovich0.05 xG
  2. 2nd 13:09SEAB. Catton0.06 xG
  3. OT 0:55SEAM. Beniers0.27 xG

Team Stats

CGYSEA
26Shots on goal29
2.42Expected goals2.49
62Shot attempts56
235v5 shots on goal23
0/1Power play0/3
21Hits17
14Blocked shots15
8Penalty minutes2
10Giveaways17
2Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.42 xGSEA 2.49 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdOTCGY goal, 12:45SEA goal, 13:09SEA goal, 0:55

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY24 on goal, 1 scored
SEA29 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
Y. SharangovichC1011000016:120:00
M. FrostC0112000215:141:38
J. FarabeeLW0003020019:531:22
M. BacklundC0001000018:530:00
M. CoronatoRW000101-1017:011:38
M. GridinRW000201-1015:311:31
R. StromeC0001000015:260:00
J. CastagnaC0000320013:580:00
M. PospisilC0001500613:180:16
A. SunievLW0002110012:100:00
A. KlapkaRW000130009:570:00
W. StromgrenLW000100009:490:00
Z. WhitecloudD011121+1020:140:00
S. NemecD000423-1022:220:07
K. BahlD0001210020:510:00
J. MiddletonD000111+1019:350:00
Z. ParekhD000100-1018:111:38
Y. KuznetsovD000221-1018:100:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf29272.93160:55OT loss
A. Sergeev000–0:00

SEA Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
M. BeniersC101100+1018:523:26
B. CattonC101111+1015:282:00
M. SamoskevichRW011411+1014:521:54
K. KakkoRW011200+1013:241:47
C. StephensonC000210-1020:153:34
B. McMannC000511+1019:343:26
M. WoodRW000102-1017:351:56
J. EberleRW0001000017:133:22
F. GaudreauC000211-1016:560:17
R. WintertonC0001300011:010:13
B. MeyersC0001020010:280:12
J. NymanRW000220009:160:04
B. MontourD011121+1223:510:52
V. DunnD000401-1023:313:55
R. EvansD0000030022:551:12
A. LarssonD000132-1021:230:00
J. MahuraD000000+1013:150:00
V. OttavainenD000020+1010:560:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Daccord26251.96260:55Win
P. Grubauer000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund15:59M. Coronato14:06J. Farabee15:48
Line 2R. Strome15:22M. Pospisil12:12M. Gridin13:08
Line 3Y. Sharangovich13:17M. Frost13:14A. Suniev12:10
Line 4J. Castagna12:07A. Klapka9:57W. Stromgren9:49
Pair 1S. Nemec20:58K. Bahl18:19
Pair 2J. Middleton16:27Z. Whitecloud17:06
Pair 3Y. Kuznetsov15:40Z. Parekh16:11

SEA

Line 1C. Stephenson15:26F. Gaudreau15:55M. Wood15:39
Line 2B. McMann15:50M. Beniers14:31J. Eberle13:51
Line 3M. Samoskevich12:58B. Catton12:51K. Kakko11:37
Line 4J. Nyman9:12B. Meyers9:32R. Winterton9:32
Pair 1B. Montour21:21R. Evans20:58
Pair 2A. Larsson20:07V. Dunn19:36
Pair 3J. Mahura11:58V. Ottavainen10:56

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

9 of 20 overs hit (45%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
SEA B. McMann2.5-118-1055Over
SEA B. Montour2.5+126-1451Under
SEA J. Eberle2.5+140-1751Under
CGY J. Farabee2.5+136-1603Over
CGY M. Backlund2.5+140-1601Under
CGY M. Coronato2.5+105-1251Under
CGY M. Gridin2.5+148-1652Under
CGY A. Suniev1.5-115+1002Over
SEA B. Catton1.5-115-1051Under
SEA F. Gaudreau1.5+125-1502Over
SEA K. Kakko1.5+120-1752Over
SEA M. Beniers1.5-120-1051Under
CGY M. Frost1.5-130+1102Over
SEA M. Samoskevich1.5-180+1404Over
SEA M. Wood1.5-120+1001Under
CGY R. Strome1.5+105-1251Under
CGY S. Nemec1.5-105-1154Over
SEA V. Dunn1.5-150+1284Over
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5-105-1051Under
CGY Z. Parekh1.5-120+1051Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCGY 3.0, SEA 3.3CGY 1, SEA 2
Total goals6.33
Shots on goalCGY 28.5, SEA 28.3CGY 26, SEA 29
Win chanceSEA 55%SEA won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SEA B. Montour2.810.61116%0
SEA B. McMann2.850.63028%0
CGY M. Backlund2.310.51019%0
CGY M. Coronato2.310.64022%0
SEA V. Dunn2.240.60012%0
SEA M. Samoskevich2.140.54122%0
CGY M. Gridin2.120.60019%0
CGY J. Farabee2.030.61023%0
SEA J. Eberle2.010.68025%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.710.43120%1
SEA M. Wood1.710.44020%0
SEA M. Beniers1.710.61123%1
CGY M. Frost1.720.52119%0
SEA B. Catton1.710.53120%1
CGY A. Suniev1.620.39018%0
CGY S. Nemec1.540.3409%0
SEA R. Winterton1.510.33012%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.510.33010%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.510.35012%0
CGY R. Strome1.510.46015%0
SEA A. Larsson1.310.2906%0
CGY A. Klapka1.310.32012%0
SEA F. Gaudreau1.220.42016%0
SEA V. Ottavainen1.200.1504%0
SEA K. Kakko1.220.58117%0
SEA J. Nyman1.220.28014%0
SEA B. Meyers1.210.32014%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.020.1704%0
CGY J. Middleton1.010.2204%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud1.010.2114%0
SEA C. Stephenson1.020.59015%0
SEA R. Evans0.900.3205%0
CGY J. Castagna0.900.27010%0
CGY K. Bahl0.810.2203%0
SEA J. Mahura0.800.1903%0

Shots on goal: 25 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.