Game Recap: CGY 3, SJS 1, December 28, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CGY3

FinalSat, Dec 28, 2024Every game that night

SJS1

CGY beat SJS 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.63 expected goals to 1.94. CGY outshot SJS 33 to 22. N. Kadri led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). N. Kadri had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. D. Wolf stopped 21 of 22.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	1	1	1	3
SJS	0	1	0	1

1st 4:40CGYJ. Huberdeau0.06 xG
2nd 3:04SJSM. CelebriniPP0.14 xG
2nd 6:50CGYM. BacklundPP0.47 xG
3rd 19:59CGYJ. HuberdeauEN0.82 xG

Team Stats

CGYSJS

33Shots on goal22

4.63Expected goals1.94

74Shot attempts53

265v5 shots on goal16

1/3Power play1/2

19Hits16

15Blocked shots17

9Penalty minutes11

11Giveaways12

5Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 4.63 xGSJS 1.94 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY33 on goal, 3 scored

SJS22 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	0	3	3	7	0	0	+2	0	18:01	2:35
J. Huberdeau	LW	2	0	2	3	0	0	+2	0	18:49	3:05
M. Backlund	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	0	21:23	2:26
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	20:12	3:27
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	0	20:07	2:26
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	3	3	0	+2	0	16:14	2:06
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:05	2:59
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	14:48	3:08
J. Pelletier	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	12:55	0:00
K. Rooney	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:44	0:16
W. Duehr	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:23	0:16
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	6:43	0:16
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	2	0	3	0	0	23:56	2:32
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	0	3	0	+2	0	22:03	3:17
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	0	24:07	0:16
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	16:04	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	15:34	0:00
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5	12:40	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	22	21	1	.955	60:00	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	-1	0	21:06	2:36
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	19:10	2:36
T. Toffoli	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	17:45	2:36
M. Granlund	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	23:12	2:36
F. Zetterlund	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	20:48	2:36
W. Smith	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	19:12	0:36
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	16:31	0:36
K. Kostin	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:08	0:36
B. Goodrow	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	13:47	0:00
T. Dellandrea	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	10:39	0:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	7	7:41	0:00
C. Grundstrom	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	1:34	0:00
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	21:08	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	20:19	0:00
H. Thrun	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	19:27	0:00
J. Rutta	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:06	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	16:53	0:36
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	14:51	0:36

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	32	30	2	.938	57:54	Loss
A. Georgiev	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTyler Toffoli SJS Faces CGY, his team until Apr 20231 A, 3 SOG
HometownDustin Wolf CGY Plays near home (born in Gilroy)21 saves on 22, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 3.8, SJS 2.9	CGY 3, SJS 1
Total goals	6.8	4
Shots on goal	CGY 33.7, SJS 27.8	CGY 33, SJS 22
Win chance	CGY 63%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.2	7	0.95	3	32%	0
SJS M. Celebrini	3.0	3	0.92	1	27%	1
CGY M. Backlund	2.7	3	0.62	1	22%	1
SJS T. Toffoli	2.6	3	0.69	1	30%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.4	0	0.64	1	14%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.4	1	0.66	0	24%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	2	0.69	0	28%	0
SJS M. Granlund	2.2	1	0.89	0	19%	0
CGY R. Andersson	2.1	2	0.60	1	13%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.0	3	0.96	2	27%	2
SJS F. Zetterlund	2.0	2	0.58	0	21%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.0	1	0.60	0	26%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.7	3	0.50	0	15%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.7	1	0.60	0	21%	0
SJS C. Grundstrom	1.4	0	0.24	0	13%	0
SJS L. Kunin	1.3	0	0.35	0	17%	0
SJS W. Smith	1.3	2	0.42	0	16%	0
CGY J. Pelletier	1.3	4	0.36	0	13%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.2	2	0.32	0	5%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.2	1	0.29	0	7%	0
SJS A. Wennberg	1.2	1	0.43	1	15%	0
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	1.1	1	0.21	0	5%	0
CGY B. Pachal	1.1	0	0.15	0	4%	0
SJS C. Ceci	1.1	1	0.28	0	5%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.1	2	0.29	0	6%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	0.9	1	0.18	0	4%	0
SJS K. Kostin	0.9	0	0.35	0	16%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.9	1	0.26	0	12%	0
SJS J. Rutta	0.9	0	0.19	0	4%	0
CGY K. Rooney	0.9	0	0.17	0	9%	0
CGY W. Duehr	0.9	1	0.27	0	12%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	0.9	0	0.19	0	8%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	1	0.15	0	9%	0
SJS H. Thrun	0.7	1	0.21	0	3%	0
SJS N. Sturm	0.7	3	0.20	0	9%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	1	0.15	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.