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Game Recap
CGY3
SJS2
CGY beat SJS 3-2, with the chances close: 3.03 expected goals to 2.86. W. Smith led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). D. Wolf stopped 29 of 31.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| SJS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 19:35SJSW. Smith0.24 xG
- 3rd 8:12CGYA. Klapka0.64 xG
- 3rd 11:00CGYJ. HuberdeauPP0.12 xG
- 3rd 15:30CGYM. Coronato0.14 xG
- 3rd 18:01SJSW. SmithPP0.43 xG
Team Stats
CGYSJS
32Shots on goal31
3.03Expected goals2.86
65Shot attempts55
315v5 shots on goal28
1/1Power play1/3
33Hits21
12Blocked shots14
6Penalty minutes2
9Giveaways17
6Takeaways5
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 3.03 xGSJS 2.86 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:04 | 1:13 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:03 | 1:13 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:56 | 1:13 |
| M. Frost | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 1:13 |
| A. Klapka | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 16:27 | 0:00 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Farabee | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:00 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:00 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:41 | 0:00 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 24:04 | 1:13 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 23:44 | 0:00 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 19:53 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 12:23 | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:07 | 3:15 |
| W. Smith | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:25 | 3:00 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:39 | 1:03 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:19 | 2:53 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:32 | 3:12 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22:08 | 1:24 |
| C. Lund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 12:12 | 1:23 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:39 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:58 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:50 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 27:05 | 3:02 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 22:25 | 0:03 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:32 | 0:00 |
| L. Carlsson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:37 | 1:16 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:13 | 1:17 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11:03 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G. Romanov | 32 | 29 | 3 | .906 | 56:17 | Loss |
| A. Georgiev | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 3.4, SJS 2.9 | CGY 3, SJS 2 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 31.5, SJS 28.1 | CGY 32, SJS 31 |
| Win chance | CGY 58% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.7 | 4 | 1.04 | 1 | 36% | 0 |
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.4 | 4 | 0.85 | 2 | 27% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.5 | 2 | 0.74 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.5 | 1 | 0.60 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.4 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 25% | 1 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.2 | 2 | 0.97 | 1 | 28% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.1 | 4 | 0.68 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 2.0 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY M. Frost | 2.0 | 4 | 0.61 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY J. Farabee | 1.9 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 1.9 | 4 | 0.71 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.7 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.6 | 0 | 0.34 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.6 | 3 | 0.54 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.6 | 4 | 0.22 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS C. Lund | 1.5 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CGY A. Klapka | 1.4 | 3 | 0.28 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.3 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS L. Carlsson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.2 | 0 | 0.29 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS N. Gregor | 1.1 | 2 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 1.0 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.9 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 3 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.9 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.8 | 2 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 0.8 | 1 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.8 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.5 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.