Game Recap: CGY 3, SJS 6, December 16, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY3

FinalTue, Dec 16, 2025Every game that night

SJS6

SJS beat CGY 6-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.22 expected goals to 2.04. M. Celebrini led the way with 4 points (2 G, 2 A). M. Celebrini had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.3. Y. Askarov stopped 27 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	2	0	1	3
SJS	3	0	3	6

1st 1:02SJSJ. Klingberg0.12 xG
1st 6:00SJSB. Goodrow0.19 xG
1st 11:01CGYB. Coleman0.12 xG
1st 14:23CGYR. Lomberg0.06 xG
1st 19:41SJSB. Goodrow0.10 xG
3rd 2:46SJSM. Celebrini0.10 xG
3rd 12:53SJST. Toffoli0.11 xG
3rd 13:31CGYN. Kadri0.08 xG
3rd 18:50SJSM. CelebriniEN0.94 xG

Team Stats

CGYSJS

30Shots on goal26

2.04Expected goals4.22

66Shot attempts56

285v5 shots on goal22

0/2Power play0/1

24Hits24

12Blocked shots25

2Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways22

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.04 xGSJS 4.22 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY30 on goal, 3 scored

SJS25 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	-1	0	20:34	2:37
B. Coleman	LW	1	0	1	4	5	0	0	0	18:47	1:24
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	0	17:04	2:33
C. Zary	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-1	0	16:12	1:25
A. Klapka	RW	0	1	1	2	6	2	-1	0	14:42	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	9:26	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	19:18	1:53
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	17:50	1:23
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-2	0	15:58	2:31
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	15:55	0:00
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	10:26	2:12
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	9:24	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	1	1	3	2	3	+1	0	24:53	2:21
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	5	0	0	-3	2	23:26	1:39
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	+2	0	20:41	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-4	0	18:14	0:02
H. Brzustewicz	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:24	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	11:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	25	20	5	.800	57:51	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

SJS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Celebrini	C	2	2	4	7	1	0	+2	0	21:25	1:28
B. Goodrow	C	2	1	3	2	2	1	+3	0	12:59	0:00
A. Wennberg	C	0	1	1	2	0	2	+1	0	18:47	1:28
W. Eklund	LW	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	2	18:39	1:28
C. Graf	RW	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	16:33	0:26
T. Toffoli	C	1	0	1	6	1	1	0	0	15:38	1:28
T. Dellandrea	C	0	1	1	0	4	3	+1	0	15:28	0:06
I. Chernyshov	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	12:20	0:32
Z. Ostapchuk	C	0	1	1	1	2	0	+1	0	8:41	0:00
E. Cardwell	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	12:56	0:00
J. Skinner	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:08	0:32
R. Reaves	RW	0	0	0	0	7	0	+1	0	11:00	0:00
J. Klingberg	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+3	0	21:43	1:28
D. Orlov	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+3	0	20:56	0:32
V. Iorio	D	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	0	15:35	0:00
M. Ferraro	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	-1	0	23:31	0:00
T. Liljegren	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	2	21:38	0:32
S. Mukhamadullin	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	16:03	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
Y. Askarov	30	27	3	.900	60:00	Win
A. Nedeljkovic	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund14:58B. Coleman15:50C. Zary14:20

Line 2N. Kadri16:21Y. Sharangovich15:23J. Farabee14:47

Line 3J. Huberdeau12:26M. Frost11:40M. Coronato8:14

Line 4R. Lomberg9:26J. Beecher8:47A. Klapka13:03

Pair 1M. Weegar20:30Y. Kuznetsov19:46

Pair 2R. Andersson20:11K. Bahl17:07

Pair 3J. Hanley11:24H. Brzustewicz15:02

SJS

Line 1W. Eklund16:35T. Toffoli14:10A. Wennberg15:33

Line 2M. Celebrini18:22C. Graf13:21I. Chernyshov11:48

Line 3E. Cardwell12:41J. Skinner11:36T. Dellandrea11:22

Line 4R. Reaves11:00Z. Ostapchuk8:23B. Goodrow9:50

Pair 1M. Ferraro19:09T. Liljegren18:13

Pair 2D. Orlov19:14J. Klingberg19:36

Pair 3S. Mukhamadullin13:57V. Iorio14:25

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamDevin Cooley CGY Faces SJS, his team until Apr 20240 saves on 0
HometownDevin Cooley CGY Plays near home (born in Los Gatos)0 saves on 0
HometownDustin Wolf CGY Plays near home (born in Gilroy)20 saves on 25

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 3.2, SJS 2.6	CGY 3, SJS 6
Total goals	5.8	9
Shots on goal	CGY 31.7, SJS 25.9	CGY 30, SJS 26
Win chance	CGY 59%	SJS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.5	2	0.94	1	32%	1
SJS M. Celebrini	3.3	7	1.08	4	31%	2
CGY M. Coronato	2.8	0	0.65	0	26%	0
SJS T. Toffoli	2.5	6	0.67	1	28%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.5	3	0.54	1	12%	0
CGY R. Andersson	2.4	5	0.59	0	13%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.4	4	0.55	1	24%	1
SJS W. Eklund	2.2	2	0.70	1	21%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.2	3	0.51	0	19%	0
CGY J. Farabee	2.1	1	0.47	0	20%	0
SJS J. Skinner	2.0	0	0.49	0	23%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	2.0	0	0.58	0	26%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.9	2	0.57	0	20%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.9	2	0.80	1	25%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.8	0	0.46	1	20%	0
SJS J. Klingberg	1.6	1	0.51	1	11%	1
SJS A. Wennberg	1.4	2	0.56	1	17%	0
SJS D. Orlov	1.4	0	0.42	1	8%	0
SJS T. Dellandrea	1.3	0	0.25	1	9%	0
SJS C. Graf	1.3	1	0.42	1	17%	0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov	1.2	1	0.32	0	8%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	1	0.25	0	5%	0
SJS T. Liljegren	1.0	0	0.24	0	5%	0
SJS M. Ferraro	1.0	2	0.22	0	4%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.0	2	0.21	1	11%	0
SJS E. Cardwell	1.0	0	0.25	0	14%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	2	0.14	1	7%	1
SJS S. Mukhamadullin	0.9	0	0.24	0	4%	0
SJS B. Goodrow	0.8	2	0.15	3	8%	2
SJS V. Iorio	0.7	1	0.11	1	3%	0
CGY J. Beecher	0.7	1	0.15	0	8%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.14	0	3%	0
SJS R. Reaves	0.6	0	0.12	0	6%	0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk	0.5	1	0.07	1	5%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.