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Game Recap
CGY2
FinalMon, Nov 2, 2026Every game that night
SJS1

CGY beat SJS 2-1, with the chances close: 2.58 expected goals to 2.89. A. Klapka led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Trouba had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. D. Wolf stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CGY1012
SJS0011
  1. 1st 14:36CGYA. Klapka0.07 xG
  2. 3rd 9:14CGYW. Stromgren0.44 xG
  3. 3rd 11:57SJSS. Dickinson0.22 xG

Team Stats

CGYSJS
22Shots on goal27
2.58Expected goals2.89
41Shot attempts71
205v5 shots on goal21
0/3Power play0/3
20Hits22
20Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways17
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.58 xGSJS 2.89 xGGoal

00.511.522.531st2nd3rdCGY goal, 14:36CGY goal, 9:14SJS goal, 11:57

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY22 on goal, 2 scored
SJS27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
A. KlapkaRW112221+2411:362:02
J. CastagnaC022020+109:530:00
W. StromgrenLW101212+208:340:00
M. BacklundC0004020020:470:00
J. FarabeeLW0001020020:113:13
M. CoronatoRW0000020018:383:14
Y. SharangovichC0002000017:241:59
M. GridinRW000100-1015:533:11
A. SunievLW0000120014:531:52
M. FrostC000100+1014:283:13
M. PospisilC000082-1013:340:00
R. StromeC000101-1013:141:55
Z. WhitecloudD000122+1022:250:09
J. MiddletonD000300+1021:000:00
K. BahlD000001-1019:260:00
Z. ParekhD0000020018:253:05
S. NemecD0002010017:242:07
Y. KuznetsovD000240+1016:150:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf27261.96360:00Win
A. Sergeev000–0:00

SJS Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
K. SherwoodLW0112400019:221:03
M. CelebriniC000220-1022:564:14
M. MarchmentLW0000000021:104:16
W. SmithC000200-1218:234:27
M. MisaC0001000017:191:05
T. ToffoliC000601-1017:004:22
I. StenbergLW0002000016:414:11
C. GrafRW0000210016:120:00
F. BystedtC0000000010:280:00
Z. OstapchukC000150009:390:00
A. GaudetteRW000010009:170:50
B. GoodrowC000020048:040:00
J. TroubaD011620+1025:351:00
S. DickinsonD101212+1018:550:00
D. NurseD0000110021:250:00
M. KesselringD0001010018:410:00
D. OrlovD000100-2012:420:47
N. AllanD000122-2011:580:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
Y. Askarov22202.90958:13Loss
A. Nedeljkovic000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Backlund16:45M. Coronato14:39J. Farabee14:15
Line 2Y. Sharangovich12:18A. Suniev11:50M. Frost10:46
Line 3M. Gridin12:06R. Strome10:41M. Pospisil10:50
Line 4W. Stromgren8:34J. Castagna9:33A. Klapka8:46
Pair 1J. Middleton16:49Z. Whitecloud17:29
Pair 2K. Bahl15:59S. Nemec13:37
Pair 3Y. Kuznetsov15:00Z. Parekh15:08

SJS

Line 1M. Marchment15:07M. Misa13:46K. Sherwood13:47
Line 2C. Graf13:12I. Stenberg12:30F. Bystedt10:28
Line 3W. Smith12:01M. Celebrini14:54T. Toffoli12:38
Line 4B. Goodrow7:39A. Gaudette8:27Z. Ostapchuk6:48
Pair 1J. Trouba19:22S. Dickinson17:07
Pair 2D. Nurse17:25M. Kesselring16:17
Pair 3D. Orlov11:47N. Allan11:50

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

6 of 21 overs hit (29%).

PlayerLineOverUnderSOGResult
SJS M. Celebrini3.5-118+1052Under
CGY J. Farabee2.5+140-1701Under
CGY M. Backlund2.5+140-1654Over
CGY M. Coronato2.5+108-1300Under
CGY M. Gridin2.5+146-1551Under
SJS T. Toffoli2.5+135-1506Over
SJS W. Smith2.5-112-1052Under
CGY A. Suniev1.5-115-1050Under
SJS C. Graf1.5+125-1300Under
SJS D. Nurse1.5-110-1200Under
SJS D. Orlov1.5+135-2001Under
SJS J. Trouba1.5-115-1106Over
SJS K. Sherwood1.5-160+1252Over
CGY M. Frost1.5-136+1101Under
SJS M. Kesselring1.5+110-1401Under
SJS M. Marchment1.5-155+1350Under
SJS M. Misa1.5+120-1501Under
CGY R. Strome1.5+100-1301Under
CGY S. Nemec1.5+110-1352Over
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.5-110+1042Over
CGY Z. Parekh1.5-130+1120Under

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

  • HometownDustin Wolf CGY Plays near home (born in Gilroy)26 saves on 27, the win

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCGY 3.2, SJS 3.3CGY 2, SJS 1
Total goals6.53
Shots on goalCGY 28.5, SJS 29.3CGY 22, SJS 27
Win chanceSJS 52%CGY won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
SJS M. Celebrini3.821.31039%0
SJS W. Smith2.820.91031%0
SJS T. Toffoli2.660.68028%0
CGY M. Coronato2.400.68024%0
CGY M. Backlund2.340.52020%0
CGY M. Gridin2.210.66021%0
CGY J. Farabee2.110.64024%0
SJS K. Sherwood2.120.49121%0
SJS D. Nurse1.900.3107%0
SJS M. Marchment1.900.67025%0
SJS J. Trouba1.960.3917%0
SJS M. Kesselring1.910.3307%0
CGY M. Frost1.710.55021%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.720.44021%0
CGY A. Suniev1.700.39018%0
CGY M. Pospisil1.600.37013%0
CGY R. Strome1.610.48015%0
CGY S. Nemec1.520.41012%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.500.40013%0
SJS C. Graf1.500.48020%0
SJS I. Stenberg1.520.53020%0
SJS M. Misa1.410.51019%0
CGY A. Klapka1.320.30213%1
SJS D. Orlov1.210.4107%0
SJS S. Dickinson1.220.2715%1
CGY J. Castagna1.000.24211%0
CGY Y. Kuznetsov1.020.2005%0
CGY Z. Whitecloud0.910.2405%0
CGY J. Middleton0.930.2406%0
SJS B. Goodrow0.900.1709%0
SJS Z. Ostapchuk0.910.1307%0
CGY K. Bahl0.800.2605%0
SJS N. Allan0.610.2003%0

Shots on goal: 18 of 33 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.