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Game Recap
CGY1
STL2
STL beat CGY 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.41 expected goals to 1.58. J. Binnington stopped 27 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- 1st 0:49STLC. Parayko0.05 xG
- 3rd 6:06CGYK. Bahl0.04 xG
- 3rd 11:11STLR. Faksa0.05 xG
Team Stats
CGYSTL
28Shots on goal25
1.58Expected goals2.41
64Shot attempts54
265v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play0/2
20Hits20
13Blocked shots18
4Penalty minutes4
14Giveaways13
7Takeaways4
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 1.58 xGSTL 2.41 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:30 | 1:58 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:54 | 1:52 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:43 | 1:50 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 18:15 | 2:10 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:57 | 1:51 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:49 | 1:54 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:15 | 1:59 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 0:00 |
| R. Kerins | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:41 | 2:02 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:08 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9:04 | 0:06 |
| K. Bahl | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 20:33 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 25:36 | 2:05 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 24:37 | 1:56 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 18:31 | 0:09 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:51 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:18 | 2:03 |
| R. Faksa | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 13:34 | 0:00 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:16 | 1:59 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:36 | 1:49 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:16 | 2:01 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:22 | 2:11 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:14 | 2:02 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:49 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:05 | 1:57 |
| B. Saad | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 8:32 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:05 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 25:35 | 1:58 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 25:05 | 2:06 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:36 | 0:00 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:04 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 18:37 | 1:54 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 28 | 27 | 1 | .964 | 60:00 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.8, STL 3.4 | CGY 1, STL 2 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 28.7, STL 29.5 | CGY 28, STL 25 |
| Win chance | STL 60% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 3 | 0.77 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.9 | 2 | 0.91 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 2 | 0.56 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.4 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.3 | 1 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 2 | 0.49 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.0 | 3 | 0.84 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.9 | 0 | 0.67 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 3 | 0.96 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.8 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.7 | 4 | 0.41 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 4 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| STL B. Saad | 1.6 | 2 | 0.50 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.6 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.5 | 4 | 0.34 | 1 | 11% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.3 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| STL A. Texier | 1.3 | 3 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 3 | 0.21 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.35 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY W. Duehr | 0.8 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.7 | 0 | 0.12 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.