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Game Recap
CGY1
STL4
STL beat CGY 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.60 expected goals to 1.86. B. Schenn led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). R. Andersson had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. J. Hofer stopped 28 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| STL | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
- 1st 4:55STLB. Schenn0.03 xG
- 1st 13:53STLC. Parayko0.04 xG
- 1st 15:40STLJ. Kyrou0.06 xG
- 2nd 11:14CGYY. Sharangovich0.18 xG
- 2nd 17:39STLB. SchennPP0.13 xG
Team Stats
CGYSTL
29Shots on goal29
1.86Expected goals3.60
65Shot attempts61
265v5 shots on goal23
0/1Power play1/3
21Hits28
12Blocked shots14
13Penalty minutes9
24Giveaways24
4Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CGY 1.86 xGSTL 3.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:59 | 0:48 |
| R. Kerins | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:45 | 1:11 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:40 | 1:11 |
| M. Backlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 1:13 |
| M. Coronato | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:54 | 0:47 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:20 | 0:49 |
| N. Kadri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:26 | 0:49 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:40 | 1:12 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 6:55 | 0:00 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 6:36 | 0:00 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 5:31 | 0:00 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:23 | 1:02 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 21:42 | 0:58 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:00 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:55 | 0:00 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 15:19 | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Schenn | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:52 | 3:19 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:28 | 2:12 |
| R. Thomas | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:43 | 2:18 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:00 | 2:11 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:38 | 2:10 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:30 | 2:16 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:42 | 0:00 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 13:29 | 1:05 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:15 | 0:00 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:54 | 0:00 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:29 | 0:00 |
| N. Walker | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 12:17 | 0:00 |
| C. Parayko | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:46 | 1:54 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 21:54 | 2:19 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:12 | 2:07 |
| T. Tucker | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:23 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:58 | 0:02 |
| P. Broberg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:52 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Hofer | 29 | 28 | 1 | .966 | 59:48 | Win |
| J. Binnington | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CGY 2.8, STL 3.2 | CGY 1, STL 4 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CGY 29.1, STL 28.8 | CGY 29, STL 29 |
| Win chance | STL 56% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.3 | 5 | 0.80 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| STL J. Kyrou | 2.7 | 3 | 0.84 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.4 | 2 | 0.52 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.3 | 1 | 0.61 | 2 | 24% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 1 | 0.51 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.1 | 2 | 0.83 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 1.9 | 2 | 0.51 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| STL R. Thomas | 1.9 | 4 | 0.93 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 1.9 | 3 | 0.65 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 1.8 | 3 | 0.76 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.8 | 5 | 0.43 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.7 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 24% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 1.7 | 3 | 0.40 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.6 | 1 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.3 | 0 | 0.49 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.2 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.1 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 0.9 | 1 | 0.19 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 0.9 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY W. Duehr | 0.8 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.8 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| STL T. Tucker | 0.7 | 2 | 0.13 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.7 | 2 | 0.14 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.