Game Recap: CGY 2, STL 3, November 11, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY2

FinalTue, Nov 11, 2025Every game that night

STL3

STL beat CGY 3-2, with the chances close: 3.32 expected goals to 3.02. CGY outshot STL 40 to 31. O. Sundqvist led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). R. Andersson had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Binnington stopped 38 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	2	0	2
STL	2	1	0	3

1st 10:59STLD. HollowayPP0.11 xG
1st 13:43STLM. Kessel0.03 xG
2nd 7:20STLN. Walker0.37 xG
2nd 14:04CGYM. Coronato0.03 xG
2nd 14:29CGYR. Andersson0.03 xG

Team Stats

CGYSTL

40Shots on goal31

3.02Expected goals3.32

71Shot attempts48

315v5 shots on goal23

0/1Power play1/2

15Hits25

5Blocked shots18

6Penalty minutes4

20Giveaways10

6Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 3.02 xGSTL 3.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY40 on goal, 2 scored

STL31 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	6	0	0	+1	0	18:48	2:00
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	3	2	1	+1	0	15:56	0:00
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	6	0	0	-2	0	21:20	2:00
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	+1	0	20:13	2:00
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	17:47	2:00
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-2	0	15:32	0:00
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	14:01	0:00
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	12:58	0:00
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:44	0:00
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	11:23	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	8:58	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	8:21	0:00
R. Andersson	D	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	2	25:12	2:00
B. Pachal	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	15:03	0:00
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	22:55	0:00
Y. Kuznetsov	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	20:10	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	20:06	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:31	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	31	28	3	.903	58:16	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
O. Sundqvist	C	0	2	2	1	4	0	+1	0	13:55	0:08
P. Suter	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	17:42	1:22
A. Toropchenko	RW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:08	0:08
D. Holloway	LW	1	0	1	4	3	0	-1	0	13:41	1:24
N. Walker	LW	1	0	1	2	6	1	+1	2	13:35	0:08
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	19:22	2:14
R. Thomas	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	18:11	2:18
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	16:26	1:54
J. Snuggerud	RW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	15:51	2:16
J. Kyrou	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	13:08	1:22
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	12:07	1:42
N. Bjugstad	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	0	11:18	0:00
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	0	21:04	1:11
M. Kessel	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	11:41	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	0	0	0	2	8	0	0	26:45	0:08
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	24:53	0:08
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	21:45	2:27
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	2	10:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Binnington	40	38	2	.950	60:00	Win
J. Hofer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1J. Huberdeau14:01M. Coronato15:30M. Frost13:29

Line 2N. Kadri16:40J. Farabee13:44Y. Sharangovich7:27

Line 3M. Backlund13:51B. Coleman12:29S. Honzek11:07

Line 4R. Lomberg8:58A. Klapka12:25C. Zary11:44

Pair 1R. Andersson19:06K. Bahl16:52

Pair 2M. Weegar18:45Y. Kuznetsov18:15

Pair 3J. Hanley13:54B. Pachal14:13

STL

Line 1P. Buchnevich14:33R. Thomas14:06J. Snuggerud13:35

Line 2B. Schenn14:32P. Suter14:06N. Bjugstad10:52

Line 3O. Sundqvist12:39N. Walker12:30A. Toropchenko11:54

Line 4J. Kyrou10:46D. Dvorsky10:25D. Holloway11:18

Pair 1C. Parayko22:11P. Broberg20:29

Pair 2J. Faulk18:34C. Fowler17:51

Pair 3T. Tucker10:28M. Kessel11:41

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.7, STL 3.2	CGY 2, STL 3
Total goals	5.9	5
Shots on goal	CGY 26.9, STL 27.1	CGY 40, STL 31
Win chance	STL 57%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	6	0.83	0	30%	0
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	2	0.75	0	32%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.3	4	0.72	1	26%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	6	0.55	1	22%	1
CGY B. Coleman	2.1	2	0.49	0	22%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.0	3	0.50	0	10%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.9	7	0.42	1	10%	1
CGY M. Backlund	1.9	3	0.38	1	15%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	1.9	3	0.75	0	26%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	2	0.42	0	18%	0
STL P. Suter	1.8	0	0.55	1	24%	0
STL J. Snuggerud	1.8	3	0.51	0	19%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	4	0.73	0	23%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.45	1	8%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.7	0	0.40	0	9%	0
STL N. Bjugstad	1.7	2	0.33	0	16%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.7	2	0.49	0	17%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.6	3	0.91	0	22%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	1	0.60	0	21%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	1	0.38	0	8%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.5	0	0.38	0	16%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.4	0	0.51	0	7%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.4	1	0.42	0	20%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.3	2	0.31	0	16%	0
CGY S. Honzek	1.3	0	0.21	0	11%	0
STL N. Walker	1.2	2	0.30	1	14%	1
STL A. Toropchenko	1.2	1	0.26	1	12%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	1	0.27	0	13%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	0	0.22	0	4%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	1	0.32	2	11%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.8	1	0.13	0	7%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	0	0.15	1	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.7	1	0.17	0	3%	0
STL T. Tucker	0.7	2	0.15	0	4%	0
STL M. Kessel	0.5	2	0.10	1	2%	1

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.