Game Recap: CGY 1, VAN 5, October 9, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY1

FinalThu, Oct 9, 2025Every game that night

VAN5

VAN beat CGY 5-1, with the chances close: 2.44 expected goals to 2.13. VAN outshot CGY 26 to 18. F. Chytil led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). F. Chytil had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. T. Demko stopped 17 of 18.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	0	0	1	1
VAN	1	0	4	5

1st 14:53VANK. Sherwood0.01 xG
3rd 2:54VANF. Chytil0.26 xG
3rd 8:53VANF. Chytil0.16 xG
3rd 11:43VANJ. Lekkerimäki0.08 xG
3rd 13:06CGYM. Frost0.06 xG
3rd 17:06VANB. Boeser0.05 xG

Team Stats

CGYVAN

18Shots on goal26

2.13Expected goals2.44

55Shot attempts46

125v5 shots on goal17

0/4Power play0/4

35Hits27

7Blocked shots18

10Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways17

3Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 2.13 xGVAN 2.44 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY18 on goal, 1 scored

VAN26 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	17:53	4:48
M. Frost	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:32	5:01
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	16:31	2:25
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-3	0	18:06	5:16
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	2	16:37	5:13
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	16:31	0:19
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	3	8	2	-1	0	16:11	0:22
M. Gridin	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-4	0	13:48	2:28
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	13:29	2:57
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	11:28	2:42
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	11:14	0:00
J. Kirkland	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	9:23	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	25:26	3:16
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	4	22:42	5:03
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-2	0	20:10	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	16:04	0:10
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	15:19	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	2	13:08	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	26	21	5	.808	59:28	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Chytil	C	2	0	2	5	0	2	+2	2	16:25	3:06
C. Garland	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+2	0	18:22	2:39
B. Boeser	RW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+2	0	17:12	5:18
E. Kane	LW	0	1	1	4	4	0	+1	0	16:40	5:50
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+1	0	15:39	3:44
J. DeBrusk	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:20	5:07
A. Bains	LW	0	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	14:24	0:43
K. Sherwood	LW	1	0	1	2	6	1	0	2	14:13	0:02
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	1	0	1	2	2	0	+1	0	13:42	2:26
D. O'Connor	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	2	13:32	0:02
A. Räty	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	11:14	0:02
B. Cootes	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	11:14	2:40
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+2	0	25:07	6:00
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	+1	0	21:52	2:17
T. Myers	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+2	0	19:15	0:02
M. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	+2	0	18:03	0:02
D. Forbort	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:17	0:00
E. Pettersson	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	2	13:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
T. Demko	18	17	1	.944	59:17	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1Y. Sharangovich12:10M. Frost10:47J. Farabee9:53

Line 2M. Backlund11:37B. Coleman11:33C. Zary9:52

Line 3N. Kadri10:22M. Gridin10:37M. Coronato9:37

Line 4R. Lomberg10:08A. Klapka8:46J. Kirkland6:33

Pair 1M. Weegar14:02J. Hanley15:23

Pair 2R. Andersson16:02K. Bahl11:58

Pair 3J. Bean12:00B. Pachal12:25

VAN

Line 1C. Garland11:18F. Chytil12:14A. Bains11:07

Line 2D. O'Connor9:52A. Räty9:54K. Sherwood11:14

Line 3B. Boeser10:02E. Pettersson9:17J. DeBrusk8:20

Line 4E. Kane9:29J. Lekkerimäki10:33B. Cootes8:34

Pair 1F. Hronek15:42Q. Hughes16:26

Pair 2T. Myers12:25M. Pettersson12:20

Pair 3D. Forbort12:13E. Pettersson12:45

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownKevin Bahl CGY Plays near home (born in New Westminster)1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.7, VAN 3.2	CGY 1, VAN 5
Total goals	5.9	6
Shots on goal	CGY 26.4, VAN 27.1	CGY 18, VAN 26
Win chance	VAN 59%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.3	1	0.82	0	29%	0
VAN Q. Hughes	2.7	1	1.03	0	13%	0
VAN E. Kane	2.6	4	0.56	1	28%	0
VAN F. Chytil	2.5	5	0.50	2	21%	2
VAN C. Garland	2.3	1	0.65	1	24%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	3	0.49	0	21%	0
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	1	0.55	0	21%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	1	0.55	0	13%	0
VAN B. Boeser	2.2	2	0.77	1	32%	1
VAN J. DeBrusk	2.2	2	0.60	1	28%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.1	1	0.43	0	17%	0
VAN K. Sherwood	2.0	2	0.57	1	22%	1
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	0	0.39	0	11%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.8	1	0.77	1	27%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.7	1	0.42	0	17%	0
CGY J. Farabee	1.7	0	0.36	1	15%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.6	2	0.43	1	15%	1
VAN F. Hronek	1.6	3	0.53	0	8%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.6	1	0.38	0	16%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.6	1	0.35	1	16%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.4	1	0.41	1	18%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.4	1	0.37	0	19%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.3	2	0.33	1	15%	1
VAN T. Myers	1.3	1	0.31	0	5%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.1	1	0.22	0	4%	0
VAN M. Pettersson	1.0	0	0.35	0	4%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	1	0.16	0	8%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.8	0	0.13	0	5%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.8	1	0.18	0	5%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.8	0	0.14	0	4%	0
CGY B. Pachal	0.7	1	0.14	0	4%	0
VAN D. Forbort	0.7	0	0.16	0	4%	0
VAN A. Bains	0.7	0	0.13	1	9%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.4	0	0.19	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.4 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.