Game Recap: CGY 1, VAN 4, October 3, 2026

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CGY1

FinalSat, Oct 3, 2026Every game that night

VAN4

VAN beat CGY 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.72 expected goals to 1.77. L. Ohgren led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Sasson had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. L. Meriläinen stopped 23 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CGY	1	0	0	1
VAN	0	0	4	4

1st 14:51CGYM. CoronatoPP0.07 xG
3rd 1:28VANL. Ohgren0.44 xG
3rd 9:04VANE. Pettersson0.15 xG
3rd 16:33VAND. O'Connor0.09 xG
3rd 17:16VANA. RätyEN0.90 xG

Team Stats

CGYVAN

24Shots on goal26

1.77Expected goals3.72

63Shot attempts63

225v5 shots on goal20

1/2Power play0/5

28Hits34

22Blocked shots21

37Penalty minutes21

19Giveaways18

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 1.77 xGVAN 3.72 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY24 on goal, 1 scored

VAN26 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	1	0	1	1	0	1	-4	0	16:48	1:43
J. Farabee	LW	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	2	14:35	1:42
M. Backlund	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	18:57	0:00
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	16:55	0:50
M. Gridin	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-3	0	16:46	1:41
M. Frost	C	0	0	0	3	0	3	-4	0	15:48	1:42
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:40	0:00
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	0	12:31	0:00
R. Strome	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	11:34	0:53
M. Tsyplakov	RW	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	11:29	0:52
B. Othmann	LW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:30	0:51
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	25	8:07	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	0	1	1	4	1	1	-2	2	17:00	1:43
Z. Whitecloud	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	0	0	25:01	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	4	22:37	0:00
S. Nemec	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-3	0	19:59	0:53
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	4	17:39	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	-2	0	16:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Cooley	25	22	3	.880	59:46	Loss
D. Wolf	0	0	0	–	0:00

VAN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
L. Karlsson	C	0	2	2	2	0	0	+3	0	18:09	2:56
L. Ohgren	LW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	0	17:19	2:25
E. Pettersson	C	0	1	1	1	8	1	+2	0	22:24	6:56
D. O'Connor	LW	1	0	1	2	3	1	+1	2	17:50	6:45
P. Cotter	LW	0	1	1	1	4	0	+2	0	14:05	0:00
A. Räty	C	1	0	1	3	2	0	+1	0	9:30	0:13
M. Rossi	C	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	2	20:09	7:17
B. Boeser	RW	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	0	18:37	7:06
M. Sasson	C	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	12:14	0:14
J. Lekkerimäki	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:15	2:53
A. Bains	LW	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:04	0:18
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	10:08	0:08
T. Willander	D	0	2	2	0	1	1	+2	0	20:16	2:41
E. Pettersson	D	1	0	1	1	1	1	+2	0	14:47	0:13
F. Hronek	D	0	0	0	1	3	8	+2	0	28:52	5:28
Z. Buium	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:49	4:19
J. Oleksiak	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+2	0	17:54	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	17	8:04	0:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
L. Meriläinen	24	23	1	.958	60:00	Win
K. Lankinen	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1M. Gridin14:51M. Frost13:13M. Coronato14:12

Line 2Y. Sharangovich13:26R. Strome10:41B. Othmann9:39

Line 3M. Backlund11:55S. Honzek9:56J. Farabee8:39

Line 4M. Pospisil9:12M. Tsyplakov10:37A. Klapka8:07

Pair 1Z. Whitecloud16:47K. Bahl16:35

Pair 2J. Middleton14:23Z. Parekh15:03

Pair 3J. Hanley12:37S. Nemec16:07

VAN

Line 1P. Cotter12:40L. Ohgren13:40B. Boeser11:31

Line 2E. Pettersson13:33M. Rossi12:10L. Karlsson14:05

Line 3A. Bains10:19M. Sasson10:44J. Lekkerimäki8:22

Line 4B. Gallagher9:57D. O'Connor9:55A. Räty8:48

Pair 1J. Oleksiak16:25T. Willander17:12

Pair 2Z. Buium16:55F. Hronek19:46

Pair 3L. Schenn7:19E. Pettersson12:39

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Prop Results

8 of 15 overs hit (53%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	SOG	Result
VAN B. Boeser	2.5	+100	-125	3	Over
VAN F. Hronek	2.5	+135	-170	1	Under
CGY M. Coronato	2.5	-105	-118	1	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	1.5	-130	+100	2	Over
CGY J. Farabee	1.5	-160	+135	1	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	1.5	-125	+105	2	Over
VAN L. Ohgren	1.5	-105	-125	3	Over
CGY M. Backlund	1.5	-180	+160	3	Over
CGY M. Frost	1.5	-180	+144	3	Over
CGY M. Gridin	1.5	-160	+135	4	Over
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	-115	+100	1	Under
CGY S. Nemec	1.5	+100	-135	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.5	-140	+105	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	1.5	+120	-160	1	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	1.5	-120	-105	4	Over

4 of 33 overs hit (12%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	G	Result
VAN A. Bains	0.5	+650	-1600	0	Under
CGY A. Klapka	0.5	+775	-1200	0	Under
VAN A. Räty	0.5	+550	-800	1	Over
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+200	-240	0	Under
VAN B. Gallagher	0.5	+600	-700	0	Under
VAN D. O'Connor	0.5	+500	-750	1	Over
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+475	-700	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+255	-360	0	Under
CGY J. Hanley	0.5	+1500	-4000	0	Under
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+425	-600	0	Under
CGY J. Middleton	0.5	+1500	-5000	0	Under
VAN J. Oleksiak	0.5	+1400	-2500	0	Under
CGY K. Bahl	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+330	-500	0	Under
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+380	-700	1	Over
VAN L. Schenn	0.5	+1400	-3500	0	Under
CGY M. Backlund	0.5	+370	-600	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+235	-310	1	Over
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+250	-360	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+275	-370	0	Under
CGY M. Pospisil	0.5	+800	-1200	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+285	-350	0	Under
VAN M. Sasson	0.5	+550	-800	0	Under
CGY M. Tsyplakov	0.5	+700	-2000	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+450	-900	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+425	-800	0	Under
CGY S. Honzek	0.5	+460	-800	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+750	-1600	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+800	-2500	0	Under
CGY Y. Sharangovich	0.5	+360	-650	0	Under
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+600	-1400	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+440	-750	0	Under
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+1600	-4000	0	Under

6 of 19 overs hit (32%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	A	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	+150	-180	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	+108	-130	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+225	-310	1	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+370	-550	0	Under
CGY K. Bahl	0.5	+280	-525	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+300	-360	2	Over
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+280	-400	1	Over
CGY M. Backlund	0.5	+260	-330	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+155	-215	0	Under
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+175	-245	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+175	-235	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	+150	-175	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+340	-500	1	Over
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+250	-350	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+210	-325	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+220	-300	2	Over
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+215	-235	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+175	-235	1	Over
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+300	-550	0	Under

7 of 18 overs hit (39%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	P	Result
VAN B. Boeser	0.5	-150	+120	0	Under
VAN F. Hronek	0.5	-132	+105	0	Under
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+105	-132	1	Over
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	0.5	+185	-190	0	Under
VAN L. Karlsson	0.5	+145	-170	2	Over
VAN L. Ohgren	0.5	+150	-190	2	Over
CGY M. Backlund	0.5	+125	-155	0	Under
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	-130	+100	1	Over
CGY M. Frost	0.5	-115	-115	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	-110	-120	0	Under
VAN M. Rossi	0.5	-125	+100	0	Under
VAN P. Cotter	0.5	+171	-225	1	Over
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+130	-160	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+160	-200	0	Under
VAN T. Willander	0.5	+160	-215	2	Over
VAN Z. Buium	0.5	+120	-160	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+115	-145	1	Over
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.5	+275	-400	0	Under

3 of 7 overs hit (43%).

Player	Line	Over	Under	PPP	Result
CGY J. Farabee	0.5	+310	-650	1	Over
CGY M. Coronato	0.5	+270	-500	1	Over
CGY M. Frost	0.5	+280	-550	0	Under
CGY M. Gridin	0.5	+270	-500	0	Under
CGY R. Strome	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CGY S. Nemec	0.5	+500	-1600	0	Under
CGY Z. Parekh	0.5	+250	-425	1	Over

Player	Line	Over	Under	SV	Result
CGY D. Cooley	23.5	-114	-105	22	Under

Player	Line	Over	Under	BLK	Result
VAN F. Hronek	1.5	+115	-165	8	Over
CGY J. Middleton	1.5	+115	-160	3	Over

Each player's main line (the one most books posted) at the last price before puck drop, the best price on each side there, and what he did.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownKevin Bahl CGY Plays near home (born in New Westminster)0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 3.2, VAN 3.2	CGY 1, VAN 4
Total goals	6.4	5
Shots on goal	CGY 28.3, VAN 28.4	CGY 24, VAN 26
Win chance	VAN 50%	VAN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY M. Coronato	2.3	1	0.60	1	20%	1
VAN B. Boeser	2.3	3	0.73	0	29%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.1	3	0.52	0	18%	0
CGY M. Gridin	1.9	4	0.60	0	17%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	1.9	1	0.77	1	25%	0
VAN D. O'Connor	1.9	2	0.37	1	17%	1
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	1	0.52	1	20%	0
VAN F. Hronek	1.8	1	0.60	0	8%	0
CGY M. Frost	1.8	3	0.57	0	19%	0
VAN L. Ohgren	1.7	3	0.41	2	16%	1
VAN L. Karlsson	1.7	2	0.47	2	17%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.6	0	0.46	0	20%	0
VAN M. Rossi	1.5	1	0.62	0	21%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.4	4	0.35	1	11%	0
CGY S. Nemec	1.4	0	0.39	0	12%	0
CGY R. Strome	1.3	2	0.47	0	14%	0
CGY S. Honzek	1.3	0	0.25	0	12%	0
VAN B. Gallagher	1.2	2	0.27	0	11%	0
VAN A. Räty	1.2	3	0.26	1	12%	1
VAN M. Sasson	1.2	4	0.36	0	18%	0
VAN J. Lekkerimäki	1.1	1	0.31	0	14%	0
VAN Z. Buium	1.1	1	0.33	0	6%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.1	0	0.29	0	11%	0
CGY M. Pospisil	1.1	2	0.25	0	7%	0
VAN J. Oleksiak	1.1	0	0.24	0	5%	0
VAN P. Cotter	1.0	1	0.27	1	14%	0
VAN T. Willander	1.0	0	0.33	2	6%	0
CGY B. Othmann	1.0	1	0.18	0	8%	0
CGY M. Tsyplakov	1.0	0	0.23	0	8%	0
CGY Z. Whitecloud	0.9	2	0.29	0	7%	0
CGY J. Middleton	0.8	1	0.25	0	6%	0
VAN E. Pettersson	0.8	1	0.14	1	4%	1
VAN A. Bains	0.7	0	0.20	0	8%	0
VAN L. Schenn	0.7	0	0.12	0	2%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.7	0	0.24	0	4%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	0	0.15	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.