Game Recap: CGY 3, WPG 5, October 24, 2025

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Game Recap

CGY3

FinalFri, Oct 24, 2025Every game that night

WPG5

WPG beat CGY 5-3, with the chances close: 3.07 expected goals to 3.38. J. Morrissey led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). J. Farabee had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.8. E. Comrie stopped 30 of 33.

Team Stats

CGYWPG

33Shots on goal32

3.38Expected goals3.07

63Shot attempts53

235v5 shots on goal17

1/6Power play2/8

16Hits19

10Blocked shots13

21Penalty minutes19

13Giveaways9

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CGY 3.38 xGWPG 3.07 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CGY33 on goal, 3 scored

WPG30 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
B. Coleman	LW	1	1	2	3	2	0	+2	0	16:56	0:14
M. Backlund	C	1	1	2	4	1	0	+2	0	15:42	0:32
N. Kadri	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	-2	0	20:39	4:58
S. Honzek	LW	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	13:27	0:16
M. Frost	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	2	10:11	5:05
J. Farabee	LW	0	0	0	5	0	0	-1	0	19:37	3:10
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	19:29	4:20
Y. Sharangovich	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-2	0	15:28	2:40
C. Zary	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	13:18	2:34
M. Coronato	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	4	13:16	4:40
A. Klapka	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7	7:40	0:49
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	2	5:27	0:00
K. Bahl	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	2	20:32	0:00
Z. Parekh	D	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:02	4:35
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	0	25:30	3:12
R. Andersson	D	0	0	0	3	0	2	+1	2	22:35	2:19
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	2	1	5	-1	0	16:27	0:00
J. Hanley	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:06	0:15

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	31	27	4	.871	58:29	Loss
D. Cooley	0	0	0	–	0:00

WPG Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Scheifele	C	0	2	2	4	0	0	0	0	21:54	9:29
G. Vilardi	C	1	1	2	2	0	0	-1	0	18:56	8:36
K. Connor	LW	1	0	1	6	1	0	0	0	23:40	8:43
A. Iafallo	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:03	8:48
V. Namestnikov	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	+1	0	15:44	1:48
J. Toews	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:06	1:40
N. Niederreiter	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	4	12:48	2:51
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:16	0:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:11	2:31
M. Barron	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	11:41	0:00
T. Pearson	LW	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	9:49	0:00
N. Chibrikov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	4	8:20	0:00
J. Morrissey	D	0	3	3	2	2	3	+3	0	26:13	7:54
D. DeMelo	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	2	19:59	0:12
L. Stanley	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	5	12:21	0:13
N. Pionk	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	-1	0	24:37	3:19
H. Fleury	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	18:28	0:21
C. Miller	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:16	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
E. Comrie	33	30	3	.909	60:00	Win
C. Hellebuyck	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CGY

Line 1N. Kadri12:58J. Huberdeau12:13M. Coronato8:36

Line 2M. Backlund9:34B. Coleman10:09S. Honzek8:28

Line 3J. Farabee9:47Y. Sharangovich9:02C. Zary8:33

Line 4M. Frost5:06R. Lomberg5:27A. Klapka6:09

Pair 1R. Andersson12:54K. Bahl13:12

Pair 2M. Weegar13:14J. Bean11:08

Pair 3J. Hanley9:02Z. Parekh11:23

WPG

Line 1K. Connor11:27G. Vilardi10:00M. Scheifele9:51

Line 2G. Nyquist8:49V. Namestnikov9:39N. Niederreiter9:31

Line 3J. Toews8:19N. Chibrikov8:20A. Iafallo6:10

Line 4M. Barron7:58C. Koepke7:50T. Pearson8:17

Pair 1D. DeMelo13:37J. Morrissey13:00

Pair 2H. Fleury12:37N. Pionk13:08

Pair 3L. Stanley10:06C. Miller8:16

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CGY 2.5, WPG 3.1	CGY 3, WPG 5
Total goals	5.6	8
Shots on goal	CGY 26.9, WPG 27.9	CGY 33, WPG 32
Win chance	WPG 59%	WPG won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
WPG K. Connor	3.3	6	1.07	1	37%	1
CGY N. Kadri	3.1	3	0.76	1	29%	1
CGY M. Weegar	2.2	0	0.53	0	10%	0
WPG M. Scheifele	2.2	4	0.99	2	35%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.2	3	0.44	2	21%	1
CGY M. Coronato	2.2	4	0.51	0	22%	0
WPG G. Vilardi	2.1	2	0.76	2	30%	1
CGY R. Andersson	2.0	3	0.37	0	9%	0
WPG J. Morrissey	2.0	2	0.67	3	12%	0
CGY M. Backlund	1.9	4	0.35	2	15%	1
CGY J. Farabee	1.8	5	0.37	0	17%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	1.8	2	0.68	0	22%	0
WPG N. Niederreiter	1.8	1	0.43	0	20%	0
WPG N. Pionk	1.7	4	0.40	0	6%	0
WPG A. Iafallo	1.6	2	0.40	1	17%	1
CGY M. Frost	1.5	0	0.40	1	15%	0
WPG J. Toews	1.5	1	0.49	1	18%	1
CGY C. Zary	1.4	1	0.34	0	15%	0
CGY Y. Sharangovich	1.4	1	0.38	0	18%	0
CGY Z. Parekh	1.3	0	0.21	1	6%	0
WPG M. Barron	1.3	1	0.26	0	12%	0
CGY A. Klapka	1.3	1	0.29	0	14%	0
WPG T. Pearson	1.2	0	0.28	0	11%	0
CGY S. Honzek	1.2	1	0.12	1	9%	0
WPG G. Nyquist	1.1	1	0.44	0	15%	0
WPG V. Namestnikov	1.1	3	0.42	1	14%	1
WPG C. Miller	1.1	0	0.21	0	4%	0
WPG N. Chibrikov	1.1	1	0.30	0	14%	0
CGY J. Bean	1.0	2	0.15	0	4%	0
CGY K. Bahl	1.0	1	0.20	1	3%	0
WPG D. DeMelo	1.0	1	0.27	1	4%	0
WPG C. Koepke	1.0	1	0.19	0	10%	0
WPG H. Fleury	0.9	1	0.13	0	2%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	0.9	0	0.14	0	7%	0
WPG L. Stanley	0.8	1	0.20	1	3%	0
CGY J. Hanley	0.6	2	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.