CHI beat ANA 4-2 despite fewer good chances: 3.04 expected goals to 4.60. ANA outshot CHI 40 to 29. C. Bedard led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). R. Strome had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. A. Soderblom stopped 38 of 40.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| ANA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
- 1st 12:57CHII. Phillips0.05 xG
- 1st 16:44CHIT. TeravainenPP0.09 xG
- 2nd 18:05CHIS. JonesPP0.10 xG
- 3rd 10:16ANAB. McGinn0.15 xG
- 3rd 17:43CHIR. Donato0.08 xG
- 3rd 19:56ANAM. McTavishPP0.45 xG
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 3.04 xGANA 4.60 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:41 | 1:40 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:07 | 0:38 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:48 | 0:00 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:44 | 0:38 |
| R. Donato | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:46 | 1:40 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13:20 | 1:40 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:17 | 0:00 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:55 | 0:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 15:06 | 1:40 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10:20 | 0:38 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 8:25 | 0:38 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 25:14 | 0:38 |
| S. Jones | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:40 | 1:40 |
| I. Phillips | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 11:40 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 24:03 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 13:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 40 | 38 | 2 | .950 | 59:56 | Win |
| P. Mrazek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
ANA Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Terry | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:35 | 5:13 |
| M. McTavish | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:40 | 4:40 |
| R. Strome | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:04 | 5:41 |
| B. McGinn | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Johnston | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | +1 | 5 | 7:29 | 0:00 |
| F. Vatrano | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:28 | 4:40 |
| T. Zegras | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:27 | 4:47 |
| A. Killorn | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18:05 | 4:50 |
| C. Gauthier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:43 | 4:42 |
| L. Carlsson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:08 | 4:44 |
| R. Fabbri | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:08 | 0:00 |
| I. Lundestrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9:30 | 0:00 |
| C. Fowler | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:11 | 1:31 |
| O. Zellweger | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:01 | 3:50 |
| P. Mintyukov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:41 | 0:00 |
| B. Dumoulin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| J. LaCombe | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:21 | 4:10 |
| R. Gudas | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.7, ANA 3.1 | CHI 4, ANA 2 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 28.3, ANA 29.2 | CHI 29, ANA 40 |
| Win chance | ANA 57% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI C. Bedard | 3.1 | 5 | 0.87 | 3 | 26% | 0 |
| ANA F. Vatrano | 3.0 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.7 | 1 | 0.57 | 1 | 12% | 1 |
| ANA C. Gauthier | 2.5 | 2 | 0.51 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| ANA T. Terry | 2.5 | 3 | 0.89 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 2.3 | 4 | 0.60 | 2 | 22% | 0 |
| ANA T. Zegras | 2.2 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.1 | 2 | 0.60 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| ANA L. Carlsson | 2.1 | 2 | 0.62 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| ANA A. Killorn | 2.1 | 4 | 0.68 | 0 | 27% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 2.0 | 1 | 0.69 | 1 | 24% | 1 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.0 | 4 | 0.46 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.9 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA M. McTavish | 1.9 | 3 | 0.64 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| ANA R. Fabbri | 1.8 | 1 | 0.61 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.7 | 4 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| ANA R. Strome | 1.7 | 6 | 0.56 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| ANA O. Zellweger | 1.6 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.51 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| ANA P. Mintyukov | 1.4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.4 | 1 | 0.34 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA C. Fowler | 1.2 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| ANA R. Gudas | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA B. McGinn | 1.2 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 15% | 1 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 2 | 0.30 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| ANA B. Dumoulin | 1.1 | 3 | 0.27 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| ANA I. Lundestrom | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 1.0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI I. Phillips | 0.9 | 1 | 0.20 | 1 | 3% | 1 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA J. LaCombe | 0.8 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| ANA R. Johnston | 0.6 | 1 | 0.14 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.6 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.