Game Recap: CHI 5, BOS 2, April 10, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI5

FinalThu, Apr 10, 2025Every game that night

BOS2

CHI beat BOS 5-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.21 expected goals to 2.95. BOS outshot CHI 33 to 21. N. Foligno led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). F. Minten had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. A. Soderblom stopped 31 of 33.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	1	4	5
BOS	1	0	1	2

1st 10:39BOSD. Pastrnak0.23 xG
2nd 7:55CHIN. Foligno0.07 xG
3rd 3:14CHIR. Donato0.16 xG
3rd 4:23CHIT. Bertuzzi0.09 xG
3rd 4:47CHIK. Korchinski0.10 xG
3rd 11:08BOSM. Geekie0.18 xG
3rd 19:33CHIN. FolignoEN0.68 xG

Team Stats

CHIBOS

21Shots on goal33

2.21Expected goals2.95

35Shot attempts59

185v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play0/3

21Hits32

11Blocked shots7

6Penalty minutes4

14Giveaways16

6Takeaways2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.21 xGBOS 2.95 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI21 on goal, 5 scored

BOS33 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Foligno	LW	2	0	2	3	2	0	+2	0	14:05	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	2	0	1	+1	4	17:51	1:54
R. Donato	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+1	0	17:28	0:48
O. Moore	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	15:23	0:48
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	13:45	1:45
P. Kurashev	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	11:41	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	18:02	1:54
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	17:14	1:54
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+3	0	16:48	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	12:25	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:17	0:48
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:38	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	24:54	1:54
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	+1	0	22:07	0:09
K. Korchinski	D	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	15:49	0:48
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	+1	0	20:38	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	4	2	1	+1	2	20:22	0:48
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	5	0	+1	0	14:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	33	31	2	.939	60:00	Win
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
D. Pastrnak	RW	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	0	17:22	1:51
M. Geekie	C	1	1	2	3	4	0	0	0	16:45	1:42
E. Lindholm	C	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	0	18:50	1:33
P. Zacha	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-3	0	17:19	1:17
C. Mittelstadt	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-3	2	16:59	1:49
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	16:38	1:05
F. Minten	C	0	0	0	5	4	0	-1	2	16:07	0:27
F. Lysell	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	15:27	1:04
R. Duran	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	-1	0	13:36	0:27
C. Koepke	LW	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	12:02	0:09
J. Beecher	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:27	0:09
J. Lauko	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	10:13	0:34
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	24:06	1:05
H. Jokiharju	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	21:29	0:51
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-4	0	20:38	1:44
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	2	1	1	-2	0	20:00	0:00
P. Wotherspoon	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	15:37	0:40
M. Callahan	D	0	0	0	1	1	0	+1	0	15:19	0:36

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Swayman	20	16	4	.800	57:06	Loss
J. Korpisalo	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTyler Bertuzzi CHI Faces BOS, his team until Apr 20231 G, 2 SOG
HometownRyan Donato CHI Plays in his hometown1 G, 3 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.7, BOS 3.3	CHI 5, BOS 2
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	CHI 25.2, BOS 28.3	CHI 21, BOS 33
Win chance	BOS 61%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.9	3	1.38	2	45%	1
CHI R. Donato	2.5	3	0.73	1	26%	1
CHI C. Bedard	2.4	2	0.75	1	23%	0
BOS M. Geekie	2.2	3	0.85	2	31%	1
BOS E. Lindholm	2.0	4	0.68	1	25%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	2.0	1	0.27	1	5%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.9	2	0.49	0	22%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.7	1	0.44	0	17%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.7	2	0.55	1	22%	1
BOS F. Lysell	1.7	3	0.30	0	14%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	0	0.72	0	22%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.5	1	0.70	0	21%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	1	0.69	0	21%	0
BOS C. Koepke	1.4	1	0.32	0	16%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	1	0.35	0	10%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.4	0	0.35	1	12%	0
BOS M. Lohrei	1.3	2	0.49	0	8%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	3	0.38	2	14%	2
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	4	0.31	0	4%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.1	5	0.32	0	16%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.1	2	0.28	0	6%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	2	0.25	0	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	0	0.28	1	4%	0
CHI J. Veleno	1.0	0	0.26	0	11%	0
CHI K. Korchinski	1.0	1	0.15	1	4%	1
CHI L. Slaggert	1.0	0	0.22	0	9%	0
CHI P. Maroon	1.0	0	0.26	0	8%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.0	0	0.31	1	11%	0
BOS J. Lauko	1.0	1	0.27	0	11%	0
BOS P. Wotherspoon	0.9	1	0.21	0	3%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.8	1	0.26	0	6%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	0	0.14	0	5%	0
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.8	0	0.26	0	12%	0
BOS J. Beecher	0.7	1	0.20	0	10%	0
BOS M. Callahan	0.7	1	0.15	0	6%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.