Game Recap: CHI 3, BOS 4 (OT), October 9, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI3

Final/OTThu, Oct 9, 2025Every game that night

BOS4

BOS beat CHI 4-3 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 3.90 expected goals to 2.44. BOS outshot CHI 33 to 24. A. Burakovsky led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. McAvoy had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.9. J. Korpisalo stopped 21 of 24.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CHI	1	1	1	0	3
BOS	1	1	1	1	4

1st 3:53BOSC. Mittelstadt0.14 xG
1st 8:19CHIC. Bedard0.09 xG
2nd 2:22CHIL. Crevier0.02 xG
2nd 9:10BOST. Jeannot0.25 xG
3rd 0:15BOSE. LindholmPP0.28 xG
3rd 2:22CHIA. Burakovsky0.18 xG
OT 2:12BOSF. Minten0.17 xG

Team Stats

CHIBOS

24Shots on goal33

2.44Expected goals3.90

51Shot attempts55

195v5 shots on goal26

0/3Power play1/5

15Hits25

6Blocked shots16

14Penalty minutes10

15Giveaways15

7Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.44 xGBOS 3.90 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI24 on goal, 3 scored

BOS32 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+1	0	21:54	3:44
A. Burakovsky	LW	1	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	15:41	1:30
F. Nazar	C	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	4	20:58	3:44
N. Foligno	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	2	15:57	1:03
C. Dach	C	0	1	1	2	6	0	0	0	13:22	1:26
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	20:13	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:31	3:36
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	17:09	1:39
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	16:09	3:39
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	12:03	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	8:25	0:06
A. Levshunov	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	4	17:01	2:30
L. Crevier	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+2	0	8:22	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	23:11	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:10	0:33
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	19:03	2:45
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	0	17:20	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	0	13:34	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	33	29	4	.879	61:18	OT loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

BOS Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
P. Zacha	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	+1	0	21:31	4:56
D. Pastrnak	RW	0	1	1	3	3	0	0	2	20:33	6:26
E. Lindholm	C	1	0	1	5	1	0	0	0	17:12	5:09
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	16:28	1:49
F. Minten	C	1	0	1	3	4	0	0	0	15:35	0:11
T. Jeannot	LW	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	0	13:28	0:00
M. Eyssimont	C	0	1	1	1	1	1	-1	0	12:46	0:44
M. Geekie	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	19:30	5:28
V. Arvidsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	14:57	1:29
S. Kuraly	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	2	12:20	0:00
M. Khusnutdinov	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	2	10:43	2:02
M. Kastelic	C	0	0	0	2	2	2	-1	0	9:19	0:00
H. Jokiharju	D	0	1	1	1	0	2	-1	0	18:28	0:26
C. McAvoy	D	0	0	0	5	1	2	0	2	27:26	5:30
N. Zadorov	D	0	0	0	1	7	1	0	2	25:11	0:16
A. Peeke	D	0	0	0	3	0	6	-1	0	22:13	0:04
M. Lohrei	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+1	0	18:42	1:45
H. Lindholm	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	4:26	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Korpisalo	24	21	3	.875	62:00	Win
J. Swayman	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1F. Nazar14:41T. Bertuzzi12:22T. Teravainen12:13

Line 2R. Donato13:48I. Mikheyev15:06J. Dickinson8:19

Line 3A. Burakovsky12:09C. Dach11:49C. Bedard16:45

Line 4N. Foligno11:13R. Greene10:14

Pair 1W. Kaiser20:24A. Levshunov13:25

Pair 2A. Vlasic12:57S. Rinzel14:33

Pair 3C. Murphy11:39M. Grzelcyk12:58

BOS

Line 1C. Mittelstadt14:39V. Arvidsson13:28P. Zacha12:59

Line 2E. Lindholm11:39D. Pastrnak12:41M. Geekie12:05

Line 3T. Jeannot11:43F. Minten12:14M. Eyssimont11:47

Line 4S. Kuraly8:43M. Khusnutdinov8:41M. Kastelic7:33

Pair 1C. McAvoy19:01M. Lohrei16:20

Pair 2N. Zadorov19:46H. Jokiharju15:21

Pair 3H. Lindholm4:26A. Peeke18:24

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

HometownRyan Donato CHI Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.7, BOS 3.2	CHI 3, BOS 4
Total goals	5.9	7
Shots on goal	CHI 24.6, BOS 27.9	CHI 24, BOS 33
Win chance	BOS 58%	BOS won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BOS D. Pastrnak	3.9	3	1.31	1	43%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	2	0.80	2	25%	1
CHI R. Donato	2.3	1	0.64	0	24%	0
BOS E. Lindholm	2.2	5	0.68	1	25%	1
BOS M. Geekie	2.2	1	0.82	0	30%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	2.1	2	0.45	0	6%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.1	4	0.62	1	23%	0
BOS M. Eyssimont	2.1	1	0.27	1	12%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	2.0	0	0.48	0	22%	0
BOS V. Arvidsson	2.0	2	0.46	0	18%	0
BOS C. McAvoy	1.9	5	0.64	0	13%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	2	0.59	0	23%	0
BOS P. Zacha	1.6	0	0.65	1	20%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.6	2	0.50	2	16%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	0	0.70	0	21%	0
BOS C. Mittelstadt	1.5	2	0.62	1	20%	1
BOS S. Kuraly	1.5	0	0.28	0	13%	0
BOS H. Lindholm	1.4	1	0.39	0	7%	0
BOS N. Zadorov	1.4	1	0.37	0	10%	0
BOS F. Minten	1.3	3	0.27	1	15%	1
BOS M. Lohrei	1.3	0	0.43	0	8%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	2	0.37	1	14%	0
BOS M. Kastelic	1.3	2	0.24	0	11%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.2	2	0.32	1	12%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.2	2	0.38	0	3%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	2	0.21	0	5%	0
BOS H. Jokiharju	1.2	1	0.29	1	6%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	1	0.28	1	3%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	0	0.20	0	5%	0
BOS A. Peeke	1.1	3	0.23	0	4%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	0	0.25	0	3%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.0	0	0.27	0	12%	0
BOS T. Jeannot	1.0	3	0.23	1	12%	1
BOS M. Khusnutdinov	0.9	0	0.27	0	12%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	2	0.13	1	4%	1

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.