Game Recap: CHI 2, BUF 6, December 27, 2024

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Game Recap

CHI2

FinalFri, Dec 27, 2024Every game that night

BUF6

BUF beat CHI 6-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.18 expected goals to 1.74. BUF outshot CHI 35 to 17. A. Tuch scored three for BUF. Z. Benson had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.5. U. Luukkonen stopped 15 of 17.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	1	1	2
BUF	4	0	2	6

1st 9:51BUFZ. Benson0.10 xG
1st 12:23BUFA. Tuch0.08 xG
1st 12:38BUFJ. Quinn0.13 xG
1st 19:18BUFD. Cozens0.10 xG
2nd 16:39CHIT. Bertuzzi0.06 xG
3rd 3:06CHIS. Jones0.13 xG
3rd 5:48BUFA. Tuch0.03 xG
3rd 15:06BUFA. Tuch0.24 xG

Team Stats

CHIBUF

17Shots on goal35

1.74Expected goals4.18

44Shot attempts62

165v5 shots on goal32

0/1Power play0/1

35Hits24

9Blocked shots11

4Penalty minutes4

18Giveaways8

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.74 xGBUF 4.18 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI17 on goal, 2 scored

BUF34 on goal, 6 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	4	2	0	-1	0	20:11	1:20
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	-1	0	16:21	1:19
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	-1	0	16:10	0:43
L. Reichel	LW	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	14:31	0:40
P. Maroon	LW	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	14:06	0:41
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:44	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	14:37	1:17
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	14:34	1:18
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	-2	0	14:28	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	-2	0	13:57	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	-2	0	12:34	0:42
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	11:24	0:00
S. Jones	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	0	23:16	1:28
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	5	2	-3	0	21:42	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-2	0	21:14	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:43	0:00
K. Korchinski	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	2	16:51	0:32
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-2	2	15:37	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	11	7	4	.636	20:00	Loss
A. Soderblom	24	22	2	.917	40:00

BUF Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
A. Tuch	RW	3	0	3	3	0	0	+2	2	16:26	0:57
D. Cozens	C	1	1	2	1	0	1	+2	0	15:56	1:13
J. Quinn	RW	1	1	2	4	1	0	+2	0	14:48	0:46
T. Thompson	C	0	1	1	1	3	0	+2	0	16:49	1:03
J. Peterka	RW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+3	0	16:16	1:02
Z. Benson	LW	1	0	1	6	0	0	+1	0	15:43	1:14
R. McLeod	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	-1	0	11:56	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	-1	0	10:53	0:00
J. Zucker	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	16:35	0:47
J.Kulich	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	0	15:55	0:46
P. Krebs	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	2	15:36	0:00
B. Malenstyn	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	10:58	0:00
R. Dahlin	D	0	2	2	3	2	1	+3	0	21:17	1:34
B. Byram	D	0	1	1	0	4	1	+3	0	21:37	0:00
O. Power	D	0	0	0	3	0	4	0	0	20:50	0:26
M. Samuelsson	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	20:18	0:12
C. Clifton	D	0	0	0	1	6	1	+1	0	18:52	0:00
J. Bryson	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	15:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
U. Luukkonen	17	15	2	.882	59:46	Win
J. Reimer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamBowen Byram CHI First game back in Buffalo, his team until May 20261 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.7, BUF 3.5	CHI 2, BUF 6
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	CHI 25.7, BUF 30.5	CHI 17, BUF 35
Win chance	BUF 62%	BUF won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
BUF T. Thompson	3.1	1	0.96	1	40%	0
BUF R. Dahlin	2.5	3	0.79	2	16%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	4	0.91	1	26%	0
BUF J. Peterka	2.4	2	0.71	1	28%	0
BUF A. Tuch	2.3	3	0.84	3	29%	3
BUF D. Cozens	2.3	1	0.63	2	24%	1
BUF J. Zucker	2.2	1	0.64	0	25%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.1	1	0.53	0	21%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.1	2	0.49	1	11%	1
BUF J.Kulich	2.1	2	0.39	0	20%	0
BUF J. Quinn	2.0	4	0.57	2	22%	1
CHI T. Hall	1.9	0	0.60	1	21%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	3	0.62	1	25%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	0	0.44	0	20%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.6	0	0.65	0	21%	0
BUF O. Power	1.6	3	0.54	0	8%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.5	1	0.47	0	18%	0
BUF Z. Benson	1.5	6	0.48	1	18%	1
CHI A. Vlasic	1.4	2	0.33	0	5%	0
BUF B. Byram	1.3	0	0.56	1	13%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	0	0.39	0	18%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	0	0.25	0	6%	0
BUF R. McLeod	1.1	3	0.42	1	17%	0
BUF M. Samuelsson	1.1	0	0.22	0	4%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.1	2	0.41	0	14%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	0	0.30	1	11%	0
BUF B. Malenstyn	1.0	2	0.25	0	10%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.0	0	0.33	0	15%	0
BUF P. Krebs	0.9	3	0.33	0	11%	0
CHI K. Korchinski	0.9	1	0.16	0	5%	0
BUF C. Clifton	0.9	1	0.24	0	4%	0
BUF S. Lafferty	0.8	0	0.22	1	12%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	1	0.23	1	8%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	0	0.24	0	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.5	0	0.25	0	5%	0
BUF J. Bryson	0.4	0	0.16	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 16 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.