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Game Recap
CHI2
CAR3
CAR beat CHI 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.11 expected goals to 1.77. J. Jaaska led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). P. Kochetkov stopped 18 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| CAR | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 16:57CARS. JarvisSH0.29 xG
- 1st 18:38CHII. Mikheyev0.25 xG
- 2nd 4:52CARM. Rantanen0.11 xG
- 2nd 5:59CARJ. Slavin0.44 xG
- 3rd 6:29CHIC. Bedard0.18 xG
Team Stats
CHICAR
20Shots on goal27
1.77Expected goals4.11
41Shot attempts52
175v5 shots on goal21
0/2Power play0/2
18Hits15
17Blocked shots13
4Penalty minutes6
22Giveaways17
7Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 1.77 xGCAR 4.11 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:47 | 2:44 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:33 | 0:00 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:09 | 0:00 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:22 | 0:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:54 | 2:30 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:23 | 2:43 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:05 | 2:28 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:38 | 1:17 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:25 | 0:00 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:09 | 1:16 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:24 | 1:14 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 9:51 | 1:12 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | +1 | 0 | 25:22 | 2:21 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:15 | 0:18 |
| A. Martinez | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 1:21 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:58 | 0:00 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:57 | 0:18 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:47 | 0:18 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 27 | 24 | 3 | .889 | 57:51 | Loss |
| P. Mrazek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CAR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Jaaska | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 8:59 | 0:00 |
| S. Jarvis | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 21:42 | 1:01 |
| M. Rantanen | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:43 | 2:30 |
| J. Blake | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:04 | 0:40 |
| J. Roslovic | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 1:50 |
| A. Svechnikov | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:03 | 2:30 |
| J. Kotkaniemi | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:33 | 0:00 |
| E. Robinson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:01 | 0:00 |
| J. Martinook | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:00 |
| J. Staal | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:40 | 0:00 |
| R. Suzuki | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 6:12 | 0:00 |
| J. Slavin | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | +2 | 2 | 25:51 | 0:30 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:00 |
| B. Burns | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:43 | 1:11 |
| J. Chatfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:12 | 0:00 |
| S. Gostisbehere | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:30 | 1:19 |
| S. Walker | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:16 | 0:59 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Kochetkov | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 60:00 | Win |
| F. Andersen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.1, CAR 3.6 | CHI 2, CAR 3 |
| Total goals | 5.7 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 21.4, CAR 35.8 | CHI 20, CAR 27 |
| Win chance | CAR 74% | CAR won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR M. Rantanen | 3.1 | 5 | 1.34 | 1 | 42% | 1 |
| CAR A. Svechnikov | 2.8 | 5 | 0.89 | 0 | 31% | 0 |
| CAR S. Jarvis | 2.6 | 4 | 0.89 | 1 | 33% | 1 |
| CAR B. Burns | 2.3 | 1 | 0.52 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.3 | 2 | 0.79 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CAR J. Blake | 2.0 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CAR J. Martinook | 1.9 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.8 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI S. Jones | 1.7 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR J. Staal | 1.7 | 0 | 0.51 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR S. Walker | 1.7 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CAR D. Orlov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CAR S. Gostisbehere | 1.6 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CAR J. Kotkaniemi | 1.6 | 1 | 0.48 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Roslovic | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CAR J. Slavin | 1.6 | 3 | 0.46 | 1 | 7% | 1 |
| CAR J. Chatfield | 1.5 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CAR E. Robinson | 1.5 | 3 | 0.41 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.5 | 3 | 0.32 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.4 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.2 | 0 | 0.36 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.32 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.1 | 3 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 0.9 | 2 | 0.22 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CAR J. Jaaska | 0.9 | 1 | 0.18 | 2 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 0.9 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.4 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.4 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.