Game Recap: CHI 4, CAR 3 (SO), January 22, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI4

Final/SOThu, Jan 22, 2026Every game that night

CAR3

CHI beat CAR 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.64 expected goals to 3.98. CAR outshot CHI 31 to 22. I. Mikheyev led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). F. Nazar had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. S. Knight stopped 28 of 31.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CHI	1	1	1	1	4
CAR	1	1	1	0	3

1st 11:12CHII. MikheyevSH0.44 xG
1st 12:50CARJ. Nystrom0.12 xG
2nd 4:35CHIN. Lardis0.24 xG
2nd 9:16CARJ. Staal0.12 xG
3rd 13:38CHIC. Murphy0.22 xG
3rd 14:20CARJ. Blake0.28 xG

Team Stats

CHICAR

22Shots on goal31

2.64Expected goals3.98

37Shot attempts70

165v5 shots on goal24

0/1Power play0/5

22Hits29

14Blocked shots6

15Penalty minutes7

11Giveaways13

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.64 xGCAR 3.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI21 on goal, 3 scored

CAR30 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	1	2	2	0	1	+2	0	18:35	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	2	18:46	2:00
O. Moore	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-1	7	12:51	0:00
N. Lardis	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	11:30	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	10:49	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	20:49	2:00
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	18:49	1:17
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	18:30	0:43
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:13	2:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:22	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	0	6	1	0	0	10:11	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	0	10:06	0:00
C. Murphy	D	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	22:17	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	25:37	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:40	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	5	4	0	0	22:21	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	2	16:37	2:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:57	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	31	28	3	.903	65:00	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

CAR Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Staal	C	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	18:14	2:25
J. Blake	RW	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	15:37	3:34
T. Hall	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	15:35	3:31
J. Martinook	LW	0	1	1	0	5	0	0	0	14:21	0:07
L. Stankoven	C	0	1	1	3	1	0	0	0	14:14	3:06
J. Kotkaniemi	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	0	9:33	0:00
S. Aho	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	23:36	6:46
S. Jarvis	C	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	22:17	6:19
A. Svechnikov	RW	0	0	0	1	2	1	-1	0	22:12	6:23
N. Ehlers	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-2	0	19:30	7:06
W. Carrier	LW	0	0	0	3	4	1	+2	0	12:41	0:07
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	0	9:23	0:23
J. Slavin	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	23:32	0:13
J. Nystrom	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	2	10:43	0:00
K. Miller	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	25:39	4:49
S. Walker	D	0	0	0	3	6	0	-1	0	20:18	0:00
J. Chatfield	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	+2	0	19:59	0:13
A. Nikishin	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	5	15:47	4:58

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
F. Andersen	22	19	3	.864	64:49	OT loss
B. Bussi	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky15:02C. Bedard15:51R. Greene11:48

Line 2T. Bertuzzi15:46F. Nazar14:44I. Mikheyev10:48

Line 3N. Foligno9:55C. Dach10:00L. Slaggert9:01

Line 4R. Donato10:49O. Moore8:33N. Lardis10:43

Pair 1A. Vlasic18:24L. Crevier18:13

Pair 2C. Murphy16:12W. Kaiser17:01

Pair 3M. Grzelcyk12:31A. Levshunov13:44

CAR

Line 1S. Aho14:09S. Jarvis13:21A. Svechnikov13:37

Line 2J. Staal13:43J. Martinook13:00N. Ehlers10:00

Line 3T. Hall11:59J. Blake12:03L. Stankoven11:08

Line 4W. Carrier12:23J. Kotkaniemi9:22M. Jankowski8:49

Pair 1J. Slavin19:38J. Chatfield18:31

Pair 2K. Miller19:18S. Walker17:41

Pair 3J. Nystrom10:32A. Nikishin9:51

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamTaylor Hall CAR Faces CHI, his team until Jan 20251 A, 0 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.5, CAR 3.7	CHI 4, CAR 3
Total goals	6.2	7
Shots on goal	CHI 21.2, CAR 33.1	CHI 22, CAR 31
Win chance	CAR 69%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CAR S. Jarvis	3.0	4	0.92	0	34%	0
CAR N. Ehlers	2.7	3	0.89	0	29%	0
CAR A. Svechnikov	2.6	1	0.84	0	29%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	3	0.86	0	26%	0
CAR S. Aho	2.4	3	1.01	0	33%	0
CAR S. Walker	2.2	3	0.30	0	9%	0
CAR L. Stankoven	1.9	3	0.47	1	18%	0
CAR J. Blake	1.9	3	0.49	1	21%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	0	0.63	1	26%	0
CAR T. Hall	1.7	0	0.51	1	20%	0
CAR J. Staal	1.6	1	0.49	1	19%	1
CAR K. Miller	1.6	1	0.48	0	11%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	2	0.41	2	20%	1
CHI R. Donato	1.5	1	0.48	1	20%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.5	1	0.63	0	19%	0
CAR A. Nikishin	1.5	1	0.42	0	10%	0
CAR J. Martinook	1.5	0	0.44	1	17%	0
CAR J. Chatfield	1.5	0	0.29	0	10%	0
CAR J. Slavin	1.5	1	0.35	1	8%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.4	4	0.45	0	15%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.4	1	0.40	0	15%	0
CAR W. Carrier	1.3	3	0.26	0	14%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.3	2	0.25	1	13%	1
CAR J. Kotkaniemi	1.2	2	0.33	1	13%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	0	0.38	0	4%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.2	1	0.20	0	6%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.1	2	0.36	1	12%	0
CAR J. Nystrom	1.0	2	0.23	1	3%	1
CAR M. Jankowski	1.0	0	0.29	0	14%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	0	0.21	0	8%	0
CHI N. Foligno	0.9	1	0.34	0	12%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.9	2	0.18	0	5%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.8	1	0.24	0	2%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.8	1	0.15	1	3%	1
CHI C. Dach	0.8	0	0.19	0	7%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.