Game Recap: CHI 1, CGY 3, October 15, 2024

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalTue, Oct 15, 2024Every game that night

CGY3

CGY beat CHI 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 2.98 expected goals to 2.14. M. Coronato led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). C. Bedard had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. D. Wolf stopped 31 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	0	0	1
CGY	1	1	1	3

1st 16:01CGYM. Coronato0.13 xG
1st 16:11CHIN. Foligno0.10 xG
2nd 13:32CGYA. KuzmenkoPP0.14 xG
3rd 19:21CGYM. CoronatoEN0.86 xG

Team Stats

CHICGY

32Shots on goal27

2.14Expected goals2.98

64Shot attempts53

285v5 shots on goal20

0/2Power play1/3

14Hits29

18Blocked shots21

6Penalty minutes4

12Giveaways19

9Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.14 xGCGY 2.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI32 on goal, 1 scored

CGY27 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	3	2	1	0	2	18:46	1:53
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	20:24	2:28
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	7	0	0	0	2	20:14	2:30
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	2	18:06	1:32
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	17:37	2:28
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	16:57	1:35
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:24	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	13:16	0:00
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:03	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:06	2:07
C. Smith	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	9:14	0:00
A. Athanasiou	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	9:12	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	0	25:25	2:38
A. Martinez	D	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	18:59	1:21
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	-1	0	20:25	1:28
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:11	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0	17:17	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	15:29	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	26	24	2	.923	58:19	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

CGY Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Coronato	RW	2	0	2	3	3	0	+2	0	12:46	0:03
J. Huberdeau	LW	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	18:48	3:25
M. Backlund	C	0	1	1	2	1	0	+1	0	18:45	1:50
C. Zary	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:06	3:55
A. Kuzmenko	LW	1	0	1	2	1	1	-1	0	13:49	3:31
J. Kirkland	C	0	1	1	1	1	3	+1	0	11:56	0:04
N. Kadri	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	17:04	3:52
B. Coleman	LW	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	16:53	1:50
A. Mantha	RW	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	0	16:02	2:04
S. Honzek	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	13:48	1:38
M. Pospisil	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	12:44	0:00
R. Lomberg	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	+1	0	11:34	0:00
R. Andersson	D	0	1	1	1	0	3	+1	2	23:09	2:19
M. Weegar	D	0	0	0	4	3	3	0	0	23:58	3:32
K. Bahl	D	0	0	0	2	3	4	+1	0	20:16	0:00
D. Miromanov	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	18:10	0:00
J. Bean	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:47	0:06
B. Pachal	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	2	12:53	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Wolf	32	31	1	.969	59:32	Win
D. Vladar	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.5, CGY 3.7	CHI 1, CGY 3
Total goals	6.3	4
Shots on goal	CHI 25.0, CGY 35.2	CHI 32, CGY 27
Win chance	CGY 68%	CGY won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CGY N. Kadri	3.6	3	1.05	0	33%	0
CGY B. Coleman	2.8	4	0.71	0	29%	0
CGY M. Backlund	2.7	2	0.63	1	22%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.6	7	0.90	0	25%	0
CGY M. Weegar	2.3	4	0.64	0	13%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.1	3	0.63	0	22%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.1	4	0.49	1	10%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	2	0.64	0	24%	0
CGY J. Huberdeau	2.0	0	0.90	1	23%	0
CGY A. Kuzmenko	2.0	2	0.92	1	35%	1
CGY M. Pospisil	1.9	1	0.54	0	16%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.9	2	0.73	0	24%	0
CGY C. Zary	1.8	1	0.69	1	25%	0
CGY R. Andersson	1.8	1	0.61	1	10%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.7	3	0.48	1	17%	1
CGY A. Mantha	1.6	1	0.62	0	23%	0
CGY D. Miromanov	1.6	0	0.33	0	8%	0
CGY M. Coronato	1.6	3	0.30	2	12%	2
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.5	1	0.39	0	17%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.5	0	0.55	0	17%	0
CHI A. Athanasiou	1.4	3	0.36	0	15%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.4	2	0.30	0	13%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	0	0.37	0	16%	0
CGY B. Pachal	1.1	1	0.20	0	4%	0
CHI J. Anderson	1.1	1	0.30	0	12%	0
CGY R. Lomberg	1.0	1	0.16	0	11%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.0	1	0.23	1	5%	0
CGY J. Bean	0.9	0	0.28	0	6%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.9	1	0.16	0	6%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.8	1	0.23	0	4%	0
CGY K. Bahl	0.8	2	0.21	0	3%	0
CGY J. Kirkland	0.8	1	0.20	1	11%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	0	0.24	0	8%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.7	1	0.25	0	3%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	0	0.26	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.