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Game Recap
CHI4
CGY6
CGY beat CHI 6-4, and the chances backed it up: 3.78 expected goals to 2.87. T. Bertuzzi led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). M. Coronato had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. D. Wolf stopped 24 of 28.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| CGY | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 12:19CGYJ. HuberdeauSH0.16 xG
- 1st 13:26CGYN. Kadri0.04 xG
- 2nd 10:09CHIC. Bedard0.14 xG
- 2nd 10:37CGYC. Zary0.13 xG
- 2nd 12:40CGYM. CoronatoPP0.14 xG
- 2nd 17:51CGYB. Coleman0.08 xG
- 3rd 0:57CHIT. Bertuzzi0.54 xG
- 3rd 11:30CHIT. BertuzziPP0.24 xG
- 3rd 18:52CHII. Mikheyev0.23 xG
- 3rd 19:37CGYM. BacklundEN0.90 xG
Team Stats
CHICGY
28Shots on goal30
2.87Expected goals3.78
54Shot attempts53
195v5 shots on goal21
1/3Power play1/5
12Hits27
14Blocked shots19
36Penalty minutes32
15Giveaways16
4Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.87 xGCGY 3.78 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23:58 | 2:18 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 17:39 | 2:27 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:23 | 2:23 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:17 | 1:37 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 18:22 | 0:13 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:14 | 0:00 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 1:38 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 12:40 | 2:16 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 14 | 11:46 | 1:35 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:58 | 1:33 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:20 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 26:42 | 2:28 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:37 | 0:38 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 18:59 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 0 | 18:26 | 0:00 |
| K. Korchinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:33 | 0:54 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 14:28 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Mrazek | 29 | 24 | 5 | .828 | 57:29 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
CGY Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Coronato | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:41 | 4:16 |
| B. Coleman | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:14 | 3:05 |
| J. Huberdeau | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 19:01 | 4:56 |
| C. Zary | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:19 | 4:33 |
| M. Backlund | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 20:56 | 3:30 |
| N. Kadri | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:56 | 3:24 |
| Y. Sharangovich | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:14 | 3:44 |
| J. Pelletier | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 10:17 | 0:00 |
| M. Pospisil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 14:42 | 2:54 |
| K. Rooney | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 0:41 |
| W. Duehr | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9:26 | 0:33 |
| R. Lomberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:41 | 0:31 |
| M. Weegar | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:05 | 5:14 |
| J. Bean | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:48 |
| R. Andersson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 25:59 | 3:25 |
| K. Bahl | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 2 | 21:55 | 1:01 |
| J. Hanley | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 15:19 | 0:30 |
| B. Pachal | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 10 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.6, CGY 3.3 | CHI 4, CGY 6 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 10 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 25.4, CGY 32.3 | CHI 28, CGY 30 |
| Win chance | CGY 62% | CGY won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY N. Kadri | 3.4 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 32% | 1 |
| CGY M. Backlund | 2.6 | 6 | 0.57 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.4 | 3 | 0.82 | 3 | 23% | 1 |
| CGY B. Coleman | 2.4 | 3 | 0.62 | 2 | 27% | 1 |
| CGY M. Coronato | 2.2 | 6 | 0.56 | 2 | 22% | 1 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.2 | 2 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CGY M. Weegar | 2.2 | 1 | 0.56 | 2 | 12% | 0 |
| CGY J. Huberdeau | 2.1 | 2 | 0.90 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| CGY Y. Sharangovich | 2.0 | 0 | 0.57 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 1.9 | 0 | 0.55 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| CGY M. Pospisil | 1.9 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CGY R. Andersson | 1.8 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.8 | 3 | 0.58 | 3 | 23% | 2 |
| CGY C. Zary | 1.7 | 2 | 0.56 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.6 | 5 | 0.40 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.6 | 2 | 0.61 | 2 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.4 | 2 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CGY J. Pelletier | 1.4 | 0 | 0.33 | 1 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.3 | 4 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.2 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY B. Pachal | 1.1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY K. Bahl | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CGY J. Bean | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI K. Korchinski | 1.0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CGY W. Duehr | 0.9 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CGY K. Rooney | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.8 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CGY R. Lomberg | 0.8 | 1 | 0.15 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI J. Anderson | 0.8 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CGY J. Hanley | 0.6 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.5 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.5 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.