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Game Recap
CHI4
FinalFri, Nov 7, 2025Every game that night
CGY0

CHI beat CGY 4-0, with the chances close: 2.06 expected goals to 2.23. C. Bedard led the way with 4 points (1 G, 3 A). M. Coronato had 11 shots on goal against our projection of 2.2. S. Knight stopped 33 of 33.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CHI1034
CGY0000
  1. 1st 12:32CHIT. BertuzziPP0.12 xG
  2. 3rd 1:11CHIT. Bertuzzi0.05 xG
  3. 3rd 7:56CHIA. Burakovsky0.20 xG
  4. 3rd 18:01CHIC. Bedard0.49 xG

Team Stats

CHICGY
27Shots on goal33
2.06Expected goals2.23
47Shot attempts55
235v5 shots on goal30
1/3Power play0/3
18Hits29
10Blocked shots13
21Penalty minutes21
17Giveaways14
10Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.06 xGCGY 2.23 xGGoal

00.511.522.51st2nd3rdCHI goal, 12:32CHI goal, 1:11CHI goal, 7:56CHI goal, 18:01

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI27 on goal, 4 scored
CGY32 on goal, 0 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC134400+3021:323:46
T. BertuzziLW202310+3019:583:49
A. BurakovskyLW112410+3019:093:46
T. TeravainenC0000000219:533:37
I. MikheyevRW0001010019:390:07
R. GreeneC0000200018:531:12
R. DonatoC0001110015:181:03
O. MooreC0002000014:210:41
C. DachC0003400514:010:38
N. FolignoLW0001320712:080:15
F. NazarC000000003:190:00
A. LevshunovD0110100017:304:01
A. VlasicD000103+1520:240:00
W. KaiserD000002+1019:380:00
M. GrzelcykD000401+1015:590:22
S. RinzelD000120+2015:130:48
L. CrevierD000130+1214:170:00
C. MurphyD0001000012:480:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
S. Knight333301.00060:00Win
A. Soderblom000–0:00

CGY Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. HuberdeauLW000410-1019:523:12
N. KadriC000300-1019:453:36
M. CoronatoRW0001101-1019:003:59
M. FrostC000210-1016:462:48
J. FarabeeLW000111-1516:330:50
C. ZaryC0001000016:011:41
B. ColemanLW000121-1215:052:45
M. BacklundC000411-1014:160:00
Y. SharangovichC000110-1013:403:01
S. HonzekLW000030-1012:420:00
A. KlapkaRW0000510010:560:00
R. LombergLW000040007:200:00
R. AnderssonD000013-2227:073:07
M. WeegarD000034-3523:492:29
Y. KuznetsovD0004200022:310:00
J. HanleyD000100-1717:150:00
B. PachalD0000310016:400:00
Z. ParekhD000010006:251:16
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Wolf27234.85259:07Loss
D. Cooley000–0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard17:35A. Burakovsky15:12T. Bertuzzi16:09
Line 2R. Donato14:02I. Mikheyev15:28O. Moore12:40
Line 3T. Teravainen14:27R. Greene14:22N. Foligno9:43
Pair 1W. Kaiser16:44A. Levshunov12:48
Pair 2A. Vlasic16:28S. Rinzel14:12
Pair 3M. Grzelcyk15:37L. Crevier12:43

CGY

Line 1J. Huberdeau15:01M. Coronato14:59M. Frost13:45
Line 2N. Kadri15:17J. Farabee14:27C. Zary14:09
Line 3M. Backlund11:17S. Honzek9:58B. Coleman10:43
Line 4A. Klapka10:32R. Lomberg7:20Y. Sharangovich10:39
Pair 1R. Andersson21:23Y. Kuznetsov19:51
Pair 2M. Weegar18:53J. Hanley15:40
Pair 3B. Pachal14:52Z. Parekh5:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.8, CGY 3.3CHI 4, CGY 0
Total goals6.14
Shots on goalCHI 25.2, CGY 31.8CHI 27, CGY 33
Win chanceCGY 59%CHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
CGY N. Kadri3.630.99035%0
CHI C. Bedard2.640.84426%1
CGY B. Coleman2.610.60026%0
CGY M. Backlund2.340.48019%0
CHI F. Nazar2.300.66025%0
CGY J. Farabee2.310.52022%0
CGY M. Weegar2.200.60012%0
CGY M. Coronato2.2110.60024%0
CGY R. Andersson2.200.49012%0
CGY J. Huberdeau2.040.87027%0
CHI T. Bertuzzi2.030.63226%2
CGY M. Frost1.920.57019%0
CHI R. Donato1.910.54022%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.910.46022%0
CHI A. Burakovsky1.840.61220%1
CGY C. Zary1.810.46019%0
CHI S. Rinzel1.610.3306%0
CGY S. Honzek1.600.27013%0
CGY Y. Sharangovich1.610.49022%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.400.62020%0
CGY A. Klapka1.300.32015%0
CHI O. Moore1.320.39011%0
CHI N. Foligno1.210.37014%0
CGY Z. Parekh1.200.2808%0
CHI C. Dach1.130.25010%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.000.1704%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.010.2203%0
CHI R. Greene1.000.29014%0
CGY R. Lomberg0.900.1608%0
CHI A. Levshunov0.900.2512%0
CHI M. Grzelcyk0.840.2101%0
CHI C. Murphy0.810.1403%0
CGY B. Pachal0.800.1804%0
CGY J. Hanley0.810.2004%0
CHI L. Crevier0.810.1504%0

Shots on goal: 17 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.