Game Recap: CHI 5, COL 2, October 28, 2024

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CHI5

FinalMon, Oct 28, 2024Every game that night

COL2

CHI beat COL 5-2, and the chances backed it up: 4.24 expected goals to 2.79. R. Donato led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). C. Mittelstadt had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.1. P. Mrazek stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	3	0	2	5
COL	2	0	0	2

1st 8:47CHIP. KurashevPP0.11 xG
1st 10:16COLC. Mittelstadt0.16 xG
1st 11:04CHIL. Reichel0.03 xG
1st 16:56CHIR. Donato0.25 xG
1st 19:17COLN. MacKinnonPP0.15 xG
3rd 19:02CHIR. DonatoEN0.73 xG
3rd 19:41CHII. MikheyevEN0.63 xG

Team Stats

CHICOL

26Shots on goal26

4.24Expected goals2.79

52Shot attempts56

205v5 shots on goal14

1/3Power play1/4

15Hits19

17Blocked shots13

8Penalty minutes6

10Giveaways17

7Takeaways8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 4.24 xGCOL 2.79 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI26 on goal, 5 scored

COL26 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Donato	C	2	1	3	4	3	0	+3	0	11:59	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	2	2	1	0	0	+3	0	17:32	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	1	0	1	4	0	1	0	0	18:01	2:23
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+3	0	16:42	0:00
C. Smith	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	13:34	1:58
L. Reichel	LW	1	0	1	1	1	1	+1	0	11:44	3:28
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:16	3:50
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:36	3:23
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	14:47	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	-1	0	14:11	2:20
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	13:46	3:28
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	+1	0	11:04	1:46
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	2	0	4	+3	0	24:20	2:09
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+2	2	22:00	0:34
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+2	0	25:39	3:41
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	4	15:28	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:28	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:22	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	26	24	2	.923	60:00	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	-4	0	24:57	5:12
C. Mittelstadt	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	21:55	5:33
L. O'Connor	RW	0	1	1	1	1	2	+1	0	16:12	0:00
M. Rantanen	RW	0	0	0	0	0	3	-4	0	25:13	5:39
N. Kovalenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:10	1:23
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-1	0	15:00	4:59
J. Kiviranta	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:47	0:06
M. Wood	LW	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	2	14:38	1:21
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	12:00	0:00
I. Ivan	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-2	0	11:14	2:01
C. Wagner	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	5:11	0:00
M. Stienburg	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	3:14	0:00
C. Makar	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	-4	0	26:17	5:24
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	2	1	1	+1	0	13:58	0:00
D. Toews	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	22:10	1:40
S. Girard	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	20:19	1:48
C. de Haan	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	2	16:26	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Georgiev	24	21	3	.875	58:07	Loss
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.6, COL 3.9	CHI 5, COL 2
Total goals	6.5	7
Shots on goal	CHI 25.9, COL 34.3	CHI 26, COL 26
Win chance	COL 69%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.8	1	1.68	1	45%	1
COL M. Rantanen	3.4	0	1.39	0	44%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.9	2	0.89	0	26%	0
COL R. Colton	2.7	3	0.74	0	31%	0
COL C. Makar	2.7	4	1.16	1	20%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.4	0	0.54	0	10%	0
COL M. Wood	2.3	2	0.37	0	17%	0
COL C. Mittelstadt	2.1	5	0.91	1	25%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.1	2	0.60	0	24%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	2.1	0	0.76	0	26%	0
CHI N. Foligno	2.1	0	0.53	0	20%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.0	2	0.56	0	21%	0
COL D. Toews	1.8	1	0.63	0	10%	0
COL J. Manson	1.7	0	0.41	0	9%	0
COL L. O'Connor	1.7	1	0.44	1	17%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	1	0.37	1	17%	1
CHI R. Donato	1.6	4	0.37	3	16%	2
CHI C. Smith	1.5	2	0.32	1	15%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.4	1	0.27	0	13%	0
COL N. Kovalenko	1.3	1	0.42	0	15%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	1	0.36	2	16%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.3	4	0.47	1	15%	1
COL I. Ivan	1.3	1	0.34	0	13%	0
COL S. Malinski	1.3	2	0.37	1	6%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.2	1	0.30	1	11%	1
COL S. Girard	1.1	1	0.42	0	5%	0
COL J. Kiviranta	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
COL C. Haan	1.1	2	0.21	0	5%	0
COL C. Wagner	1.0	0	0.13	0	8%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	1	0.19	1	5%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	2	0.26	1	4%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.8	3	0.27	0	9%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.7	1	0.23	0	2%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.7	0	0.26	0	3%	0
COL M. Stienburg	0.7	0	0.14	0	8%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.6	0	0.24	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 23 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.