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Game Recap
CHI0
COL3
COL beat CHI 3-0, and the chances backed it up: 3.68 expected goals to 1.57. N. MacKinnon led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. Bedard had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 2.5. S. Wedgewood stopped 20 of 20.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
- 3rd 0:31COLA. Lehkonen0.07 xG
- 3rd 3:27COLM. Necas0.20 xG
- 3rd 19:06COLJ. KivirantaEN0.92 xG
Team Stats
CHICOL
20Shots on goal21
1.57Expected goals3.68
43Shot attempts52
165v5 shots on goal18
0/4Power play0/3
18Hits26
15Blocked shots9
6Penalty minutes8
16Giveaways10
6Takeaways8
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 1.57 xGCOL 3.68 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 2 | 22:14 | 3:49 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:01 | 3:49 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 17:16 | 0:00 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:14 | 3:49 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 16:19 | 0:08 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:23 | 0:55 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:04 | 0:51 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -3 | 0 | 14:41 | 0:49 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 3:49 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:04 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 10:14 | 0:48 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:03 | 0:10 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 24:38 | 3:22 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22:17 | 0:11 |
| E. Del Mastro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:47 | 0:11 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 21:09 | 0:00 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 20:55 | 1:15 |
| A. Martinez | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 59:06 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
COL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. MacKinnon | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:58 | 4:26 |
| M. Necas | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 19:21 | 4:00 |
| A. Lehkonen | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:37 |
| J. Kiviranta | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 9:37 | 0:00 |
| V. Nichushkin | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:50 | 3:58 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 16:24 | 3:27 |
| C. Coyle | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| J. Drouin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:23 | 1:13 |
| J. Drury | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:45 | 0:00 |
| M. Wood | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11:06 | 0:00 |
| R. Colton | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:53 | 0:36 |
| J. Vesey | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| D. Toews | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:58 | 0:32 |
| C. Makar | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 2 | 23:27 | 4:09 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 19:43 | 0:04 |
| J. Manson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 19:38 | 0:00 |
| S. Girard | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:52 | 0:14 |
| E. Johnson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:01 | 0:04 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Wedgewood | 20 | 20 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Blackwood | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.3, COL 3.9 | CHI 0, COL 3 |
| Total goals | 6.3 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 22.2, COL 34.5 | CHI 20, COL 21 |
| Win chance | COL 74% | COL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL N. MacKinnon | 4.5 | 6 | 1.65 | 2 | 43% | 0 |
| COL M. Necas | 3.1 | 1 | 1.05 | 1 | 31% | 1 |
| COL B. Nelson | 3.0 | 0 | 0.97 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| COL C. Makar | 3.0 | 1 | 1.19 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL V. Nichushkin | 2.8 | 1 | 0.93 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| COL A. Lehkonen | 2.5 | 2 | 0.88 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.5 | 5 | 0.82 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.4 | 0 | 0.69 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| COL D. Toews | 2.0 | 1 | 0.66 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.8 | 3 | 0.44 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| COL M. Wood | 1.8 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| COL R. Colton | 1.8 | 2 | 0.46 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| COL J. Drury | 1.7 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.7 | 1 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL C. Coyle | 1.6 | 2 | 0.55 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.6 | 1 | 0.46 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.6 | 1 | 0.71 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| COL J. Manson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| COL J. Drouin | 1.5 | 0 | 0.74 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| COL J. Vesey | 1.3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| COL S. Girard | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.1 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| COL J. Kiviranta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.0 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.0 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI J. Veleno | 1.0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| COL R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 0.9 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| COL E. Johnson | 0.9 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 0.9 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI E. Mastro | 0.8 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.6 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.