Game Recap: CHI 1, COL 3, February 28, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalSat, Feb 28, 2026Every game that night

COL3

COL beat CHI 3-1, and the chances backed it up: 4.41 expected goals to 1.99. COL outshot CHI 35 to 15. C. Makar led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). M. Blackwood stopped 14 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	0	0	1
COL	0	1	2	3

1st 6:31CHIC. BedardPP0.10 xG
2nd 19:51COLC. Makar0.14 xG
3rd 7:31COLG. Brindley0.47 xG
3rd 18:33COLC. MakarEN0.76 xG

Team Stats

CHICOL

15Shots on goal35

1.99Expected goals4.41

40Shot attempts70

125v5 shots on goal25

1/5Power play0/4

20Hits13

13Blocked shots11

8Penalty minutes8

16Giveaways18

4Takeaways5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.99 xGCOL 4.41 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI15 on goal, 1 scored

COL34 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	3	1	1	-2	2	20:33	5:51
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	1	1	2	-2	0	19:36	5:26
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	18:43	5:20
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	17:37	0:03
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:29	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	16:40	5:17
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	2	16:13	2:05
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	14:52	1:38
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	-1	2	11:21	1:34
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:48	1:57
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:27	0:36
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	2	7:56	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	23:09	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	-2	0	22:17	2:23
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	3	2	0	-1	0	20:44	0:05
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	-2	0	19:52	5:05
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	17:08	0:00
K. Korchinski	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:24	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	34	32	2	.941	58:11	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

COL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. MacKinnon	C	0	2	2	6	1	0	+2	0	23:32	6:26
M. Necas	C	0	2	2	2	1	1	+2	0	23:05	5:52
G. Brindley	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	3:26	0:00
G. Landeskog	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	+2	2	22:16	5:49
B. Nelson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	21:57	5:28
V. Nichushkin	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	17:54	1:11
A. Lehkonen	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	16:53	1:11
J. Drury	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	13:11	0:02
P. Kelly	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:26	0:17
R. Colton	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	10:00	0:05
V. Olofsson	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	9:26	0:55
Z. Bardakov	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	4:13	0:00
C. Makar	D	2	0	2	3	0	2	+2	0	23:49	5:49
D. Toews	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	4	21:15	1:29
S. Malinski	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	18:18	0:57
B. Burns	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:33	0:04
B. Kulak	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	16:57	0:00
J. Manson	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	16:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
M. Blackwood	15	14	1	.933	60:00	Win
S. Wedgewood	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1J. Dickinson13:21I. Mikheyev12:58T. Bertuzzi12:30

Line 2A. Burakovsky13:24C. Bedard12:53R. Greene10:07

Line 3T. Teravainen8:48F. Nazar8:52O. Moore9:43

Line 4N. Foligno8:03R. Donato9:51C. Dach7:56

Pair 1A. Vlasic18:26L. Crevier17:02

Pair 2M. Grzelcyk15:34A. Levshunov13:16

Pair 3C. Murphy12:27K. Korchinski8:24

COL

Line 1G. Landeskog15:37M. Necas16:06N. MacKinnon15:32

Line 2A. Lehkonen12:35V. Nichushkin12:34B. Nelson11:47

Line 3V. Olofsson8:31R. Colton9:55J. Drury9:36

Line 4Z. Bardakov4:13G. Brindley3:26P. Kelly8:00

Pair 1D. Toews17:26C. Makar13:57

Pair 2B. Burns12:33J. Manson13:15

Pair 3S. Malinski15:21B. Kulak13:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.5, COL 4.0	CHI 1, COL 3
Total goals	6.5	4
Shots on goal	CHI 23.1, COL 34.5	CHI 15, COL 35
Win chance	COL 73%	COL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
COL N. MacKinnon	4.7	6	1.75	2	46%	0
COL M. Necas	2.9	2	1.21	2	34%	0
COL C. Makar	2.9	3	1.17	2	30%	2
CHI C. Bedard	2.8	3	0.86	1	28%	1
COL B. Nelson	2.8	1	1.04	0	40%	0
COL G. Landeskog	2.4	4	0.86	0	30%	0
COL V. Nichushkin	2.4	2	0.82	0	33%	0
COL A. Lehkonen	2.2	2	0.72	0	29%	0
COL R. Colton	2.2	1	0.46	0	19%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.2	0	0.53	0	19%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.1	1	0.64	1	28%	0
COL B. Burns	2.0	0	0.44	0	12%	0
COL S. Malinski	2.0	2	0.39	1	8%	0
COL D. Toews	1.8	1	0.55	1	13%	0
COL V. Olofsson	1.7	2	0.45	0	21%	0
COL J. Manson	1.7	1	0.43	0	10%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	1	0.39	0	19%	0
COL P. Kelly	1.5	0	0.38	0	16%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.4	0	0.40	0	18%	0
COL J. Drury	1.4	2	0.39	0	14%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.3	1	0.42	0	15%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	0	0.53	1	19%	0
COL B. Kulak	1.2	2	0.26	0	6%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.2	3	0.19	0	5%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.2	1	0.30	0	12%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.1	0	0.32	0	4%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.1	0	0.28	0	14%	0
COL G. Brindley	1.1	2	0.26	1	11%	1
CHI O. Moore	1.1	2	0.30	0	10%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	1	0.22	0	3%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.9	0	0.18	0	4%	0
CHI N. Foligno	0.9	0	0.27	0	10%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.9	1	0.22	0	2%	0
CHI K. Korchinski	0.8	0	0.13	0	3%	0
CHI C. Dach	0.7	1	0.14	0	6%	0
COL Z. Bardakov	0.5	2	0.20	0	5%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.