Game Recap: CHI 3, DET 5, January 10, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI3

FinalFri, Jan 10, 2025Every game that night

DET5

DET beat CHI 5-3, and the chances backed it up: 4.85 expected goals to 0.85. DET outshot CHI 28 to 15. P. Kane led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). R. Donato had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. C. Talbot stopped 12 of 15.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	0	2	3
DET	1	1	3	5

1st 4:26DETA. DeBrincat0.11 xG
1st 10:56CHIR. Donato0.12 xG
2nd 0:41DETL. RaymondPP0.16 xG
3rd 5:00DETA. Copp0.08 xG
3rd 7:07DETA. Johansson0.15 xG
3rd 10:16CHIT. Teravainen0.14 xG
3rd 17:06CHIT. Teravainen0.05 xG
3rd 18:21DETM. KasperEN0.89 xG

Team Stats

CHIDET

15Shots on goal28

0.85Expected goals4.85

27Shot attempts56

135v5 shots on goal25

0/0Power play1/4

21Hits12

13Blocked shots7

8Penalty minutes0

23Giveaways12

3Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 0.85 xGDET 4.85 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI15 on goal, 3 scored

DET28 on goal, 5 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Teravainen	C	2	0	2	2	0	2	+1	0	14:59	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4	19:54	0:00
R. Donato	C	1	0	1	7	0	0	0	2	16:26	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	16:22	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	11:28	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	0	17:20	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	2	2	-1	0	16:19	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	3	2	-1	0	15:59	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	13:14	0:00
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:31	0:00
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:19	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	-1	2	11:14	0:00
N. Allan	D	0	1	1	1	3	3	+1	0	17:01	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	24:48	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	21:29	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:54	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	19:05	0:00
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:07	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	27	23	4	.852	58:34	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

DET Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	TOI	PP TOI
P. Kane	RW	0	3	3	1	0	1	+1	20:07	3:51
A. DeBrincat	RW	1	1	2	2	0	0	+1	18:13	3:58
L. Raymond	LW	1	1	2	3	0	0	+2	17:33	4:11
M. Kasper	C	1	1	2	3	1	0	+2	15:01	1:36
A. Copp	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:58	0:07
D. Larkin	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+2	19:10	4:20
J. Compher	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	15:32	2:56
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	15:04	2:53
J. Berggren	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	14:58	1:08
M. Rasmussen	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	13:25	2:30
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	12:48	0:06
T. Motte	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	11:23	0:04
S. Edvinsson	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	21:06	0:00
E. Gustafsson	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	16:23	2:36
A. Johansson	D	1	0	1	2	2	0	-1	14:42	0:00
J. Holl	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	13:30	0:00
M. Seider	D	0	0	0	1	2	2	-1	25:14	4:21
B. Chiarot	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	22:21	0:08

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
C. Talbot	15	12	3	.800	59:32	Win
V. Husso	0	0	0	–	0:00

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamPatrick Kane CHI Faces DET, his team until Apr 20263 A, 1 SOG
Old teamTyler Bertuzzi CHI Faces DET, his team until Feb 20230 SOG
HometownFrank Nazar CHI Plays in his hometown1 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.7, DET 3.5	CHI 3, DET 5
Total goals	6.2	8
Shots on goal	CHI 25.7, DET 29.6	CHI 15, DET 28
Win chance	DET 62%	DET won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
DET D. Larkin	3.1	2	1.04	0	37%	0
DET A. DeBrincat	2.7	2	0.84	2	31%	1
DET P. Kane	2.6	1	0.86	3	27%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	1	0.87	1	25%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.2	0	0.52	0	11%	0
DET L. Raymond	2.1	3	0.96	2	31%	1
CHI R. Donato	2.0	7	0.45	1	18%	1
DET V. Tarasenko	1.9	1	0.63	0	25%	0
CHI T. Hall	1.9	1	0.60	0	22%	0
DET M. Seider	1.9	1	0.64	0	9%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	0	0.62	0	26%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	0	0.43	1	20%	0
DET J. Berggren	1.6	0	0.45	0	21%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.6	0	0.47	0	19%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	2	0.60	2	20%	2
CHI A. Vlasic	1.4	0	0.33	0	5%	0
DET M. Kasper	1.4	3	0.24	2	11%	1
DET J. Compher	1.4	2	0.58	0	20%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.4	0	0.41	0	19%	0
DET B. Chiarot	1.3	2	0.29	0	7%	0
DET A. Copp	1.3	2	0.48	1	17%	1
DET T. Motte	1.2	0	0.21	0	11%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.2	0	0.21	0	3%	0
DET M. Rasmussen	1.1	1	0.38	0	15%	0
DET J. Veleno	1.1	1	0.34	0	15%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.1	0	0.37	0	13%	0
DET S. Edvinsson	1.1	1	0.36	1	9%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.1	1	0.30	0	14%	0
DET E. Gustafsson	1.1	2	0.36	1	6%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.9	1	0.16	0	5%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.9	0	0.25	0	9%	0
DET A. Johansson	0.8	2	0.12	1	3%	1
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	0	0.25	0	3%	0
DET J. Holl	0.5	2	0.20	1	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.4	1	0.20	1	4%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.