Game Recap: CHI 2, FLA 3, October 7, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI2

FinalTue, Oct 7, 2025Every game that night

FLA3

FLA beat CHI 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 3.98 expected goals to 2.00. FLA outshot CHI 37 to 19. T. Teravainen led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). S. Bobrovsky stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	1	0	2
FLA	2	0	1	3

1st 10:03CHIF. Nazar0.22 xG
1st 11:06FLAA. Greer0.32 xG
1st 14:08FLAC. VerhaeghePP0.34 xG
2nd 1:09CHIT. Teravainen0.09 xG
3rd 9:40FLAJ. Boqvist0.13 xG

Team Stats

CHIFLA

19Shots on goal37

2.00Expected goals3.98

50Shot attempts69

175v5 shots on goal31

0/3Power play1/2

27Hits28

16Blocked shots15

9Penalty minutes11

19Giveaways17

4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.00 xGFLA 3.98 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI19 on goal, 2 scored

FLA37 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Nazar	C	1	1	2	1	1	1	+1	0	20:14	4:02
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	2	2	1	2	0	+1	0	19:10	4:02
T. Teravainen	C	1	1	2	1	0	2	+1	0	18:05	3:58
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	22:00	4:07
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:07	0:04
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	16:00	1:56
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:40	1:53
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	14:14	0:06
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	13:29	1:53
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	5	11:48	1:54
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	8:17	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:07	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	1	1	4	0	0	25:18	4:18
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	-1	0	18:33	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	18:27	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	1	6	2	-1	0	17:35	0:01
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	2	2	0	+1	4	16:36	1:42
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	4	1	+1	0	16:34	0:04

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	37	34	3	.919	59:04	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

FLA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Samoskevich	RW	0	2	2	0	3	0	+1	0	11:18	1:08
C. Verhaeghe	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	-1	0	18:47	1:22
E. Rodrigues	C	0	1	1	1	2	2	+1	0	14:30	1:22
J. Boqvist	C	1	0	1	1	4	0	+1	0	10:38	0:00
A. Greer	LW	1	0	1	1	5	1	+1	5	7:19	0:00
J. Gadjovich	LW	0	1	1	1	4	1	+1	0	7:18	0:00
B. Marchand	LW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	2	20:10	2:24
A. Lundell	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0	19:42	1:04
E. Luostarinen	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	19:39	0:00
S. Bennett	C	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	0	19:15	2:18
S. Reinhart	C	0	0	0	3	1	2	-1	0	18:14	2:21
L. Kunin	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	+1	2	8:09	0:14
G. Forsling	D	0	1	1	3	3	0	+2	0	22:52	0:14
A. Ekblad	D	0	0	0	4	1	2	+2	0	24:41	2:20
S. Jones	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	2	22:29	2:17
N. Mikkola	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	21:14	0:03
J. Petry	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:59	1:23
D. Kulikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:46	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Bobrovsky	19	17	2	.895	60:00	Win
D. Tarasov	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky13:47C. Bedard16:52R. Donato13:59

Line 2T. Bertuzzi14:12F. Nazar14:08T. Teravainen12:08

Line 3J. Dickinson11:48C. Dach11:36I. Mikheyev14:42

Line 4S. Lafferty8:07R. Greene8:07N. Foligno8:47

Pair 1M. Grzelcyk18:13S. Rinzel18:23

Pair 2C. Murphy16:29E. Mastro15:37

Pair 3W. Kaiser15:01A. Levshunov14:54

FLA

Line 1B. Marchand16:28C. Verhaeghe17:25S. Bennett16:52

Line 2E. Luostarinen16:13A. Lundell15:10S. Reinhart13:35

Line 3E. Rodrigues11:50M. Samoskevich10:10J. Boqvist10:12

Line 4A. Greer6:40J. Gadjovich7:18L. Kunin6:05

Pair 1S. Jones18:25N. Mikkola18:33

Pair 2A. Ekblad18:07G. Forsling18:26

Pair 3J. Petry12:32D. Kulikov12:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamSeth Jones FLA Faces CHI, his team until Feb 20251 SOG
Old teamSpencer Knight CHI Faces FLA, his team until Mar 202534 saves on 37

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.4, FLA 3.7	CHI 2, FLA 3
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	CHI 22.6, FLA 32.5	CHI 19, FLA 37
Win chance	FLA 71%	FLA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
FLA S. Bennett	3.5	4	0.83	0	33%	0
FLA S. Reinhart	3.3	3	1.18	0	44%	0
FLA C. Verhaeghe	3.2	5	0.94	1	34%	1
FLA B. Marchand	2.5	4	0.82	0	29%	0
FLA E. Rodrigues	2.3	1	0.58	1	20%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.2	2	0.66	0	22%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	2.2	1	0.40	0	5%	0
FLA A. Lundell	2.1	1	0.62	0	19%	0
FLA G. Forsling	2.1	3	0.47	1	13%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.1	1	0.54	0	22%	0
FLA A. Ekblad	2.1	4	0.68	0	14%	0
FLA M. Samoskevich	2.0	0	0.48	2	19%	0
FLA S. Jones	2.0	1	0.61	0	14%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	1	0.40	0	20%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.8	1	0.48	2	19%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.5	1	0.46	2	20%	0
FLA E. Luostarinen	1.5	2	0.49	0	16%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.4	0	0.41	0	14%	0
FLA L. Kunin	1.4	3	0.24	0	14%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	1	0.57	2	19%	1
FLA N. Mikkola	1.3	1	0.28	0	7%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.2	2	0.37	0	3%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	2	0.19	0	4%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	2	0.25	0	3%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.2	2	0.18	0	4%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.1	0	0.31	0	13%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.1	1	0.27	0	11%	0
FLA J. Petry	1.0	1	0.32	0	5%	0
FLA J. Boqvist	1.0	1	0.30	1	13%	1
FLA A. Greer	0.9	1	0.20	1	9%	1
FLA D. Kulikov	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.9	1	0.23	0	5%	0
FLA J. Gadjovich	0.9	1	0.14	1	8%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	0.8	1	0.21	0	11%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.8	0	0.16	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.