Game Recap: CHI 4, LAK 3 (SO), November 2, 2024

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Game Recap

CHI4

Final/SOSat, Nov 2, 2024Every game that night

LAK3

CHI beat LAK 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 1.70 expected goals to 3.56. LAK outshot CHI 40 to 21. A. Laferriere led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). B. Clarke had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.0. P. Mrazek stopped 37 of 40.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CHI	0	0	3	1	4
LAK	1	1	1	0	3

1st 3:57LAKA. LaferrierePP0.15 xG
2nd 18:37LAKA. Laferriere0.04 xG
3rd 3:26CHIN. Foligno0.07 xG
3rd 5:34CHIC. Smith0.07 xG
3rd 11:48LAKP. Danault0.17 xG
3rd 19:29CHIT. Bertuzzi0.19 xG

Team Stats

CHILAK

21Shots on goal40

1.70Expected goals3.56

43Shot attempts72

165v5 shots on goal26

0/2Power play1/3

25Hits24

17Blocked shots13

11Penalty minutes9

12Giveaways13

3Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.70 xGLAK 3.56 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI21 on goal, 3 scored

LAK39 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	5	4	0	0	0	19:13	2:01
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	16:18	1:59
L. Reichel	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	+2	0	15:45	1:36
N. Foligno	LW	1	0	1	1	3	0	+1	5	15:15	0:00
C. Smith	C	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	2	12:12	1:35
C. Bedard	C	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	21:54	2:03
P. Kurashev	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	18:13	2:01
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:40	1:58
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	16:53	0:23
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:52	0:05
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	5	1	+1	2	13:06	1:49
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	12:18	0:07
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	0	28:13	2:13
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	0	2	4	0	0	27:07	1:25
N. Allan	D	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	13:09	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	+1	2	23:09	0:23
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:39	0:22
I. Phillips	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:13	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
P. Mrazek	40	37	3	.925	63:28	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
K. Fiala	LW	0	2	2	4	0	0	+1	0	20:49	3:53
P. Danault	C	1	1	2	5	0	1	+2	0	20:33	1:24
A. Laferriere	RW	2	0	2	3	3	1	0	0	18:23	3:55
A. Kopitar	C	0	1	1	0	0	0	-2	0	20:37	2:59
T. Moore	LW	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:32	0:28
A. Turcotte	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:14	0:14
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	6	1	0	-2	0	20:27	3:29
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	15:45	0:41
W. Foegele	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	14:16	0:00
T. Lewis	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	-1	0	12:40	0:00
A. Thomas	C	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:36	0:00
T. Jeannot	LW	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	5	10:23	0:00
V. Gavrikov	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	24:29	0:02
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	-2	0	24:10	0:28
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	2	2	3	+1	2	23:23	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	6	1	3	-1	2	21:53	3:32
J. Spence	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	16:50	0:50
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	21	18	3	.857	63:30	OT loss
D. Rittich	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.5, LAK 3.5	CHI 4, LAK 3
Total goals	6.0	7
Shots on goal	CHI 24.8, LAK 32.7	CHI 21, LAK 40
Win chance	LAK 67%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK A. Kempe	3.1	6	0.98	0	37%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.8	1	0.64	1	26%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.8	3	0.78	0	24%	0
LAK K. Fiala	2.6	4	0.90	2	30%	0
LAK W. Foegele	2.6	1	0.54	0	23%	0
CHI S. Jones	2.3	0	0.49	1	9%	0
LAK A. Laferriere	2.1	3	0.47	2	22%	2
LAK Q. Byfield	2.1	3	0.70	0	19%	0
CHI T. Hall	2.0	1	0.53	0	20%	0
LAK P. Danault	2.0	5	0.63	2	23%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	2.0	1	0.67	0	24%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.0	6	0.64	0	7%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	2	0.53	1	22%	1
CHI N. Foligno	1.8	1	0.44	1	17%	1
LAK A. Thomas	1.8	1	0.49	0	20%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	0	0.91	1	27%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	0	0.36	0	17%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.6	5	0.37	1	16%	0
CHI C. Smith	1.6	2	0.32	1	15%	1
LAK V. Gavrikov	1.4	1	0.36	0	6%	0
LAK T. Lewis	1.4	1	0.22	0	10%	0
LAK J. Spence	1.4	3	0.41	0	5%	0
CHI P. Kurashev	1.3	1	0.45	0	15%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	1.3	1	0.31	1	12%	0
LAK M. Anderson	1.3	2	0.32	0	5%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	1	0.35	0	15%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.2	1	0.26	0	6%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	2	0.28	1	10%	0
LAK T. Jeannot	1.1	1	0.26	0	13%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.0	2	0.20	0	5%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	0.9	0	0.24	1	3%	0
CHI P. Maroon	0.9	0	0.24	0	9%	0
CHI I. Phillips	0.8	0	0.19	0	3%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.7	0	0.21	0	2%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.6	0	0.20	1	3%	0
LAK A. Englund	0.5	0	0.14	0	2%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.