Game Recap: CHI 2, LAK 1, December 4, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI2

FinalThu, Dec 4, 2025Every game that night

LAK1

CHI beat LAK 2-1, with the chances close: 2.58 expected goals to 2.24. CHI outshot LAK 36 to 27. F. Nazar led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). C. Perry had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.7. S. Knight stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	2	0	2
LAK	0	0	1	1

2nd 6:17CHIC. BedardPP0.19 xG
2nd 19:54CHIW. Kaiser0.20 xG
3rd 10:38LAKT. Moore0.12 xG

Team Stats

CHILAK

36Shots on goal27

2.58Expected goals2.24

67Shot attempts74

305v5 shots on goal20

1/3Power play0/5

13Hits20

25Blocked shots20

10Penalty minutes6

13Giveaways19

6Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.58 xGLAK 2.24 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI35 on goal, 2 scored

LAK27 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Nazar	C	0	2	2	2	2	2	+1	0	18:48	2:19
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	-1	4	17:59	2:19
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	16:02	2:16
O. Moore	C	0	1	1	1	0	1	+1	2	12:54	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	20:57	0:20
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	18:30	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:52	0:00
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	16:33	0:20
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	15:09	1:51
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	9:03	0:20
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	4	3	0	0	8:23	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	1	0	1	2	1	2	+1	0	20:21	0:03
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	19:25	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	18:23	0:48
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:10	1:51
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	2	15:43	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	+1	0	15:18	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	13:13	0:48

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	27	26	1	.963	59:51	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

LAK Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Moore	LW	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	13:15	0:00
W. Foegele	LW	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	0	11:59	0:00
Q. Byfield	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	21:32	3:54
J. Armia	RW	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	19:35	4:07
A. Kopitar	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	18:50	5:15
K. Fiala	LW	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	18:33	5:15
P. Danault	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	17:35	1:15
A. Kempe	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	2	17:21	5:15
C. Perry	RW	0	0	0	5	1	0	-1	0	14:51	3:05
A. Laferriere	RW	0	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	13:15	2:15
A. Kuzmenko	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:45	3:49
A. Turcotte	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:18	0:00
B. Clarke	D	0	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	20:12	3:06
D. Doughty	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	19:12	3:24
J. Edmundson	D	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	18:06	0:12
C. Ceci	D	0	0	0	0	0	4	-1	0	18:05	0:00
B. Dumoulin	D	0	0	0	0	0	3	-1	0	17:49	0:00
M. Anderson	D	0	0	0	2	2	2	+1	2	17:24	0:14

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
D. Kuemper	36	34	2	.944	57:14	Loss
A. Forsberg	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1T. Teravainen15:35I. Mikheyev14:44J. Dickinson13:48

Line 2A. Burakovsky13:15C. Bedard15:26R. Greene12:25

Line 3F. Nazar13:27T. Bertuzzi12:27O. Moore10:45

Line 4R. Donato8:43C. Dach8:23

Pair 1W. Kaiser16:28L. Crevier13:14

Pair 2A. Vlasic14:07A. Levshunov13:06

Pair 3M. Grzelcyk15:47S. Rinzel10:44

LAK

Line 1Q. Byfield15:17K. Fiala13:13J. Armia14:08

Line 2A. Kopitar11:34A. Kempe11:52A. Laferriere9:38

Line 3C. Perry10:34P. Danault14:37A. Turcotte9:13

Line 4T. Moore11:44W. Foegele10:53

Pair 1B. Dumoulin15:19C. Ceci14:44

Pair 2D. Doughty14:25M. Anderson16:06

Pair 3B. Clarke16:12J. Edmundson15:55

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.5, LAK 3.3	CHI 2, LAK 1
Total goals	5.8	3
Shots on goal	CHI 23.3, LAK 31.0	CHI 36, LAK 27
Win chance	LAK 64%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
LAK K. Fiala	3.4	4	0.96	0	36%	0
LAK A. Kempe	3.3	1	1.03	0	37%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.8	4	0.89	1	27%	1
LAK A. Laferriere	2.7	1	0.59	0	23%	0
LAK Q. Byfield	2.5	2	0.83	0	25%	0
LAK B. Clarke	2.3	1	0.60	0	13%	0
LAK T. Moore	2.2	3	0.58	1	23%	1
LAK W. Foegele	2.1	0	0.46	1	21%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.0	2	0.62	2	21%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.9	4	0.63	1	26%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.8	1	0.47	0	20%	0
LAK C. Perry	1.7	5	0.49	0	23%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	4	0.39	0	19%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.6	1	0.59	0	19%	0
LAK A. Kopitar	1.6	2	0.87	0	26%	0
LAK A. Kuzmenko	1.5	0	0.62	0	25%	0
LAK P. Danault	1.5	3	0.50	0	16%	0
LAK J. Armia	1.4	0	0.42	0	18%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.4	3	0.36	0	16%	0
LAK D. Doughty	1.3	1	0.52	0	12%	0
LAK J. Edmundson	1.3	2	0.31	0	7%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.2	1	0.57	0	19%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	2	0.38	0	4%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.1	2	0.28	0	13%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.0	3	0.23	0	3%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.0	2	0.21	0	9%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.0	1	0.33	1	11%	0
LAK B. Dumoulin	1.0	0	0.31	0	5%	0
LAK C. Ceci	1.0	0	0.26	0	5%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.19	0	3%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	0.9	2	0.15	1	3%	1
LAK M. Anderson	0.9	2	0.29	0	6%	0
LAK A. Turcotte	0.9	0	0.23	0	8%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.8	0	0.20	0	1%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	3	0.18	0	4%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.8	1	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 18 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.2 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.