MIN beat CHI 4-3, with the chances close: 2.87 expected goals to 2.59. T. Hall led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). A. Vlasic had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.3. F. Gustavsson stopped 28 of 31.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.59 xGMIN 2.87 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:00 |
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 22:03 | 0:00 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:00 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:30 | 0:00 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:06 | 0:00 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:13 | 0:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:03 | 0:00 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 15:48 | 0:00 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 8:37 | 0:00 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 5:12 | 0:00 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 24:52 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 | 21:46 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 20:55 | 0:00 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 17:23 | 0:00 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17:22 | 0:00 |
| K. Korchinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:44 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 26 | 23 | 3 | .885 | 58:14 | Loss |
| P. Mrazek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MIN Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Y. Trenin | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 8:49 | 0:00 |
| K. Kaprizov | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:09 | 1:29 |
| M. Rossi | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 1:26 |
| M. Zuccarello | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:24 | 1:25 |
| M. Foligno | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 15:02 | 0:00 |
| M. Khusnutdinov | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:41 | 0:00 |
| D. Shore | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7:32 | 0:00 |
| M. Boldy | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:27 | 1:30 |
| F. Gaudreau | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:56 | 0:30 |
| M. Johansson | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:34 |
| R. Hartman | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:31 |
| B. Jones | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 7:57 | 0:00 |
| J. Brodin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 24:18 | 0:00 |
| B. Faber | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:13 | 0:22 |
| J. Spurgeon | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 22:11 | 1:38 |
| D. Chisholm | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:33 | 0:35 |
| Z. Bogosian | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:50 | 0:00 |
| J. Merrill | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Gustavsson | 31 | 28 | 3 | .903 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Fleury | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Storylines That Played Out
As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.5, MIN 3.4 | CHI 3, MIN 4 |
| Total goals | 5.9 | 7 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 25.1, MIN 31.2 | CHI 31, MIN 27 |
| Win chance | MIN 65% | MIN won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN K. Kaprizov | 3.8 | 5 | 1.49 | 1 | 51% | 1 |
| MIN M. Boldy | 3.2 | 2 | 0.98 | 0 | 34% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.4 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| MIN M. Zuccarello | 2.3 | 3 | 0.94 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.2 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN M. Rossi | 2.2 | 2 | 0.73 | 1 | 29% | 0 |
| MIN R. Hartman | 2.2 | 3 | 0.55 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.1 | 1 | 0.47 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 1.8 | 3 | 0.53 | 2 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.8 | 1 | 0.57 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| MIN M. Johansson | 1.7 | 0 | 0.49 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| MIN J. Spurgeon | 1.7 | 2 | 0.47 | 1 | 10% | 1 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.6 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.6 | 3 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MIN J. Brodin | 1.6 | 2 | 0.37 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN F. Gaudreau | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.5 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| MIN B. Faber | 1.4 | 2 | 0.57 | 1 | 8% | 1 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.3 | 5 | 0.32 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| MIN M. Foligno | 1.3 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| MIN Y. Trenin | 1.3 | 1 | 0.26 | 2 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.35 | 1 | 16% | 1 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| MIN D. Chisholm | 1.1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MIN Z. Bogosian | 1.0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MIN B. Jones | 1.0 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI K. Korchinski | 0.9 | 2 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 0.9 | 2 | 0.25 | 1 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.8 | 3 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI J. Anderson | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MIN D. Shore | 0.7 | 2 | 0.19 | 1 | 7% | 0 |
| MIN J. Merrill | 0.7 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.5 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| MIN M. Khusnutdinov | 0.5 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.5 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.