Game Recap: CHI 3, MIN 4 (SO), January 27, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI3

Final/SOTue, Jan 27, 2026Every game that night

MIN4

MIN beat CHI 4-3 in a shootout despite fewer good chances: 2.87 expected goals to 4.65. CHI outshot MIN 32 to 23. J. Eriksson Ek led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Bedard had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 2.7. J. Wallstedt stopped 29 of 32.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CHI	2	1	0	0	3
MIN	0	1	2	1	4

1st 1:19CHIT. Teravainen0.81 xG
1st 15:14CHIR. Donato0.16 xG
2nd 5:54CHII. Mikheyev0.07 xG
2nd 12:33MINY. Trenin0.10 xG
3rd 3:57MINJ. Eriksson Ek0.19 xG
3rd 17:58MINJ. Spurgeon0.42 xG

Team Stats

CHIMIN

32Shots on goal23

4.65Expected goals2.87

61Shot attempts44

215v5 shots on goal14

0/5Power play0/1

10Hits21

5Blocked shots15

2Penalty minutes10

13Giveaways13

6Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 4.65 xGMIN 2.87 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI32 on goal, 3 scored

MIN20 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	8	2	0	-1	0	23:50	6:59
T. Teravainen	C	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	21:19	6:50
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	20:13	0:05
J. Dickinson	C	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	16:34	0:08
R. Donato	C	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	11:59	2:59
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	21:50	6:37
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	21:30	5:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	14:54	4:52
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	13:11	2:48
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	+1	0	12:50	3:12
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	10:38	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	10:30	0:05
A. Vlasic	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	+2	0	22:04	0:05
L. Crevier	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	18:28	0:09
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	2	3	1	-1	0	20:37	4:58
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:45	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:20	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	17:24	2:57

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	23	20	3	.870	65:00	OT loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Eriksson Ek	C	1	1	2	2	1	1	+2	0	18:40	1:00
M. Boldy	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	+2	4	20:48	1:03
M. Johansson	LW	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	15:53	0:57
Y. Trenin	C	1	0	1	1	6	1	+1	0	10:42	0:00
K. Kaprizov	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	-1	0	21:58	1:03
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	3	1	3	-1	0	17:28	0:57
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	1	0	1	-2	0	16:29	0:59
M. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	14:35	0:00
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	-2	2	13:47	0:00
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	13:07	1:00
N. Sturm	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	0	10:10	0:00
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	0	0	2	+1	0	6:40	0:00
Q. Hughes	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-2	0	27:49	1:03
J. Spurgeon	D	1	0	1	2	0	1	+1	2	22:41	0:57
D. Hunt	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	+1	0	11:44	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	30:01	1:01
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	2	0	3	+1	2	24:00	0:00
D.Jiricek	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	10:33	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	32	29	3	.906	64:55	Win
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1J. Dickinson15:35I. Mikheyev16:43T. Bertuzzi15:08

Line 2F. Nazar14:18C. Bedard15:23T. Teravainen14:02

Line 3R. Greene10:10O. Moore10:02A. Burakovsky8:56

Line 4N. Foligno9:38R. Donato9:00L. Slaggert10:25

Pair 1A. Vlasic19:05L. Crevier17:12

Pair 2C. Murphy17:22M. Grzelcyk14:27

Pair 3W. Kaiser16:30A. Levshunov15:39

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello15:02K. Kaprizov18:57R. Hartman16:26

Line 2J. Ek13:24M. Boldy15:20M. Johansson12:50

Line 3V. Tarasenko11:38D. Yurov12:34M. Foligno11:16

Line 4V. Hinostroza6:40Y. Trenin7:32N. Sturm7:19

Pair 1Q. Hughes24:53B. Faber21:30

Pair 2J. Spurgeon18:01J. Middleton18:34

Pair 3D.Jiricek9:09D. Hunt8:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNick Foligno MIN Faces CHI, his team until Mar 20261 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.7, MIN 3.5	CHI 3, MIN 4
Total goals	6.3	7
Shots on goal	CHI 25.5, MIN 30.6	CHI 32, MIN 23
Win chance	MIN 63%	MIN won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN K. Kaprizov	4.0	1	1.45	0	48%	0
MIN M. Boldy	3.3	1	1.08	1	36%	0
MIN Q. Hughes	3.0	1	1.26	1	18%	0
MIN J. Ek	2.9	2	0.71	2	26%	1
CHI C. Bedard	2.7	8	0.85	1	26%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.6	3	0.69	0	28%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.5	1	1.03	0	27%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.1	2	0.64	0	27%	0
MIN B. Faber	2.1	0	0.50	0	14%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	2.0	3	0.61	0	24%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.9	4	0.51	0	18%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	2	0.44	1	21%	1
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.7	1	0.62	0	20%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.6	2	0.23	1	7%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.5	2	0.53	1	17%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.5	2	0.41	0	5%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.5	1	0.41	1	18%	1
CHI R. Greene	1.4	1	0.37	0	15%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.3	2	0.36	1	10%	1
MIN D. Yurov	1.3	0	0.46	0	16%	0
MIN M. Foligno	1.3	2	0.35	0	17%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.3	0	0.21	0	6%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	0	0.29	1	14%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	3	0.37	0	11%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	1	0.23	1	3%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	1	0.19	0	4%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.1	1	0.25	1	12%	1
CHI T. Teravainen	1.1	2	0.47	1	16%	1
MIN J. Middleton	1.1	2	0.27	0	7%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.0	0	0.25	0	2%	0
MIN V. Hinostroza	1.0	0	0.22	0	9%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.0	1	0.20	0	8%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.9	0	0.23	0	10%	0
CHI N. Foligno	0.9	1	0.30	0	11%	0
MIN D. Hunt	0.6	1	0.14	1	2%	0
MIN D.Jiricek	0.6	1	0.13	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.