Game Recap: CHI 2, MIN 1, March 19, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI2

FinalThu, Mar 19, 2026Every game that night

MIN1

CHI beat MIN 2-1, with the chances close: 2.56 expected goals to 2.50. C. Bedard had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 3.0. S. Knight stopped 28 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	1	0	2
MIN	0	1	0	1

1st 16:22CHII. Mikheyev0.13 xG
2nd 11:47CHIC. Bedard0.23 xG
2nd 15:47MINN. Sturm0.05 xG

Team Stats

CHIMIN

26Shots on goal29

2.56Expected goals2.50

54Shot attempts53

165v5 shots on goal22

0/3Power play0/3

10Hits23

10Blocked shots13

18Penalty minutes18

11Giveaways15

4Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.56 xGMIN 2.50 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI24 on goal, 2 scored

MIN29 on goal, 1 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	6	1	1	+1	0	23:54	4:18
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	2	15:10	0:03
A. Mangiapane	LW	0	1	1	0	2	1	+1	0	12:24	0:03
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	20:03	2:10
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	19:56	4:21
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	2	19:51	1:41
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	19:34	4:21
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	19:07	3:34
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	+1	2	13:32	1:39
N. Lardis	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	8:37	1:22
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	7:14	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	+1	0	21:46	0:03
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	3	1	+1	0	20:21	4:19
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	+1	4	18:07	0:25
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	2	18:01	0:03
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	2	16:57	1:38
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	12:53	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	6:48	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	29	28	1	.966	59:45	Win
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

MIN Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Sturm	C	1	0	1	1	0	1	+1	0	11:12	0:00
H. Haight	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	+1	0	10:51	0:00
M. Boldy	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	23:25	4:13
M. Zuccarello	RW	0	0	0	4	0	0	-1	0	19:57	3:52
R. Hartman	RW	0	0	0	4	1	0	-1	6	19:17	3:54
V. Tarasenko	RW	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	17:48	3:36
M. Johansson	LW	0	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	16:24	0:12
B. Brink	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:17	0:49
D. Yurov	RW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:49	0:33
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	4	12:43	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	0	4	0	-1	0	12:10	0:00
Y. Trenin	C	0	0	0	1	5	0	+1	4	10:05	0:00
B. Faber	D	0	1	1	1	0	4	-1	0	23:01	0:12
Q. Hughes	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-1	0	28:06	4:13
J. Spurgeon	D	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:16	0:31
J. Brodin	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	18:37	0:00
J. Middleton	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	13:37	0:00
Z. Bogosian	D	0	0	0	1	4	0	+1	2	9:28	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Wallstedt	26	24	2	.923	57:57	Loss
F. Gustavsson	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard17:49A. Burakovsky17:43R. Greene15:29

Line 2T. Teravainen13:07T. Bertuzzi15:04F. Nazar13:58

Line 3R. Donato11:38A. Mangiapane12:06I. Mikheyev10:49

Line 4N. Lardis7:15L. Slaggert6:28

Pair 1A. Vlasic17:04A. Levshunov14:50

Pair 2S. Rinzel15:19W. Kaiser15:53

Pair 3M. Grzelcyk12:23L. Crevier12:42

MIN

Line 1M. Zuccarello14:02V. Tarasenko12:09R. Hartman13:20

Line 2B. Brink13:28M. Boldy15:42D. Yurov12:00

Line 3M. Johansson14:38M. McCarron9:30N. Foligno9:11

Line 4Y. Trenin8:51N. Sturm8:26H. Haight10:36

Pair 1Q. Hughes21:47J. Spurgeon18:40

Pair 2J. Brodin15:42B. Faber18:38

Pair 3Z. Bogosian9:28J. Middleton10:17

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

Storylines That Played Out

Old teamNick Foligno MIN Faces CHI, his team until Mar 20260 SOG

As Tonight had them before puck drop, with what each player did.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.5, MIN 3.5	CHI 2, MIN 1
Total goals	6.0	3
Shots on goal	CHI 24.6, MIN 31.0	CHI 26, MIN 29
Win chance	MIN 66%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MIN M. Boldy	3.4	3	1.08	0	37%	0
CHI C. Bedard	3.0	6	0.91	1	28%	1
MIN Q. Hughes	2.6	3	1.20	0	17%	0
MIN R. Hartman	2.4	4	0.58	0	24%	0
MIN M. Zuccarello	2.3	4	0.91	0	25%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.2	2	0.63	0	21%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	4	0.65	0	27%	0
MIN V. Tarasenko	2.0	3	0.59	0	24%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.9	3	0.35	0	6%	0
MIN B. Faber	1.9	1	0.53	1	13%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.7	2	0.41	1	19%	1
CHI R. Greene	1.6	1	0.37	0	15%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.6	0	0.22	0	6%	0
MIN B. Brink	1.5	0	0.52	0	19%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.5	0	0.44	0	19%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.4	0	0.38	0	5%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	1	0.58	0	20%	0
MIN M. Johansson	1.3	3	0.51	0	16%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.3	1	0.44	0	16%	0
MIN M. McCarron	1.3	0	0.24	0	11%	0
MIN D. Yurov	1.2	0	0.42	0	16%	0
MIN J. Spurgeon	1.2	1	0.34	0	10%	0
MIN Y. Trenin	1.2	1	0.27	0	13%	0
MIN J. Brodin	1.1	1	0.32	0	7%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	2	0.25	0	3%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	2	0.20	0	6%	0
CHI N. Lardis	1.1	1	0.25	0	12%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.1	1	0.23	0	2%	0
CHI A. Mangiapane	1.0	0	0.27	1	14%	0
MIN H. Haight	1.0	2	0.18	1	10%	0
MIN N. Foligno	1.0	0	0.32	0	12%	0
MIN J. Middleton	0.9	1	0.24	0	6%	0
MIN Z. Bogosian	0.8	1	0.20	0	5%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.8	0	0.15	0	7%	0
MIN N. Sturm	0.8	1	0.20	1	9%	1
CHI E. Mastro	0.7	0	0.15	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.