Game Recap: CHI 4, MTL 3 (SO), April 14, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI4

Final/SOMon, Apr 14, 2025Every game that night

MTL3

CHI beat MTL 4-3 in a shootout, with the chances close: 4.02 expected goals to 3.80. I. Demidov led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Soderblom stopped 18 of 21.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CHI	1	1	1	1	4
MTL	2	0	1	0	3

1st 6:00MTLA. Newhook0.23 xG
1st 13:32MTLI. Demidov0.14 xG
1st 18:40CHIT. BertuzziPP0.25 xG
2nd 16:41CHIF. NazarPP0.16 xG
3rd 5:39CHIL. Reichel0.25 xG
3rd 17:03MTLJ. SlafkovskýPP0.12 xG

Team Stats

CHIMTL

25Shots on goal21

4.02Expected goals3.80

65Shot attempts62

165v5 shots on goal12

2/3Power play1/4

25Hits12

16Blocked shots18

10Penalty minutes8

12Giveaways17

3Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 4.02 xGMTL 3.80 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI24 on goal, 3 scored

MTL21 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
F. Nazar	C	1	1	2	2	1	2	0	0	19:49	2:50
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	+1	0	24:00	2:50
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	0	18:51	2:50
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	2	14:28	2:50
L. Reichel	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	-1	0	9:28	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	1	1	1	5	1	-2	0	9:25	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	9:16	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	19:13	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:33	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	15:44	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	14:01	0:00
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:55	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	1	1	4	1	0	-1	0	26:52	2:44
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	0	5	-1	0	24:07	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	4	3	+1	2	20:27	0:06
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	2	1	+1	0	19:05	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	-1	2	18:28	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	-1	0	13:27	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	21	18	3	.857	65:00	Win
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

MTL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Demidov	RW	1	1	2	3	1	0	+1	0	16:56	2:59
J. Armia	RW	0	2	2	2	0	0	+1	0	6:52	0:00
C. Caufield	RW	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	22:33	2:58
J. Slafkovský	LW	1	0	1	3	2	2	0	0	20:51	3:25
A. Newhook	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	+1	0	15:38	2:20
N. Suzuki	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	26:41	5:59
C. Dvorak	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:35	0:23
B. Gallagher	RW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:00	2:15
J. Anderson	RW	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	16:00	0:10
P. Laine	LW	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	15:17	3:56
J. Evans	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:14	0:00
O. Kapanen	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:17	0:00
M. Matheson	D	0	1	1	0	1	4	0	2	27:34	2:05
L. Hutson	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	-1	0	27:24	4:09
A. Carrier	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	2	20:40	0:11
K. Guhle	D	0	0	0	0	1	5	-1	4	19:15	0:00
J. Struble	D	0	0	0	0	2	0	+2	0	13:02	0:00
D. Savard	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	+2	0	10:54	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Montembeault	25	22	3	.880	64:46	OT loss
J. Dobes	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.8, MTL 3.5	CHI 4, MTL 3
Total goals	6.4	7
Shots on goal	CHI 25.2, MTL 28.9	CHI 25, MTL 21
Win chance	MTL 61%	CHI won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
MTL C. Caufield	3.2	1	0.88	1	35%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.5	3	0.74	0	28%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	0	0.79	1	25%	0
MTL N. Suzuki	2.4	2	1.15	0	33%	0
MTL P. Laine	2.2	4	0.69	0	28%	0
MTL B. Gallagher	2.1	0	0.53	0	22%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	2.0	3	0.50	0	24%	0
MTL M. Matheson	2.0	0	0.61	1	13%	0
MTL J. Slafkovský	2.0	3	0.72	1	23%	1
CHI S. Rinzel	2.0	4	0.38	1	6%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.9	2	0.48	2	20%	1
MTL J. Anderson	1.7	1	0.42	0	21%	0
MTL A. Newhook	1.7	2	0.49	1	20%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.6	3	0.54	1	23%	1
MTL C. Dvorak	1.6	1	0.56	0	19%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	2	0.68	1	22%	0
MTL J. Armia	1.4	2	0.37	2	17%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.4	1	0.41	0	16%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.3	0	0.40	0	14%	0
MTL K. Guhle	1.3	0	0.38	0	9%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.3	0	0.33	0	4%	0
MTL J. Evans	1.3	0	0.51	0	15%	0
MTL L. Hutson	1.2	1	0.90	1	8%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	0	0.22	0	5%	0
MTL A. Carrier	1.2	1	0.38	0	6%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	1	0.20	0	5%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	1	0.30	0	5%	0
CHI J. Veleno	1.1	1	0.25	1	12%	0
MTL O. Kapanen	1.0	0	0.21	0	10%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.0	2	0.21	1	10%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.0	2	0.26	1	10%	1
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	0	0.14	0	5%	0
MTL J. Struble	0.8	0	0.22	0	4%	0
MTL D. Savard	0.6	0	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 19 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.