MTL beat CHI 4-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.59 expected goals to 2.01. MTL outshot CHI 35 to 15. L. Hutson led the way with 3 points (0 G, 3 A). I. Demidov had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.4. J. Dobes stopped 14 of 15.
Team Stats
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.01 xGMTL 3.59 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:42 | 2:12 |
| F. Nazar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:25 | 1:48 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:00 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:24 | 1:50 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:47 | 2:14 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 16:12 | 0:00 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:07 | 1:44 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:34 | 2:11 |
| N. Lardis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:32 | 1:49 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:17 | 2:12 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:39 | 0:00 |
| D. Toninato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8:58 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21:12 | 2:28 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 21:58 | 1:32 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 18:07 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:05 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:40 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 34 | 31 | 3 | .912 | 59:23 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
MTL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Suzuki | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 0 | 17:23 | 3:21 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:23 | 0:47 |
| I. Demidov | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:23 | 3:02 |
| C. Caufield | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:16 | 3:24 |
| J. Evans | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:27 | 0:01 |
| J. Slafkovský | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:16 | 3:13 |
| O. Kapanen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:34 | 0:35 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:39 | 0:00 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:06 | 0:00 |
| A. Texier | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:04 | 0:35 |
| O. Beck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:24 | 0:00 |
| B. Gallagher | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:20 | 0:35 |
| L. Hutson | D | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 26:19 | 3:25 |
| N. Dobson | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 22:32 | 0:35 |
| A. Carrier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 0 | 24:58 | 0:27 |
| A. Xhekaj | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16:17 | 0:00 |
| A. Engstrom | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Struble | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CHI
MTL
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.7, MTL 3.1 | CHI 1, MTL 4 |
| Total goals | 5.8 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 24.6, MTL 27.8 | CHI 15, MTL 35 |
| Win chance | MTL 57% | MTL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL C. Caufield | 3.1 | 4 | 0.87 | 1 | 35% | 0 |
| MTL N. Suzuki | 2.3 | 2 | 1.02 | 2 | 30% | 1 |
| MTL N. Dobson | 2.3 | 2 | 0.66 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 2.0 | 2 | 0.63 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.0 | 2 | 0.70 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| MTL J. Slafkovský | 2.0 | 5 | 0.63 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.8 | 2 | 0.43 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL Z. Bolduc | 1.8 | 2 | 0.50 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| MTL O. Kapanen | 1.8 | 3 | 0.49 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| MTL B. Gallagher | 1.7 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 0 | 0.68 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.6 | 0 | 0.48 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| MTL L. Hutson | 1.6 | 1 | 0.94 | 3 | 10% | 0 |
| MTL A. Texier | 1.6 | 2 | 0.44 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL J. Anderson | 1.5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| MTL I. Demidov | 1.4 | 5 | 0.71 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 1.4 | 0 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.42 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.2 | 2 | 0.61 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 1.2 | 2 | 0.25 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI O. Moore | 1.2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.2 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL J. Evans | 1.1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI M. Grzelcyk | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 1 | 3% | 0 |
| MTL J. Veleno | 1.1 | 3 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| MTL A. Carrier | 1.1 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| MTL A. Xhekaj | 1.0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.0 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| MTL O. Beck | 0.9 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| MTL J. Struble | 0.7 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI D. Toninato | 0.7 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| MTL A. Engstrom | 0.6 | 2 | 0.13 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 22 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.