Game Recap: CHI 2, NSH 3 (SO), January 16, 2025

Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!

Game Recap

CHI2

Final/SOThu, Jan 16, 2025Every game that night

NSH3

NSH beat CHI 3-2 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.32 expected goals to 2.14. NSH outshot CHI 41 to 26. T. Bertuzzi led the way with 2 points (0 G, 2 A). F. Nazar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.0. J. Saros stopped 24 of 26.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	SO	T
CHI	0	2	0	0	2
NSH	1	0	1	1	3

1st 8:07NSHS. StamkosPP0.07 xG
2nd 6:30CHIC. Bedard0.17 xG
2nd 7:57CHIA. Martinez0.02 xG
3rd 16:57NSHF. Forsberg0.05 xG

Team Stats

CHINSH

26Shots on goal41

2.14Expected goals4.32

46Shot attempts72

215v5 shots on goal31

0/1Power play1/4

33Hits35

17Blocked shots13

11Penalty minutes7

4Giveaways9

5Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.14 xGNSH 4.32 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI25 on goal, 2 scored

NSH39 on goal, 2 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	2	2	5	2	1	+2	0	18:27	0:50
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	3	1	0	+2	0	24:44	0:59
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	18:12	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	17:56	0:53
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	6	3	0	+2	0	17:04	0:36
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	2	16:24	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:58	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:06	0:46
T. Hall	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:45	0:23
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	11:39	0:08
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:17	0:23
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	9:46	0:00
S. Jones	D	0	1	1	2	2	1	+2	2	25:55	0:54
A. Martinez	D	1	0	1	2	3	4	+2	2	23:14	0:32
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	1	5	3	-1	0	26:02	0:06
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	5	1	-1	0	21:13	0:15
T. Brodie	D	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:14	0:05
N. Allan	D	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	13:52	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	41	39	2	.951	65:00	OT loss
P. Mrazek	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	3	1	0	-1	0	22:56	4:09
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	21:21	4:03
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	7	6	0	0	0	19:32	4:13
R. O'Reilly	C	0	0	0	4	0	2	-1	0	22:31	4:00
G. Nyquist	RW	0	0	0	2	3	0	-1	0	20:10	1:25
T. Novak	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	14:14	1:34
M. Jankowski	LW	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:31	0:00
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	13:20	1:31
V. Hinostroza	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	12:17	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	5	11:53	0:00
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	0	11:51	0:00
F. Svechkov	C	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	0	9:39	1:13
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	2	31:25	4:14
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	18:05	0:08
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	2	0	2	-1	0	20:23	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	3	5	4	0	0	19:45	1:20
S. Stastney	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	16:09	0:00
L. Schenn	D	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	0	13:58	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Saros	26	24	2	.923	65:00	Win
J. Annunen	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.4, NSH 3.4	CHI 2, NSH 3
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	CHI 24.9, NSH 32.5	CHI 26, NSH 41
Win chance	NSH 66%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.6	7	1.11	1	39%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	3.3	3	0.97	1	39%	0
NSH R. Josi	2.9	3	1.02	1	21%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.5	2	0.97	1	37%	1
CHI C. Bedard	2.4	3	0.81	1	23%	1
CHI R. Donato	2.1	0	0.44	0	18%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.0	3	0.52	0	12%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.0	4	0.78	0	28%	0
CHI S. Jones	1.9	2	0.43	1	10%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	5	0.57	2	23%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	2	0.40	0	19%	0
CHI T. Hall	1.7	2	0.50	0	18%	0
NSH T. Novak	1.6	2	0.53	0	20%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.6	1	0.44	0	17%	0
NSH V. Hinostroza	1.6	2	0.38	0	15%	0
NSH G. Nyquist	1.5	2	0.74	0	22%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.5	1	0.59	0	20%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	1	0.32	1	9%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.4	1	0.31	0	10%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.4	2	0.36	0	17%	0
NSH M. Jankowski	1.4	0	0.39	0	17%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.3	2	0.31	0	16%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.3	1	0.29	0	5%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.3	0	0.37	0	16%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.3	3	0.38	0	15%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.2	1	0.32	0	14%	0
NSH L. Schenn	1.2	2	0.16	0	4%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.1	2	0.26	0	9%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.1	0	0.17	0	6%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.1	0	0.27	0	9%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.0	6	0.26	0	13%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.0	2	0.24	1	6%	1
CHI P. Maroon	0.9	0	0.23	0	8%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.7	0	0.20	0	5%	0
CHI T. Brodie	0.5	0	0.22	0	3%	0
CHI N. Allan	0.5	0	0.22	0	4%	0

Shots on goal: 26 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.