Game Recap: CHI 2, NSH 3 (OT), March 8, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI2

Final/OTSat, Mar 8, 2025Every game that night

NSH3

NSH beat CHI 3-2 in overtime, and the chances backed it up: 4.43 expected goals to 1.81. NSH outshot CHI 41 to 19. S. Stamkos scored three for NSH. S. Stamkos had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.6. J. Annunen stopped 17 of 19.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
CHI	0	1	1	0	2
NSH	0	2	0	1	3

2nd 1:56CHIA. Vlasic0.02 xG
2nd 2:36NSHS. StamkosPP0.10 xG
2nd 12:20NSHS. Stamkos0.25 xG
3rd 12:22CHII. Mikheyev0.16 xG
OT 2:39NSHS. Stamkos0.12 xG

Team Stats

CHINSH

19Shots on goal41

1.81Expected goals4.43

37Shot attempts68

165v5 shots on goal30

0/3Power play1/4

21Hits24

13Blocked shots9

13Penalty minutes11

18Giveaways12

8Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.81 xGNSH 4.43 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI19 on goal, 2 scored

NSH38 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	22:30	4:46
R. Donato	C	0	1	1	2	2	0	+1	0	19:45	4:25
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	0	1	1	0	2	+1	2	17:04	1:40
C. Dach	C	0	1	1	2	3	0	+1	7	11:23	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	21:24	5:05
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:42	0:50
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	14:16	4:22
J. Veleno	C	0	0	0	1	3	1	-1	0	13:07	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	0	12:48	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	-1	0	11:18	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:01	0:58
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:16	1:14
A. Vlasic	D	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	0	25:15	4:46
C. Murphy	D	0	1	1	0	2	2	+1	0	21:01	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	19:32	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	+1	4	17:21	1:14
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	5	4	-1	0	17:01	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	16:58	0:15

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	41	38	3	.927	62:39	OT loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
S. Stamkos	C	3	0	3	7	0	0	+1	0	21:43	4:00
R. O'Reilly	C	0	1	1	2	1	1	-1	0	21:25	3:58
J. Marchessault	RW	0	1	1	2	1	0	-1	0	20:08	4:04
F. Svechkov	C	0	1	1	3	0	0	+1	0	14:54	2:08
F. Forsberg	LW	0	0	0	3	0	1	-1	0	20:00	4:08
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	18:29	2:00
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	4	4	0	0	0	15:58	0:07
C. Sissons	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:50	1:04
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	0	0	14:37	0:07
J. Vrana	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	12:12	1:59
K. Bellows	LW	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	0	9:49	0:07
N. Blankenburg	D	0	1	1	1	2	1	+1	0	19:05	3:16
S. Stastney	D	0	1	1	1	0	0	-1	0	18:34	0:00
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	4	17:49	2:47
J. Barron	D	0	0	0	3	3	2	0	5	17:41	0:07
J. Oesterle	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	16:27	0:58
A. Englund	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	15:29	0:00
M. Del Gaizo	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	12:47	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	19	17	2	.895	62:39	Win
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.4, NSH 3.6	CHI 2, NSH 3
Total goals	6.0	5
Shots on goal	CHI 23.6, NSH 34.4	CHI 19, NSH 41
Win chance	NSH 69%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.8	3	1.13	0	41%	0
NSH J. Marchessault	3.0	2	0.88	1	35%	0
NSH S. Stamkos	2.6	7	0.96	3	37%	3
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	4	0.81	1	24%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.4	2	0.69	1	24%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.3	2	0.83	1	28%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.2	3	0.53	0	20%	0
NSH B. Skjei	2.2	1	0.57	0	15%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	1	0.44	1	19%	1
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.8	0	0.56	0	22%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.6	0	0.46	0	16%	0
NSH M. Gaizo	1.6	1	0.32	0	5%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.6	1	0.69	0	21%	0
NSH K. Bellows	1.5	3	0.29	0	13%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.5	3	0.32	0	16%	0
NSH C. Sissons	1.5	0	0.44	0	15%	0
NSH F. Svechkov	1.4	3	0.35	1	18%	0
NSH J. Vrana	1.4	2	0.42	0	21%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.4	1	0.33	1	9%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.3	4	0.30	0	12%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	1	0.39	0	14%	0
NSH J. Barron	1.2	3	0.33	0	11%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.2	0	0.26	1	7%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.2	2	0.32	1	12%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.1	1	0.26	0	11%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	2	0.31	1	5%	1
NSH J. Oesterle	1.1	1	0.25	0	4%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	2	0.20	0	5%	0
CHI P. Maroon	1.0	0	0.26	0	8%	0
CHI A. Martinez	1.0	0	0.27	0	8%	0
CHI L. Reichel	1.0	0	0.28	0	10%	0
CHI J. Veleno	1.0	1	0.24	0	11%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.9	1	0.29	0	9%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	1	0.15	0	6%	0
NSH S. Stastney	0.8	1	0.22	1	5%	0
NSH A. Englund	0.6	1	0.14	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.