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Game Recap
CHI3
NSH0
CHI beat NSH 3-0, with the chances close: 2.91 expected goals to 3.08. NSH outshot CHI 36 to 21. T. Bertuzzi led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). T. Jost had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.1. D. Commesso stopped 36 of 36.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| NSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
- 2nd 6:41CHIT. BertuzziPP0.15 xG
- 3rd 11:01CHIN. Lardis0.16 xG
- 3rd 18:32CHIR. GreeneEN0.80 xG
Team Stats
CHINSH
21Shots on goal36
2.91Expected goals3.08
40Shot attempts63
165v5 shots on goal28
1/3Power play0/3
18Hits20
8Blocked shots8
8Penalty minutes8
14Giveaways12
2Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.91 xGNSH 3.08 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 20:54 | 3:45 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:50 | 3:54 |
| R. Greene | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:56 | 1:42 |
| N. Lardis | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 12:44 | 1:46 |
| A. Burakovsky | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17:32 | 3:53 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:49 | 0:00 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:09 | 3:50 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12:15 | 0:04 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:29 | 1:48 |
| O. Moore | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:21 | 1:40 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:14 | 0:02 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 23:32 | 3:45 |
| K. Korchinski | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:04 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:01 | 0:03 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:32 | 0:05 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 2 | 17:55 | 0:00 |
| M. Grzelcyk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:46 | 1:48 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Commesso | 36 | 36 | 0 | 1.000 | 60:00 | Win |
| S. Berezhnoy | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NSH Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. O'Reilly | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:22 | 4:01 |
| F. Forsberg | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:11 | 4:01 |
| S. Stamkos | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:59 | 4:02 |
| L. Evangelista | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:16 | 4:03 |
| M. Bunting | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 16:06 | 1:08 |
| E. Haula | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 15:00 | 1:51 |
| M. Wood | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:30 | 1:57 |
| F. Svechkov | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:44 | 0:44 |
| M. McCarron | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:08 |
| C. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 11:20 | 0:00 |
| T. Jost | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:22 | 0:00 |
| R. Schaefer | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 7:42 | 0:07 |
| R. Josi | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 25:04 | 4:12 |
| N. Blankenburg | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:04 | 1:48 |
| B. Skjei | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:02 | 1:58 |
| N. Perbix | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:15 | 0:00 |
| N. Hague | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| A. Wilsby | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:52 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Saros | 20 | 18 | 2 | .900 | 56:51 | Loss |
| J. Annunen | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CHI
Line 1A. Burakovsky13:39C. Bedard14:39R. Greene13:08
Line 2J. Dickinson11:28I. Mikheyev12:05T. Bertuzzi11:16
Line 3N. Foligno9:41L. Slaggert9:32R. Donato12:11
Line 4N. Lardis9:32O. Moore9:29T. Teravainen8:39
Pair 2M. Grzelcyk14:39K. Korchinski14:04
Pair 3W. Kaiser15:05A. Levshunov15:53
NSH
Line 1M. Bunting13:15E. Haula11:31L. Evangelista12:04
Line 2S. Stamkos12:57R. O'Reilly12:11F. Forsberg13:01
Line 3C. Smith9:34M. McCarron9:56R. Schaefer7:35
Line 4F. Svechkov11:49M. Wood11:24T. Jost10:22
Pair 1N. Blankenburg15:26N. Hague15:02
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.7, NSH 3.4 | CHI 3, NSH 0 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 24.2, NSH 30.1 | CHI 21, NSH 36 |
| Win chance | NSH 60% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH F. Forsberg | 3.4 | 2 | 1.04 | 0 | 39% | 0 |
| NSH R. Josi | 2.7 | 3 | 0.89 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH S. Stamkos | 2.6 | 3 | 0.93 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.6 | 3 | 0.88 | 2 | 26% | 0 |
| NSH L. Evangelista | 2.6 | 6 | 0.76 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH R. O'Reilly | 2.1 | 2 | 0.92 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NSH M. Bunting | 2.1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.0 | 3 | 0.63 | 2 | 26% | 1 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.9 | 0 | 0.54 | 0 | 22% | 0 |
| NSH E. Haula | 1.9 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.8 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| NSH B. Skjei | 1.7 | 1 | 0.47 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI A. Burakovsky | 1.6 | 1 | 0.63 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 1.6 | 1 | 0.39 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| CHI N. Lardis | 1.5 | 2 | 0.26 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| NSH M. McCarron | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI A. Levshunov | 1.4 | 0 | 0.46 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH N. Blankenburg | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH C. Smith | 1.4 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NSH M. Wood | 1.4 | 2 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NSH F. Svechkov | 1.3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.3 | 2 | 0.58 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI O. Moore | 1.2 | 1 | 0.38 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.2 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NSH R. Schaefer | 1.1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| NSH A. Wilsby | 1.1 | 2 | 0.24 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NSH N. Perbix | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.1 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NSH T. Jost | 1.1 | 5 | 0.25 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| NSH N. Hague | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.0 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.0 | 1 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI M. Grzelcyk | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI K. Korchinski | 0.9 | 2 | 0.15 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 0.8 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.