Game Recap: CHI 2, NSH 4, February 26, 2026

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Game Recap

CHI2

FinalThu, Feb 26, 2026Every game that night

NSH4

NSH beat CHI 4-2, with the chances close: 2.92 expected goals to 2.87. J. Annunen stopped 21 of 23.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	1	1	2
NSH	1	0	3	4

1st 13:50NSHF. Forsberg0.12 xG
2nd 4:13CHIC. Bedard0.11 xG
3rd 3:16CHIT. BertuzziPP0.36 xG
3rd 7:12NSHM. WoodPP0.07 xG
3rd 16:44NSHR. O'Reilly0.17 xG
3rd 19:12NSHS. StamkosEN0.39 xG

Team Stats

CHINSH

23Shots on goal26

2.87Expected goals2.92

44Shot attempts42

135v5 shots on goal22

1/5Power play1/1

15Hits26

6Blocked shots12

4Penalty minutes12

15Giveaways13

2Takeaways6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.87 xGNSH 2.92 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI23 on goal, 2 scored

NSH24 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	0	21:29	7:10
T. Teravainen	C	0	1	1	2	0	0	-2	0	19:49	6:34
T. Bertuzzi	LW	1	0	1	3	0	0	-2	0	17:56	6:53
R. Greene	C	0	1	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:44	2:46
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	4	0	0	-2	0	18:13	7:04
A. Burakovsky	LW	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	17:08	3:17
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	1	3	0	-1	2	14:55	2:59
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:07	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:44	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	12:54	2:39
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:55	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	9:58	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	1	1	3	0	1	-1	2	20:53	5:31
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	22:39	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	2	1	-1	0	17:47	3:34
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:11	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0	16:16	0:48
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	15:12	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	25	22	3	.880	59:15	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

NSH Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. O'Reilly	C	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	18:40	0:47
F. Forsberg	LW	1	0	1	4	2	0	+1	0	17:40	1:23
E. Haula	LW	0	1	1	0	6	0	+2	4	15:56	0:32
S. Stamkos	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	14:54	1:23
M. Wood	RW	1	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	10:07	0:32
C. Smith	RW	0	0	0	0	2	1	+1	0	16:20	0:00
M. McCarron	C	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	4	14:40	0:00
J. Marchessault	RW	0	0	0	2	0	0	+1	0	14:23	0:49
L. Evangelista	RW	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	14:20	1:08
T. Jost	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:20	0:00
M. Bunting	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	11:28	1:06
Z. L'Heureux	LW	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	9:45	0:00
R. Josi	D	0	1	1	0	0	2	+1	0	25:25	1:23
N. Hague	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	22:03	0:00
N. Perbix	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	19:57	0:00
N. Blankenburg	D	0	0	0	1	4	1	+1	0	19:52	0:32
B. Skjei	D	0	0	0	1	2	3	+2	0	17:17	0:00
A. Wilsby	D	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	2	14:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Annunen	23	21	2	.913	60:00	Win
J. Saros	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky13:46R. Greene13:07C. Bedard13:34

Line 2I. Mikheyev13:16J. Dickinson12:54R. Donato11:55

Line 3N. Foligno11:56T. Teravainen11:50L. Slaggert9:40

Line 4T. Bertuzzi10:23O. Moore10:15F. Nazar10:05

Pair 1A. Vlasic21:21L. Crevier16:34

Pair 2M. Grzelcyk14:10A. Levshunov14:13

Pair 3C. Murphy13:49S. Rinzel14:37

NSH

Line 1F. Forsberg16:17J. Marchessault13:34E. Haula13:13

Line 2R. O'Reilly13:52L. Evangelista13:12S. Stamkos12:46

Line 3T. Jost10:50M. Wood9:30Z. L'Heureux8:24

Line 4C. Smith10:11M. McCarron9:49M. Bunting10:22

Pair 1R. Josi22:34B. Skjei11:11

Pair 2N. Hague17:30N. Blankenburg14:50

Pair 3N. Perbix15:23A. Wilsby13:57

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 3.0, NSH 3.4	CHI 2, NSH 4
Total goals	6.3	6
Shots on goal	CHI 25.5, NSH 30.6	CHI 23, NSH 26
Win chance	NSH 57%	NSH won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
NSH F. Forsberg	3.3	4	1.04	1	38%	1
NSH R. Josi	3.3	0	1.06	1	27%	0
CHI C. Bedard	3.0	5	1.04	1	30%	1
NSH S. Stamkos	2.6	4	0.93	1	37%	1
NSH J. Marchessault	2.4	2	0.69	0	29%	0
NSH L. Evangelista	2.4	3	0.72	0	19%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.3	3	0.79	1	30%	1
CHI F. Nazar	2.2	4	0.65	0	21%	0
NSH R. O'Reilly	2.1	3	0.96	1	30%	1
NSH M. Bunting	2.0	2	0.53	0	21%	0
NSH B. Skjei	1.8	1	0.46	0	13%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	0	0.51	0	22%	0
NSH E. Haula	1.8	0	0.46	1	18%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.7	3	0.41	1	7%	0
NSH M. McCarron	1.6	2	0.29	0	14%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.5	0	0.52	0	20%	0
NSH Z. L'Heureux	1.5	0	0.30	0	12%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.4	1	0.26	0	7%	0
NSH C. Smith	1.4	0	0.28	0	12%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.3	1	0.51	0	16%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.3	0	0.45	0	6%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	2	0.63	1	20%	0
CHI R. Greene	1.3	1	0.35	1	13%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.2	0	0.35	0	15%	0
NSH A. Wilsby	1.2	1	0.29	0	5%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	0	0.38	0	11%	0
NSH M. Wood	1.2	1	0.28	1	12%	1
NSH T. Jost	1.1	1	0.22	0	9%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	1	0.25	0	6%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	0	0.29	0	4%	0
NSH N. Blankenburg	1.0	1	0.29	0	8%	0
NSH N. Perbix	1.0	0	0.27	0	7%	0
NSH N. Hague	1.0	1	0.23	0	6%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	1.0	1	0.31	0	3%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	0.9	0	0.20	0	8%	0
CHI N. Foligno	0.8	1	0.30	0	10%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.3 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.