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Game Recap
CHI4
NYI5
NYI beat CHI 5-4 despite fewer good chances: 1.55 expected goals to 2.14. CHI outshot NYI 30 to 21. C. Bedard led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). C. Smith had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. I. Sorokin stopped 26 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| NYI | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
- 1st 16:47CHIC. BedardPP0.13 xG
- 2nd 6:59NYID. Cholowski0.05 xG
- 2nd 14:06NYIS. Holmstrom0.04 xG
- 3rd 5:39NYIN. Dobson0.07 xG
- 3rd 6:36NYIB. Horvat0.11 xG
- 3rd 7:58NYIM. Tsyplakov0.28 xG
- 3rd 11:04CHIT. Brodie0.02 xG
- 3rd 18:50CHIT. Bertuzzi0.10 xG
- 3rd 19:50CHIT. Bertuzzi0.17 xG
Team Stats
CHINYI
30Shots on goal21
2.14Expected goals1.55
61Shot attempts49
255v5 shots on goal19
1/2Power play0/3
15Hits22
15Blocked shots19
6Penalty minutes4
18Giveaways27
5Takeaways6
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.14 xGNYI 1.55 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Bedard | C | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 18:35 | 3:06 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:56 | 3:06 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:20 | 3:06 |
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 15:18 | 0:31 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:30 | 3:06 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 16:15 | 0:00 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 15:58 | 0:00 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 15:24 | 0:00 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:43 | 0:31 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 9:42 | 0:31 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -2 | 2 | 9:33 | 0:31 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 25:23 | 3:04 |
| T. Brodie | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 17:12 | 0:00 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20:40 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 19:36 | 0:00 |
| K. Korchinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 | 17:52 | 0:33 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14:29 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 19 | 14 | 5 | .737 | 47:58 | Loss |
| D. Commesso | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1.000 | 11:21 |
NYI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Holmstrom | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 16:40 | 2:24 |
| J. Pageau | C | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 16:19 | 1:51 |
| B. Nelson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 22:50 | 3:52 |
| K. Palmieri | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:07 | 4:41 |
| B. Horvat | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 16:55 | 2:42 |
| M. Tsyplakov | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 15:56 | 2:47 |
| A. Lee | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:34 | 3:13 |
| P. Engvall | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:26 | 0:50 |
| C. Cizikas | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 13:23 | 0:00 |
| K. MacLean | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:30 | 0:00 |
| O. Wahlstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 10:01 | 0:00 |
| M. Martin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8:44 | 0:00 |
| N. Dobson | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 4:23 |
| R. Pulock | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 22:21 | 1:37 |
| D. Cholowski | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 18:09 | 1:40 |
| A. Romanov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:19 | 0:00 |
| S. Mayfield | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 15:57 | 0:00 |
| I. George | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 14:33 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Sorokin | 30 | 26 | 4 | .867 | 60:00 | Win |
| M. Hogberg | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.4, NYI 3.2 | CHI 4, NYI 5 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 9 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 25.9, NYI 31.0 | CHI 30, NYI 21 |
| Win chance | NYI 64% | NYI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI B. Horvat | 3.1 | 2 | 0.87 | 1 | 36% | 1 |
| NYI B. Nelson | 3.0 | 1 | 0.93 | 1 | 39% | 0 |
| NYI A. Lee | 2.9 | 1 | 0.71 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| NYI K. Palmieri | 2.9 | 1 | 0.82 | 1 | 33% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.5 | 4 | 0.74 | 3 | 22% | 1 |
| NYI N. Dobson | 2.3 | 1 | 0.69 | 2 | 10% | 1 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.2 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 2.0 | 1 | 0.55 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.8 | 5 | 0.54 | 2 | 22% | 2 |
| NYI J. Pageau | 1.7 | 3 | 0.56 | 3 | 21% | 0 |
| NYI M. Tsyplakov | 1.7 | 2 | 0.59 | 1 | 20% | 1 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.6 | 0 | 0.53 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.6 | 5 | 0.31 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.5 | 2 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.5 | 1 | 0.41 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI O. Wahlstrom | 1.5 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| NYI R. Pulock | 1.5 | 0 | 0.38 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| NYI P. Engvall | 1.4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.4 | 2 | 0.31 | 2 | 5% | 0 |
| NYI A. Romanov | 1.3 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYI S. Holmstrom | 1.3 | 1 | 0.47 | 3 | 22% | 1 |
| CHI K. Korchinski | 1.3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.2 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.1 | 2 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.0 | 3 | 0.18 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYI C. Cizikas | 1.0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| NYI D. Cholowski | 1.0 | 2 | 0.35 | 1 | 5% | 1 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYI S. Mayfield | 0.9 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYI M. Martin | 0.8 | 0 | 0.14 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYI K. MacLean | 0.8 | 3 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.6 | 1 | 0.25 | 1 | 2% | 1 |
| NYI I. George | 0.6 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.5 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.