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Game Recap
CHI4
FinalTue, Mar 24, 2026Every game that night
NYI3

CHI beat NYI 4-3 despite fewer good chances: 3.07 expected goals to 4.81. NYI outshot CHI 47 to 24. N. Lardis led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). B. Horvat had 9 shots on goal against our projection of 3.4. A. Soderblom stopped 44 of 47.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CHI3104
NYI1023
  1. 1st 0:49NYIA. Lee0.10 xG
  2. 1st 12:46CHIN. Lardis0.29 xG
  3. 1st 18:06CHII. Mikheyev0.16 xG
  4. 1st 19:31CHIT. Bertuzzi0.47 xG
  5. 2nd 6:02CHIF. Nazar0.11 xG
  6. 3rd 8:45NYIS. Holmstrom0.15 xG
  7. 3rd 16:37NYIC. Ritchie0.06 xG

Team Stats

CHINYI
24Shots on goal47
3.07Expected goals4.81
46Shot attempts91
235v5 shots on goal42
0/2Power play0/2
17Hits31
14Blocked shots12
4Penalty minutes4
15Giveaways9
4Takeaways3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 3.07 xGNYI 4.81 xGGoal

0123451st2nd3rdNYI goal, 0:49CHI goal, 12:46CHI goal, 18:06CHI goal, 19:31CHI goal, 6:02NYI goal, 8:45NYI goal, 16:37

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI23 on goal, 4 scored
NYI46 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
N. LardisLW123101+2014:121:18
T. BertuzziLW112220+2219:152:30
F. NazarC112100+2016:432:27
I. MikheyevRW101101+1019:330:00
A. FrondellC011212-1015:432:29
C. BedardC000400-1019:532:28
R. GreeneC000012-2018:291:17
R. DonatoC0000110215:510:15
A. BurakovskyLW0000000013:091:23
T. TeravainenC0000100012:121:30
S. LaffertyC000110008:110:00
L. SlaggertLW000110007:390:00
A. VlasicD011312+1025:110:23
A. LevshunovD000242-1023:122:44
L. CrevierD0001200019:480:09
W. KaiserD000211+1019:460:00
S. RinzelD000112+2017:201:07
E. Del MastroD000200-1011:260:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Soderblom47443.93660:00Win
S. Knight000–0:00

NYI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
B. HorvatC011910+1022:032:06
M. BarzalC0115000019:322:06
A. LeeLW1013100017:390:48
C. RitchieC1012000017:002:06
S. HolmstromRW1012000014:560:21
B. SchennC000230-1018:292:06
E. HeinemanLW0000730017:270:21
J. PageauC0002100015:040:21
O. PalatLW0001220014:060:00
C. CizikasC000121-1011:050:00
K. MacLeanC000130-107:280:00
M. GatcombC000150-107:060:00
M. SchaeferD011800+2031:592:06
C. SoucyD011121-2020:110:00
S. MayfieldD011223-1018:050:00
A. PelechD000520-1421:580:00
A. BoqvistD0002020017:570:21
T. DeAngeloD000000006:090:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
D. Rittich1293.75020:00
I. Sorokin12111.91737:46Loss

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1I. Mikheyev16:33R. Donato14:42A. Burakovsky11:46
Line 2R. Greene15:43C. Bedard15:38A. Frondell13:14
Line 3T. Bertuzzi14:58F. Nazar13:57N. Lardis12:54
Line 4T. Teravainen10:03S. Lafferty8:11L. Slaggert7:19
Pair 1S. Rinzel16:13W. Kaiser18:32
Pair 2A. Vlasic21:48A. Levshunov20:07
Pair 3L. Crevier15:46E. Mastro11:26

NYI

Line 1B. Horvat16:33E. Heineman17:06A. Lee15:12
Line 2B. Schenn14:26M. Barzal15:39C. Ritchie13:18
Line 3O. Palat14:06J. Pageau12:19S. Holmstrom12:53
Line 4C. Cizikas8:48K. MacLean7:28M. Gatcomb7:06
Pair 1A. Pelech21:50M. Schaefer26:47
Pair 2S. Mayfield15:19A. Boqvist16:22
Pair 3C. Soucy17:29T. DeAngelo6:09

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.5, NYI 3.2CHI 4, NYI 3
Total goals5.67
Shots on goalCHI 23.7, NYI 30.1CHI 24, NYI 47
Win chanceNYI 62%CHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
NYI B. Horvat3.490.87136%0
CHI C. Bedard2.940.90029%0
NYI A. Lee2.730.60126%1
NYI M. Schaefer2.580.79125%0
NYI M. Barzal2.450.93124%0
NYI E. Heineman2.300.43024%0
NYI T. DeAngelo2.200.58012%0
CHI F. Nazar2.110.61221%1
CHI T. Bertuzzi2.020.64227%1
CHI S. Rinzel1.710.3606%0
NYI B. Schenn1.620.59021%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.610.40119%1
CHI R. Greene1.600.40015%0
NYI S. Holmstrom1.520.60124%1
NYI A. Pelech1.450.3106%0
CHI L. Crevier1.410.2206%0
CHI R. Donato1.400.42019%0
NYI C. Ritchie1.420.45118%1
CHI A. Burakovsky1.400.46017%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.300.56020%0
NYI J. Pageau1.320.51018%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.320.3905%0
CHI N. Lardis1.110.26314%1
NYI C. Cizikas1.110.26011%0
CHI A. Vlasic1.130.2713%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.120.2206%0
NYI O. Palat1.110.29013%0
NYI M. Gatcomb1.010.18012%0
NYI C. Soucy0.910.1817%0
NYI K. MacLean0.810.1808%0
NYI S. Mayfield0.820.1614%0
NYI A. Boqvist0.820.2607%0
CHI L. Slaggert0.810.1507%0
CHI E. Mastro0.620.1404%0
CHI S. Lafferty0.610.1207%0

Shots on goal: 19 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.5 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.