Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CHI2
NYR1
CHI beat NYR 2-1, and the chances backed it up: 3.16 expected goals to 2.25. T. Hall led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). A. Panarin had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. A. Soderblom stopped 29 of 30.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| NYR | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
- 1st 8:10CHIT. Bertuzzi0.22 xG
- 1st 19:17NYRW. CuylleSH0.04 xG
- 2nd 6:16CHIT. Hall0.22 xG
Team Stats
CHINYR
32Shots on goal30
3.16Expected goals2.25
59Shot attempts60
285v5 shots on goal25
0/2Power play0/2
14Hits25
17Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes4
9Giveaways15
8Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 3.16 xGNYR 2.25 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hall | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:11 | 1:00 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 19:11 | 2:58 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 18:02 | 2:55 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:53 | 0:07 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:16 | 2:57 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:56 | 2:59 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:35 | 0:03 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 0:00 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 12:00 | 1:01 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 11:58 | 0:57 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 10:26 | 0:56 |
| J. Anderson | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:19 | 0:00 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23:28 | 2:32 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | +1 | 0 | 22:10 | 0:01 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:53 | 0:07 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:08 | 0:01 |
| K. Korchinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16:54 | 1:26 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 14:43 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 30 | 29 | 1 | .967 | 60:00 | Win |
| D. Commesso | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
NYR Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Cuylle | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Carrick | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:31 | 0:00 |
| A. Panarin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24:57 | 2:54 |
| V. Trocheck | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:28 | 2:38 |
| A. Lafrenière | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:09 | 1:23 |
| M. Zibanejad | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:31 | 2:37 |
| F. Chytil | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:53 | 1:03 |
| C. Kreider | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 15:16 | 2:39 |
| K. Kakko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:57 | 1:21 |
| R. Smith | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 13:26 | 1:21 |
| B. Berard | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 8:34 | 0:00 |
| A. Edstrom | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 6:31 | 0:00 |
| K. Miller | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 23:05 | 0:03 |
| A. Fox | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 22:17 | 2:39 |
| B. Schneider | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19:07 | 0:00 |
| Z. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:22 |
| R. Lindgren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 17:44 | 0:00 |
| V. Mancini | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Shesterkin | 32 | 30 | 2 | .938 | 58:13 | Loss |
| J. Quick | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.5, NYR 3.5 | CHI 2, NYR 1 |
| Total goals | 6.0 | 3 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 27.3, NYR 32.1 | CHI 32, NYR 30 |
| Win chance | NYR 66% | CHI won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR A. Panarin | 3.2 | 7 | 1.30 | 0 | 37% | 0 |
| NYR C. Kreider | 2.8 | 3 | 0.80 | 0 | 40% | 0 |
| NYR V. Trocheck | 2.7 | 0 | 0.91 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.7 | 1 | 0.76 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| NYR M. Zibanejad | 2.6 | 2 | 0.96 | 0 | 30% | 0 |
| NYR A. Lafrenière | 2.4 | 2 | 0.71 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 2.1 | 1 | 0.54 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| NYR F. Chytil | 2.1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0 | 20% | 0 |
| NYR W. Cuylle | 2.0 | 3 | 0.54 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| NYR R. Smith | 1.9 | 2 | 0.59 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.8 | 5 | 0.52 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| NYR A. Fox | 1.8 | 0 | 0.91 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.7 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 19% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.6 | 1 | 0.43 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.6 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| NYR K. Kakko | 1.5 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.3 | 2 | 0.29 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI J. Anderson | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.3 | 2 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.2 | 3 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR B. Schneider | 1.2 | 1 | 0.26 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI K. Korchinski | 1.2 | 2 | 0.20 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR K. Miller | 1.2 | 3 | 0.35 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| NYR V. Mancini | 1.1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| NYR Z. Jones | 1.1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.1 | 2 | 0.23 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 1.0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| NYR S. Carrick | 0.9 | 0 | 0.19 | 1 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 0.9 | 3 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| NYR R. Lindgren | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| NYR A. Edstrom | 0.8 | 2 | 0.17 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.6 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 21 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.