Game Recap: CHI 1, SEA 3, November 3, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalMon, Nov 3, 2025Every game that night

SEA3

SEA beat CHI 3-1 despite fewer good chances: 2.13 expected goals to 3.59. J. Eberle led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). N. Foligno had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 1.2. J. Daccord stopped 29 of 30.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	0	1	1
SEA	0	2	1	3

2nd 2:57SEAJ. Oleksiak0.01 xG
2nd 7:36SEAM. BeniersPP0.13 xG
3rd 11:33CHIA. Burakovsky0.19 xG
3rd 16:05SEAJ. Eberle0.14 xG

Team Stats

CHISEA

30Shots on goal24

3.59Expected goals2.13

65Shot attempts42

255v5 shots on goal20

0/3Power play1/2

12Hits20

11Blocked shots19

2Penalty minutes6

21Giveaways20

2Takeaways4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 3.59 xGSEA 2.13 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI30 on goal, 1 scored

SEA23 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	1	1	4	0	0	+1	0	23:12	5:19
A. Burakovsky	LW	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	0	21:26	5:04
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	2	0	0	-1	0	22:05	4:56
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	1	0	2	-1	0	21:42	5:22
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	16:55	0:37
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	16:51	0:32
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	3	1	1	-2	0	16:29	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:27	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	15:04	0:56
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	0	4	2	0	-1	0	12:15	1:05
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	3	3	1	-1	0	8:19	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	2	-1	0	21:01	0:00
S. Rinzel	D	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	0	19:54	5:16
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	19:09	0:45
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	+1	0	16:30	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	0	0	1	-1	0	13:52	0:08
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:06	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	1	0	-1	0	8:30	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	24	21	3	.875	57:05	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

SEA Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
M. Beniers	C	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	2	19:05	1:13
J. Eberle	RW	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	2	17:31	1:13
E. Tolvanen	RW	0	1	1	0	2	0	+1	0	13:49	1:13
C. Stephenson	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	22:09	1:13
J. Schwartz	LW	0	0	0	1	0	3	-1	0	19:53	0:55
K. Kakko	RW	0	0	0	2	0	1	-1	2	15:50	0:55
M. Marchment	LW	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15:03	0:55
S. Wright	C	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	12:58	0:55
R. Winterton	C	0	0	0	1	1	3	+1	0	12:43	0:00
T. Kartye	LW	0	0	0	2	1	1	+1	0	10:19	0:00
J. Nyman	RW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	9:26	0:00
B. Catton	C	0	0	0	1	0	0	+1	0	7:07	0:00
J. Oleksiak	D	1	0	1	1	1	0	+1	0	12:49	0:00
A. Larsson	D	0	0	0	0	4	5	-1	0	28:27	0:00
R. Lindgren	D	0	0	0	0	1	2	+1	0	22:45	0:00
V. Dunn	D	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	20:40	1:13
B. Montour	D	0	0	0	5	1	1	+1	0	19:08	0:55
J. Mahura	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+1	0	14:18	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Daccord	30	29	1	.967	60:00	Win
P. Grubauer	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1A. Burakovsky14:39C. Bedard15:27R. Greene14:59

Line 2I. Mikheyev13:45O. Moore15:33R. Donato12:02

Line 3T. Bertuzzi14:43F. Nazar13:36T. Teravainen14:43

Line 4N. Foligno9:40C. Dach8:10

Pair 1A. Vlasic19:56L. Crevier11:16

Pair 2M. Grzelcyk13:15A. Levshunov15:45

Pair 3W. Kaiser15:13S. Rinzel14:38

SEA

Line 1J. Eberle15:10M. Beniers15:00E. Tolvanen12:26

Line 2J. Schwartz14:38C. Stephenson16:29K. Kakko14:36

Line 3M. Marchment14:08S. Wright12:03J. Nyman9:26

Line 4T. Kartye7:06B. Catton7:05R. Winterton8:35

Pair 1A. Larsson21:43V. Dunn19:14

Pair 2B. Montour18:04R. Lindgren16:55

Pair 3J. Oleksiak10:37J. Mahura11:30

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.8, SEA 3.3	CHI 1, SEA 3
Total goals	6.1	4
Shots on goal	CHI 24.1, SEA 28.9	CHI 30, SEA 24
Win chance	SEA 60%	SEA won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
SEA B. Montour	2.8	5	0.61	0	18%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.5	4	0.83	1	25%	0
SEA J. Schwartz	2.4	1	0.64	0	26%	0
SEA J. Eberle	2.3	3	0.81	2	27%	1
SEA V. Dunn	2.3	1	0.77	0	16%	0
CHI F. Nazar	2.2	1	0.69	0	25%	0
SEA M. Beniers	2.1	1	0.69	2	26%	1
CHI R. Donato	2.1	2	0.60	0	24%	0
SEA M. Marchment	2.0	2	0.63	0	24%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.9	0	0.49	0	22%	0
SEA E. Tolvanen	1.8	0	0.52	1	23%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.7	2	0.58	0	23%	0
CHI S. Rinzel	1.7	3	0.38	0	7%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.7	2	0.58	1	19%	1
SEA K. Kakko	1.6	2	0.54	0	20%	0
SEA A. Larsson	1.5	0	0.36	0	8%	0
SEA S. Wright	1.5	1	0.62	0	24%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	1	0.68	0	21%	0
SEA C. Stephenson	1.4	1	0.83	0	24%	0
SEA J. Nyman	1.4	1	0.40	0	19%	0
SEA B. Catton	1.3	1	0.40	0	12%	0
SEA R. Winterton	1.3	1	0.15	0	9%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.2	3	0.40	0	12%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.2	4	0.41	0	14%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.2	3	0.30	0	11%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	1	0.20	0	4%	0
SEA T. Kartye	1.0	2	0.27	0	13%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.26	0	3%	0
SEA J. Mahura	0.9	1	0.22	0	4%	0
SEA R. Lindgren	0.9	0	0.29	0	5%	0
SEA J. Oleksiak	0.9	1	0.21	1	5%	1
CHI C. Murphy	0.9	0	0.16	0	4%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.9	0	0.24	0	1%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	0.9	1	0.28	0	2%	0
CHI L. Crevier	0.8	0	0.16	0	6%	0
CHI R. Greene	0.8	3	0.32	0	14%	0

Shots on goal: 21 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.