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Game Recap
CHI2
SJS3
SJS beat CHI 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 1.81 expected goals to 3.32. W. Smith led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). T. Toffoli had 8 shots on goal against our projection of 3.2. M. Blackwood stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
| SJS | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
- 1st 6:52SJSW. Smith0.06 xG
- 1st 7:29CHIR. Donato0.08 xG
- 1st 8:19CHIT. Bertuzzi0.56 xG
- 2nd 1:30SJSA. Wennberg0.20 xG
- 2nd 10:42SJSW. SmithPP0.09 xG
Team Stats
CHISJS
29Shots on goal29
3.32Expected goals1.81
72Shot attempts47
275v5 shots on goal28
0/3Power play1/1
13Hits20
9Blocked shots26
2Penalty minutes6
13Giveaways13
7Takeaways7
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 3.32 xGSJS 1.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Hall | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:54 | 1:59 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:25 | 3:22 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:38 | 0:00 |
| R. Donato | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:27 | 0:00 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:55 | 3:20 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 20:22 | 3:21 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:08 | 1:58 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 14:53 | 1:19 |
| C. Smith | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 14:40 | 3:18 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:24 | 0:00 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:59 | 1:57 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 12:08 | 2:01 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 17:54 | 0:00 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 27:09 | 3:18 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:00 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 20:48 | 2:01 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 14:11 | 0:00 |
| N. Allan | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 11:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Mrazek | 29 | 26 | 3 | .897 | 58:41 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Smith | C | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 13:14 | 0:09 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:10 | 1:17 |
| L. Kunin | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 16:35 | 0:09 |
| F. Zetterlund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 14:50 | 0:09 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:59 | 1:17 |
| M. Granlund | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:19 | 1:17 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 16:47 | 1:17 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | +1 | 0 | 16:08 | 0:00 |
| D. Gushchin | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 11:51 | 0:09 |
| N. Sturm | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 9:57 | 0:00 |
| E. Cardwell | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:51 | 0:00 |
| C. Grundstrom | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 9:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Walman | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 0 | 25:04 | 1:17 |
| C. Ceci | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 24:07 | 0:00 |
| J. Rutta | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 21:19 | 0:00 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 21:00 | 0:00 |
| H. Thrun | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13:46 | 0:00 |
| J. Thompson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 13:37 | 0:09 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Blackwood | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 60:00 | Win |
| V. Vanecek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 3.2, SJS 3.1 | CHI 2, SJS 3 |
| Total goals | 6.2 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 29.4, SJS 28.9 | CHI 29, SJS 29 |
| Win chance | CHI 51% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS T. Toffoli | 3.2 | 8 | 0.86 | 0 | 35% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 3.1 | 3 | 0.98 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.8 | 4 | 0.64 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS F. Zetterlund | 2.5 | 1 | 0.60 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| SJS M. Granlund | 2.4 | 3 | 0.96 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI T. Hall | 2.2 | 2 | 0.64 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.2 | 2 | 0.67 | 1 | 26% | 1 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 2.1 | 5 | 0.85 | 0 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS J. Walman | 2.1 | 2 | 0.42 | 1 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 2.1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.8 | 2 | 0.45 | 1 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.7 | 1 | 0.45 | 1 | 18% | 1 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.7 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 1.5 | 3 | 0.24 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.5 | 1 | 0.56 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS D. Gushchin | 1.5 | 2 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS C. Grundstrom | 1.5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS L. Kunin | 1.5 | 1 | 0.33 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.4 | 1 | 0.45 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.4 | 1 | 0.50 | 1 | 17% | 1 |
| SJS C. Ceci | 1.4 | 1 | 0.32 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.3 | 2 | 0.36 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.3 | 0 | 0.25 | 2 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS J. Thompson | 1.2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS J. Rutta | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS N. Sturm | 1.0 | 1 | 0.24 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 0.9 | 2 | 0.30 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI N. Allan | 0.8 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS H. Thrun | 0.8 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.6 | 0 | 0.29 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 24 of 35 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.