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Game Recap
CHI2
SJS4
SJS beat CHI 4-2, with the chances close: 2.81 expected goals to 2.32. C. Graf led the way with 2 points (2 G, 0 A). F. Nazar had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 1.6. A. Georgiev stopped 24 of 26.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| SJS | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
- 1st 3:48SJSW. Smith0.04 xG
- 1st 10:16SJSC. Graf0.13 xG
- 2nd 0:10CHIF. Nazar0.05 xG
- 2nd 10:17SJSC. GrafPP0.10 xG
- 2nd 13:18CHII. Mikheyev0.19 xG
- 3rd 19:27SJST. ToffoliEN0.45 xG
Team Stats
CHISJS
26Shots on goal25
2.32Expected goals2.81
52Shot attempts49
225v5 shots on goal21
0/1Power play1/2
24Hits21
10Blocked shots16
19Penalty minutes7
18Giveaways16
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.32 xGSJS 2.81 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 19:06 | 1:11 |
| R. Donato | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 18:18 | 1:16 |
| F. Nazar | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 2 | 17:19 | 0:49 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 15:17 | 0:38 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:59 | 0:06 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 16:53 | 1:11 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:30 | 0:06 |
| J. Dickinson | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 | 15:10 | 0:00 |
| C. Dach | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 14:21 | 0:37 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:21 | 0:43 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:20 | 1:17 |
| J. Veleno | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:42 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +2 | 0 | 19:17 | 0:06 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 20:57 | 0:00 |
| A. Levshunov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 20:08 | 1:07 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 19:31 | 0:53 |
| A. Martinez | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 18:38 | 0:00 |
| E. Del Mastro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 24 | 21 | 3 | .875 | 58:36 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Graf | RW | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 20:13 | 0:50 |
| W. Smith | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 17:17 | 3:16 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 20:42 | 3:18 |
| W. Eklund | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 18:59 | 3:01 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 18:08 | 3:19 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:25 | 2:59 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 14:12 | 0:00 |
| P. Giles | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:52 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 12:24 | 0:00 |
| N. Gregor | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 2 | 11:50 | 0:00 |
| N. Kovalenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:38 | 0:33 |
| K. Kostin | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:05 | 0:49 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +2 | 0 | 23:37 | 0:00 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 22:11 | 0:31 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 18:30 | 0:00 |
| T. Liljegren | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 17:50 | 0:34 |
| M. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:13 | 0:00 |
| J. Schuldt | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 13:54 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Georgiev | 26 | 24 | 2 | .923 | 60:00 | Win |
| G. Romanov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.9, SJS 3.2 | CHI 2, SJS 4 |
| Total goals | 6.1 | 6 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 25.4, SJS 31.4 | CHI 26, SJS 25 |
| Win chance | SJS 56% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.7 | 4 | 0.97 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 3.2 | 3 | 0.83 | 1 | 35% | 1 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.7 | 0 | 0.98 | 0 | 29% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.5 | 6 | 0.82 | 1 | 28% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.1 | 2 | 0.82 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.0 | 3 | 0.76 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.9 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 23% | 1 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.7 | 0 | 0.62 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.7 | 2 | 0.86 | 1 | 26% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.6 | 6 | 0.53 | 1 | 19% | 1 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.4 | 2 | 0.46 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS T. Liljegren | 1.3 | 2 | 0.33 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.3 | 1 | 0.39 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS N. Gregor | 1.2 | 2 | 0.21 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI C. Dach | 1.2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.2 | 0 | 0.24 | 1 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.2 | 0 | 0.25 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.2 | 3 | 0.39 | 2 | 14% | 2 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.2 | 0 | 0.52 | 1 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.1 | 2 | 0.28 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI J. Dickinson | 1.1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.1 | 2 | 0.39 | 1 | 6% | 0 |
| SJS K. Kostin | 1.1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 17% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 1.0 | 1 | 0.25 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| CHI E. Mastro | 1.0 | 0 | 0.33 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| CHI J. Veleno | 1.0 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS P. Giles | 1.0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 0.9 | 1 | 0.22 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS M. Vlasic | 0.9 | 1 | 0.21 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| SJS N. Kovalenko | 0.9 | 0 | 0.38 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 0.9 | 1 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.6 | 0 | 0.12 | 0 | 1% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 23 of 34 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.