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Game Recap
CHI2
SJS3
SJS beat CHI 3-2 despite fewer good chances: 2.47 expected goals to 3.68. F. Nazar led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). C. Bedard had 7 shots on goal against our projection of 2.9. A. Nedeljkovic stopped 27 of 29.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| SJS | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
- 1st 9:01CHIR. Donato0.45 xG
- 2nd 6:57SJSW. Eklund0.24 xG
- 2nd 14:55SJSK. Sherwood0.09 xG
- 3rd 3:28SJSW. Smith0.24 xG
- 3rd 6:09CHIF. NazarPP0.13 xG
Team Stats
CHISJS
29Shots on goal23
3.68Expected goals2.47
50Shot attempts48
165v5 shots on goal20
1/3Power play0/2
8Hits27
12Blocked shots8
4Penalty minutes6
14Giveaways18
5Takeaways2
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 3.68 xGSJS 2.47 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Nazar | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 21:35 | 5:39 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 2 | 21:13 | 5:39 |
| A. Frondell | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:44 | 4:37 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 18:36 | 4:36 |
| R. Donato | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:40 | 1:13 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20:16 | 4:35 |
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:09 |
| R. Greene | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 15:34 | 1:11 |
| N. Lardis | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -3 | 0 | 13:03 | 0:00 |
| A. Mangiapane | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 10:04 | 0:00 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9:55 | 0:00 |
| S. Boisvert | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7:39 | 0:00 |
| W. Kaiser | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:54 | 1:12 |
| L. Crevier | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:25 | 0:09 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 | 18:00 | 0:00 |
| S. Rinzel | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 16:34 | 0:00 |
| K. Korchinski | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 15:38 | 0:00 |
| E. Del Mastro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14:23 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Knight | 23 | 20 | 3 | .870 | 58:41 | Loss |
| A. Soderblom | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
SJS Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W. Eklund | LW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 15:03 | 1:25 |
| M. Celebrini | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 2 | 22:05 | 3:02 |
| C. Graf | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20:36 | 0:08 |
| A. Wennberg | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 19:14 | 2:27 |
| W. Smith | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 17:47 | 2:39 |
| K. Sherwood | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | +2 | 0 | 13:15 | 1:40 |
| I. Chernyshov | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:27 | 1:21 |
| T. Toffoli | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14:16 | 2:13 |
| M. Misa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13:40 | 0:58 |
| B. Goodrow | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| T. Dellandrea | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 9:23 | 0:00 |
| Z. Ostapchuk | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8:09 | 0:00 |
| V. Desharnais | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 24:11 | 0:09 |
| M. Ferraro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 21:51 | 0:00 |
| D. Orlov | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 | +1 | 2 | 20:48 | 2:34 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:27 | 0:00 |
| S. Dickinson | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 16:22 | 1:25 |
| S. Mukhamadullin | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15:31 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Nedeljkovic | 29 | 27 | 2 | .931 | 59:59 | Win |
| Y. Askarov | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
Lines at 5-on-5
CHI
Line 1T. Bertuzzi14:22A. Frondell12:48I. Mikheyev15:52
Line 3T. Teravainen10:44C. Bedard14:15N. Lardis13:03
Line 4A. Mangiapane10:04L. Slaggert9:07S. Boisvert7:39
Pair 1L. Crevier17:55W. Kaiser19:10
Pair 3K. Korchinski15:38E. Mastro12:45
SJS
Line 1M. Celebrini17:44C. Graf15:43W. Smith15:08
Line 2I. Chernyshov13:06M. Misa12:42T. Toffoli12:03
Line 3K. Sherwood11:35W. Eklund13:38A. Wennberg11:27
Line 4B. Goodrow7:45Z. Ostapchuk8:09T. Dellandrea7:36
Pair 1D. Orlov18:14V. Desharnais18:31
Pair 2N. Leddy15:51S. Dickinson14:57
Pair 3M. Ferraro16:22S. Mukhamadullin13:54
From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 3.0, SJS 3.5 | CHI 2, SJS 3 |
| Total goals | 6.4 | 5 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 24.5, SJS 30.3 | CHI 29, SJS 23 |
| Win chance | SJS 58% | SJS won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS M. Celebrini | 3.8 | 3 | 1.33 | 1 | 38% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.9 | 7 | 1.02 | 1 | 31% | 0 |
| SJS W. Smith | 2.5 | 2 | 0.91 | 1 | 29% | 1 |
| CHI A. Frondell | 2.2 | 4 | 0.77 | 1 | 23% | 0 |
| SJS K. Sherwood | 2.2 | 2 | 0.48 | 1 | 22% | 1 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 2.2 | 6 | 0.72 | 2 | 24% | 1 |
| SJS T. Toffoli | 2.2 | 2 | 0.65 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 2.1 | 3 | 0.81 | 0 | 32% | 0 |
| SJS W. Eklund | 2.0 | 1 | 0.60 | 2 | 17% | 1 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.7 | 1 | 0.53 | 0 | 24% | 0 |
| CHI S. Rinzel | 1.7 | 1 | 0.36 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS I. Chernyshov | 1.6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0 | 18% | 0 |
| SJS C. Graf | 1.6 | 1 | 0.52 | 1 | 20% | 0 |
| CHI N. Lardis | 1.5 | 1 | 0.44 | 0 | 21% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 1.5 | 2 | 0.49 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CHI L. Crevier | 1.5 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI R. Greene | 1.4 | 0 | 0.40 | 0 | 15% | 0 |
| SJS D. Orlov | 1.3 | 3 | 0.53 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| SJS S. Dickinson | 1.3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS A. Wennberg | 1.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 18% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.3 | 1 | 0.64 | 1 | 22% | 0 |
| SJS M. Misa | 1.3 | 0 | 0.45 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI W. Kaiser | 1.1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| SJS M. Ferraro | 1.1 | 2 | 0.27 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI A. Mangiapane | 1.0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.0 | 1 | 0.31 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS T. Dellandrea | 1.0 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS S. Mukhamadullin | 1.0 | 2 | 0.26 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 0.9 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| CHI S. Boisvert | 0.9 | 0 | 0.24 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| SJS B. Goodrow | 0.8 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 9% | 0 |
| SJS Z. Ostapchuk | 0.8 | 1 | 0.12 | 0 | 7% | 0 |
| SJS V. Desharnais | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 2% | 0 |
| CHI E. Mastro | 0.7 | 1 | 0.16 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
| CHI K. Korchinski | 0.7 | 1 | 0.14 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| SJS N. Leddy | 0.7 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 5% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 25 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 fewer than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.