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Game Recap
CHI5
STL6
STL beat CHI 6-5 in a shootout, and the chances backed it up: 4.06 expected goals to 2.09. STL outshot CHI 40 to 21. I. Mikheyev led the way with 3 points (1 G, 2 A). R. Donato had 6 shots on goal against our projection of 2.3. J. Binnington stopped 16 of 21.
Scoring
| 1st | 2nd | 3rd | SO | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| STL | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
- 1st 5:04CHIC. Smith0.10 xG
- 1st 5:42CHIR. Donato0.09 xG
- 2nd 1:40STLP. Broberg0.02 xG
- 2nd 1:50STLN. Walker0.05 xG
- 2nd 17:09STLM. Joseph0.29 xG
- 3rd 3:50CHIA. Martinez0.19 xG
- 3rd 4:32STLC. Fowler0.01 xG
- 3rd 6:08CHIT. Teravainen0.03 xG
- 3rd 11:08CHII. Mikheyev0.17 xG
- 3rd 15:23STLR. Thomas0.32 xG
Team Stats
CHISTL
21Shots on goal40
2.09Expected goals4.06
44Shot attempts71
175v5 shots on goal31
0/1Power play0/2
12Hits27
14Blocked shots14
4Penalty minutes0
24Giveaways12
7Takeaways3
Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.
Expected Goals Over the Game
CHI 2.09 xGSTL 4.06 xGGoal
Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.
Shot Map
GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance
Box Score
CHI Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Mikheyev | RW | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 17:47 | 0:02 |
| T. Teravainen | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19:30 | 1:28 |
| N. Foligno | LW | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 0 | 17:28 | 0:05 |
| C. Bedard | C | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 22:13 | 1:26 |
| R. Donato | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 21:14 | 1:26 |
| C. Smith | C | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:07 | 0:27 |
| P. Maroon | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:16 | 0:29 |
| L. Slaggert | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16:48 | 0:00 |
| F. Nazar | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 0 | 14:22 | 0:32 |
| T. Bertuzzi | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 13:31 | 1:26 |
| L. Reichel | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11:07 | 0:32 |
| P. Kurashev | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10:08 | 0:00 |
| A. Martinez | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 23:13 | 0:00 |
| A. Vlasic | D | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 24:39 | 0:34 |
| S. Jones | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 25:48 | 1:26 |
| C. Murphy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 23:00 | 0:07 |
| T. Brodie | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:44 | 0:00 |
| E. Del Mastro | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 13:05 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Soderblom | 40 | 35 | 5 | .875 | 65:00 | OT loss |
| P. Mrazek | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
STL Skaters
| Player | Pos | G | A | P | SOG | HIT | BLK | +/- | PIM | TOI | PP TOI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Thomas | C | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:06 | 2:04 |
| B. Schenn | C | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 17:55 | 1:54 |
| M. Joseph | RW | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 12:35 | 0:00 |
| P. Buchnevich | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21:06 | 2:02 |
| D. Holloway | LW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17:23 | 1:52 |
| Z. Bolduc | RW | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 14:20 | 0:42 |
| N. Walker | LW | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:39 | 0:04 |
| J. Kyrou | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 0 | 22:39 | 3:06 |
| R. Faksa | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14:07 | 0:04 |
| O. Sundqvist | C | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13:47 | 2:10 |
| A. Toropchenko | RW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 12:38 | 0:04 |
| J. Neighbours | LW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | -2 | 0 | 11:44 | 1:43 |
| P. Broberg | D | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 19:01 | 0:04 |
| C. Fowler | D | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 22:22 | 2:08 |
| C. Parayko | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | +1 | 0 | 22:58 | 0:15 |
| R. Suter | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19:42 | 0:00 |
| J. Faulk | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 19:03 | 1:48 |
| N. Leddy | D | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | +1 | 0 | 18:06 | 0:00 |
| Goalie | SA | SV | GA | SV% | TOI | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Binnington | 21 | 16 | 5 | .762 | 64:49 | Win |
| J. Hofer | 0 | 0 | 0 | – | 0:00 |
How We Did
| We projected | It finished | |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CHI 2.3, STL 3.4 | CHI 5, STL 6 |
| Total goals | 5.6 | 11 |
| Shots on goal | CHI 24.1, STL 31.4 | CHI 21, STL 40 |
| Win chance | STL 68% | STL won |
Players
| Player | SOG projected | SOG | Points projected | Points | Goal chance | Goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL J. Kyrou | 3.1 | 6 | 0.97 | 0 | 38% | 0 |
| STL D. Holloway | 2.6 | 4 | 0.73 | 1 | 27% | 0 |
| CHI C. Bedard | 2.6 | 1 | 0.81 | 1 | 25% | 0 |
| STL R. Thomas | 2.4 | 5 | 1.09 | 2 | 28% | 1 |
| STL P. Buchnevich | 2.4 | 0 | 0.92 | 1 | 32% | 0 |
| CHI R. Donato | 2.3 | 6 | 0.54 | 1 | 21% | 1 |
| CHI S. Jones | 2.1 | 2 | 0.47 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL B. Schenn | 2.0 | 2 | 0.71 | 2 | 25% | 0 |
| STL C. Parayko | 2.0 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| CHI T. Bertuzzi | 1.8 | 2 | 0.53 | 0 | 23% | 0 |
| STL J. Faulk | 1.8 | 3 | 0.50 | 0 | 8% | 0 |
| STL J. Neighbours | 1.7 | 1 | 0.49 | 0 | 25% | 0 |
| CHI T. Teravainen | 1.7 | 2 | 0.62 | 2 | 21% | 1 |
| CHI C. Smith | 1.7 | 2 | 0.28 | 1 | 13% | 1 |
| CHI I. Mikheyev | 1.6 | 1 | 0.33 | 3 | 17% | 1 |
| STL Z. Bolduc | 1.6 | 1 | 0.44 | 1 | 17% | 0 |
| CHI F. Nazar | 1.5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0 | 16% | 0 |
| STL C. Fowler | 1.4 | 2 | 0.54 | 1 | 9% | 1 |
| STL M. Joseph | 1.4 | 2 | 0.33 | 2 | 12% | 1 |
| STL P. Broberg | 1.4 | 2 | 0.34 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| CHI N. Foligno | 1.3 | 1 | 0.38 | 2 | 15% | 0 |
| CHI L. Slaggert | 1.3 | 1 | 0.29 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI A. Vlasic | 1.3 | 0 | 0.26 | 1 | 4% | 0 |
| STL A. Toropchenko | 1.3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0 | 13% | 0 |
| CHI C. Murphy | 1.2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 6% | 0 |
| CHI A. Martinez | 1.1 | 3 | 0.24 | 2 | 6% | 1 |
| CHI L. Reichel | 1.1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 10% | 0 |
| STL R. Faksa | 1.1 | 4 | 0.29 | 0 | 12% | 0 |
| STL O. Sundqvist | 1.1 | 3 | 0.39 | 0 | 14% | 0 |
| STL N. Leddy | 1.1 | 3 | 0.34 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI P. Maroon | 1.0 | 0 | 0.23 | 1 | 8% | 0 |
| STL N. Walker | 1.0 | 1 | 0.29 | 1 | 14% | 1 |
| CHI P. Kurashev | 1.0 | 0 | 0.30 | 0 | 11% | 0 |
| STL R. Suter | 0.8 | 1 | 0.23 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
| CHI E. Mastro | 0.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 0 | 4% | 0 |
| CHI T. Brodie | 0.5 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 3% | 0 |
Shots on goal: 17 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.
Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.