Game Recap: CHI 1, STL 4, March 22, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI1

FinalSat, Mar 22, 2025Every game that night

STL4

STL beat CHI 4-1, with the chances close: 2.70 expected goals to 2.33. A. Toropchenko led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). J. Hofer stopped 26 of 27.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	0	1	0	1
STL	0	2	2	4

2nd 15:13STLR. Thomas0.24 xG
2nd 17:20STLA. Toropchenko0.17 xG
2nd 19:06CHII. MikheyevSH0.16 xG
3rd 1:12STLN. Walker0.22 xG
3rd 7:43STLZ. Bolduc0.16 xG

Team Stats

CHISTL

27Shots on goal25

2.33Expected goals2.70

50Shot attempts52

255v5 shots on goal24

0/0Power play0/2

19Hits24

12Blocked shots10

24Penalty minutes10

13Giveaways10

2Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 2.33 xGSTL 2.70 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI27 on goal, 1 scored

STL25 on goal, 4 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
I. Mikheyev	RW	1	1	4	1	1	0	0	17:37	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	4	0	1	-1	0	18:07	0:00
J. Veleno	C	0	0	3	2	1	-1	0	17:50	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	3	2	0	0	2	17:24	0:00
N. Foligno	LW	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	17:16	0:00
C. Bedard	C	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	17:16	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	-3	0	17:03	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	3	1	0	-1	0	14:41	0:00
L. Slaggert	LW	0	0	1	1	1	-1	0	13:41	0:00
P. Maroon	LW	0	0	1	1	0	-1	5	10:41	0:00
L. Reichel	LW	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	10:25	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	1	0	0	0	17	3:55	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	2	2	1	-1	0	26:03	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	1	2	-1	0	23:30	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	0	0	0	0	1	-2	0	22:41	0:00
E. Del Mastro	D	0	0	0	2	2	-2	0	21:39	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	21:16	0:00
A. Martinez	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4:55	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
A. Soderblom	25	21	4	.840	60:00	Loss
S. Knight	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
N. Walker	LW	1	1	2	2	6	2	+2	0	15:02	0:53
A. Toropchenko	RW	1	1	2	3	5	0	+2	0	12:30	0:00
D. Holloway	LW	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	18:23	2:15
R. Thomas	C	1	0	1	4	0	0	+1	0	17:24	2:48
J. Kyrou	RW	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	0	17:14	2:13
B. Schenn	C	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	17:13	1:28
Z. Bolduc	RW	1	0	1	1	0	0	+1	0	16:01	1:47
R. Faksa	C	0	1	1	1	1	0	+2	0	12:55	0:00
A. Texier	LW	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	15:53	1:45
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:31	0:00
J. Neighbours	LW	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	13:41	0:55
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	12:53	1:45
P. Broberg	D	0	1	1	2	0	0	+2	0	20:57	0:04
J. Faulk	D	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	20:54	1:38
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	1	0	0	+2	0	21:26	2:29
R. Suter	D	0	0	0	1	0	2	+1	0	18:42	0:00
T. Tucker	D	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	5	17:15	0:00
N. Leddy	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	+2	0	17:06	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	27	26	1	.963	60:00	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.4, STL 3.7	CHI 1, STL 4
Total goals	6.1	5
Shots on goal	CHI 22.5, STL 31.3	CHI 27, STL 25
Win chance	STL 70%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
STL J. Kyrou	2.7	2	0.89	1	34%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.4	1	0.81	1	28%	0
CHI R. Donato	2.3	4	0.68	0	25%	0
CHI C. Bedard	2.2	3	0.73	0	24%	0
STL R. Thomas	2.2	4	1.11	1	28%	1
STL B. Schenn	1.9	0	0.73	1	24%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	1	0.58	1	9%	0
STL Z. Bolduc	1.7	1	0.54	1	22%	1
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.6	4	0.41	1	20%	1
STL J. Neighbours	1.6	1	0.57	0	26%	0
STL P. Broberg	1.5	2	0.41	1	10%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.4	3	0.41	0	16%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	1.4	3	0.49	0	20%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.4	0	0.69	0	22%	0
STL A. Texier	1.4	2	0.40	0	16%	0
STL A. Toropchenko	1.3	3	0.30	2	13%	1
STL M. Joseph	1.3	0	0.36	0	12%	0
CHI N. Foligno	1.3	1	0.38	0	15%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	0	0.30	0	5%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.2	1	0.54	0	9%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	1.2	2	0.41	0	15%	0
CHI L. Slaggert	1.1	1	0.22	0	11%	0
CHI C. Murphy	1.1	0	0.22	0	5%	0
STL R. Faksa	1.1	1	0.27	1	11%	0
CHI A. Vlasic	1.1	2	0.29	0	5%	0
STL N. Walker	1.1	2	0.30	2	15%	1
CHI W. Kaiser	1.1	0	0.21	0	5%	0
CHI J. Dickinson	1.0	1	0.29	0	14%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.0	0	0.22	0	7%	0
CHI P. Maroon	1.0	1	0.25	0	9%	0
CHI E. Mastro	0.9	0	0.22	0	7%	0
CHI L. Reichel	0.9	1	0.27	0	10%	0
CHI J. Veleno	0.8	3	0.21	0	10%	0
STL N. Leddy	0.8	1	0.30	0	4%	0
CHI A. Martinez	0.8	0	0.21	0	6%	0
STL R. Suter	0.8	1	0.23	0	3%	0

Shots on goal: 22 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.