Go ad-free AND support the site for the 26-27 season for just $18. Sign up now!
Game Recap
CHI8
FinalWed, Oct 15, 2025Every game that night
STL3

CHI beat STL 8-3, and the chances backed it up: 3.44 expected goals to 2.54. L. Reichel led the way with 3 points (2 G, 1 A). L. Reichel had 5 shots on goal against our projection of 0.8. A. Soderblom stopped 23 of 26.

Scoring

1st2nd3rdT
CHI2338
STL2013
  1. 1st 3:02CHII. Mikheyev0.05 xG
  2. 1st 4:29STLJ. Neighbours0.04 xG
  3. 1st 5:23CHIL. Reichel0.02 xG
  4. 1st 14:54STLD. Holloway0.11 xG
  5. 2nd 2:49CHIL. Reichel0.08 xG
  6. 2nd 4:32CHIF. Nazar0.18 xG
  7. 2nd 8:52CHIJ. Dickinson0.02 xG
  8. 3rd 1:17CHIR. Donato0.06 xG
  9. 3rd 5:03CHIT. BertuzziPP0.17 xG
  10. 3rd 11:28STLT. Tucker0.01 xG
  11. 3rd 12:21CHIR. Greene0.16 xG

Team Stats

CHISTL
29Shots on goal26
3.44Expected goals2.54
53Shot attempts55
255v5 shots on goal26
1/3Power play0/2
9Hits28
9Blocked shots10
4Penalty minutes6
23Giveaways13
11Takeaways1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 3.44 xGSTL 2.54 xGGoal

00.511.522.533.51st2nd3rdCHI goal, 3:02STL goal, 4:29CHI goal, 5:23STL goal, 14:54CHI goal, 2:49CHI goal, 4:32CHI goal, 8:52CHI goal, 1:17CHI goal, 5:03STL goal, 11:28CHI goal, 12:21

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI27 on goal, 8 scored
STL26 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
C. BedardC033100+1018:571:26
L. ReichelLW213500+2013:110:00
I. MikheyevRW112310+2018:230:00
T. BertuzziLW1124000016:121:19
R. DonatoC101400+2018:011:36
J. DickinsonC101211+3016:390:00
R. GreeneC101101+1016:291:36
F. NazarC101101+1015:201:19
T. TeravainenC011111+1014:041:19
C. DachC000141-1015:131:43
A. BurakovskyLW000200-1014:561:43
A. VlasicD022002+1022:070:07
W. KaiserD011100+2019:460:00
M. GrzelcykD011001+2014:330:00
L. CrevierD0111000213:450:00
S. RinzelD000111+2218:291:26
A. LevshunovD000110+3016:471:36
C. MurphyD000000-1013:080:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
A. Soderblom26233.88560:00Win
S. Knight000–0:00

STL Skaters

PlayerPosGAPSOGHITBLK+/-PIMTOIPP TOI
J. NeighboursLW112130-2413:381:16
D. HollowayLW101140-1017:381:16
J. KyrouRW0111000016:271:08
P. BuchnevichLW011100-2014:301:37
R. ThomasC000100-2216:241:45
B. SchennC0000400015:541:26
N. WalkerLW000140-1014:510:08
P. SuterC000210-1014:431:03
M. JosephRW0000200014:250:04
J. SnuggerudRW000011-1014:051:39
A. TexierLW000300-1013:520:07
N. BjugstadC000132-1012:360:00
C. ParaykoD0115110021:370:10
T. TuckerD101113-1017:530:00
J. FaulkD0002210021:361:13
P. BrobergD000300-3021:130:00
C. FowlerD0002000018:421:43
L. MaillouxD000122-4015:490:00
GoalieSASVGASV%TOI
J. Hofer22157.68247:45Loss
J. Binnington761.85712:15

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1J. Dickinson15:11I. Mikheyev16:06R. Donato16:25
Line 2L. Reichel13:11R. Greene14:23C. Bedard16:25
Line 3T. Teravainen12:16T. Bertuzzi14:53F. Nazar12:29
Line 4A. Burakovsky12:35C. Dach13:30
Pair 1A. Vlasic20:05S. Rinzel16:15
Pair 2W. Kaiser17:53L. Crevier13:45
Pair 3M. Grzelcyk14:21A. Levshunov13:54

STL

Line 1B. Schenn14:28J. Kyrou14:14D. Holloway15:11
Line 2N. Walker14:08A. Texier13:45N. Bjugstad12:12
Line 3P. Suter12:25J. Snuggerud12:26M. Joseph13:20
Line 4P. Buchnevich11:33R. Thomas12:47J. Neighbours12:22
Pair 1C. Fowler15:37C. Parayko18:37
Pair 2J. Faulk19:40T. Tucker17:11
Pair 3P. Broberg19:05L. Mailloux15:49

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

We projectedIt finished
ScoreCHI 2.4, STL 3.6CHI 8, STL 3
Total goals6.011
Shots on goalCHI 22.1, STL 29.0CHI 29, STL 26
Win chanceSTL 68%CHI won

Players

PlayerSOG projectedSOGPoints projectedPointsGoal chanceGoals
STL J. Kyrou3.010.91136%0
STL D. Holloway2.510.80127%1
STL P. Buchnevich2.210.94130%0
CHI C. Bedard2.210.72324%0
STL P. Suter2.220.71028%0
STL C. Parayko2.050.51113%0
STL R. Thomas2.011.15027%0
STL J. Snuggerud2.000.63022%0
CHI R. Donato1.940.52121%1
STL B. Schenn1.900.74025%0
CHI F. Nazar1.910.57121%1
STL J. Faulk1.920.55010%0
CHI I. Mikheyev1.830.44222%1
CHI S. Rinzel1.710.3406%0
STL J. Neighbours1.610.68228%1
CHI T. Bertuzzi1.540.51221%1
CHI A. Burakovsky1.520.48017%0
STL C. Fowler1.520.68011%0
STL N. Bjugstad1.510.30014%0
STL P. Broberg1.430.43010%0
STL M. Joseph1.400.36012%0
STL N. Walker1.410.37016%0
CHI T. Teravainen1.310.64120%0
STL A. Texier1.230.35014%0
CHI C. Dach1.110.34012%0
CHI W. Kaiser1.110.1714%0
CHI C. Murphy1.100.1704%0
CHI A. Levshunov1.110.2604%0
STL L. Mailloux1.010.3407%0
STL T. Tucker1.010.2017%1
CHI M. Grzelcyk0.900.2612%0
CHI A. Vlasic0.900.2023%0
CHI J. Dickinson0.920.24112%1
CHI L. Reichel0.850.2239%2
CHI L. Crevier0.710.1114%0
CHI R. Greene0.610.16110%1

Shots on goal: 20 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.0 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.