Game Recap: CHI 2, STL 3, December 12, 2025

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Game Recap

CHI2

FinalFri, Dec 12, 2025Every game that night

STL3

STL beat CHI 3-2, and the chances backed it up: 2.60 expected goals to 1.79. A. Burakovsky led the way with 2 points (1 G, 1 A). M. Grzelcyk had 4 shots on goal against our projection of 0.9. J. Hofer stopped 27 of 29.

Scoring

	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CHI	1	0	1	2
STL	2	1	0	3

1st 3:41STLL. Mailloux0.05 xG
1st 11:48STLM. Luff0.13 xG
1st 15:50CHIW. Kaiser0.10 xG
2nd 8:57STLJ. Faulk0.14 xG
3rd 14:08CHIA. Burakovsky0.13 xG

Team Stats

CHISTL

29Shots on goal26

1.79Expected goals2.60

52Shot attempts51

285v5 shots on goal22

0/0Power play0/1

19Hits30

11Blocked shots13

14Penalty minutes12

14Giveaways12

4Takeaways9

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked shot had of going in, by our model, added up.

Expected Goals Over the Game

CHI 1.79 xGSTL 2.60 xGGoal

Each step up is a shot: how likely it was to go in. A team well above the other had the better chances, whatever the score.

Shot Map

CHI29 on goal, 2 scored

STL25 on goal, 3 scored

GoalSavedMissedBlockedBigger: a better chance

Box Score

CHI Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
C. Bedard	C	0	2	2	2	2	1	0	2	20:46	0:00
A. Burakovsky	LW	1	1	2	1	0	0	+1	0	17:42	0:00
T. Bertuzzi	LW	0	0	0	3	1	1	-3	0	17:35	0:00
R. Greene	C	0	0	0	2	1	0	+1	0	17:10	0:00
T. Teravainen	C	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	17:08	0:00
I. Mikheyev	RW	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:28	0:00
F. Nazar	C	0	0	0	1	1	0	-1	0	15:08	0:00
R. Donato	C	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:13	0:00
J. Dickinson	C	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	13:56	0:00
C. Dach	C	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	7	11:27	0:00
O. Moore	C	0	0	0	2	2	0	-1	0	11:15	0:00
S. Lafferty	C	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:02	0:00
W. Kaiser	D	1	0	1	3	0	1	+1	0	19:40	0:00
A. Levshunov	D	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	0	22:23	0:00
M. Grzelcyk	D	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	21:56	0:00
A. Vlasic	D	0	0	0	0	0	0	-2	0	18:38	0:00
L. Crevier	D	0	0	0	3	0	0	-2	0	18:31	0:00
C. Murphy	D	0	0	0	0	2	2	+1	5	17:02	0:00

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
S. Knight	26	23	3	.885	58:00	Loss
A. Soderblom	0	0	0	–	0:00

STL Skaters

Player	Pos	G	A	P	SOG	HIT	BLK	+/-	PIM	TOI	PP TOI
R. Thomas	C	0	2	2	1	0	1	+1	0	21:38	0:51
J. Neighbours	LW	0	1	1	0	6	0	+1	2	17:43	1:13
R. Fabbri	C	0	1	1	2	3	1	+1	0	13:03	0:00
M. Luff	RW	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	9:03	0:00
P. Buchnevich	LW	0	0	0	1	1	0	+2	0	20:12	0:49
P. Suter	C	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:37	1:09
D. Holloway	LW	0	0	0	3	5	0	-1	5	16:28	1:13
B. Schenn	C	0	0	0	3	4	0	-1	0	16:16	1:11
M. Joseph	RW	0	0	0	0	1	1	+1	0	15:00	0:00
D. Dvorsky	RW	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	13:08	0:47
O. Sundqvist	C	0	0	0	0	0	0	-1	0	11:40	0:47
H. McGing	LW	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:55	0:00
C. Parayko	D	0	1	1	3	1	2	-1	0	23:59	0:00
J. Faulk	D	1	0	1	2	0	4	+1	0	22:03	0:58
T. Tucker	D	0	1	1	1	1	0	+1	0	14:13	0:00
L. Mailloux	D	1	0	1	2	0	0	+1	5	13:17	0:00
P. Broberg	D	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	24:08	0:00
C. Fowler	D	0	0	0	3	0	1	+1	0	20:43	1:02

Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	TOI
J. Hofer	29	27	2	.931	59:54	Win
J. Binnington	0	0	0	–	0:00

Lines at 5-on-5

CHI

Line 1C. Bedard18:46A. Burakovsky15:48R. Greene14:27

Line 2J. Dickinson13:26I. Mikheyev14:17T. Teravainen14:55

Line 3S. Lafferty8:02C. Dach10:22R. Donato11:43

Line 4F. Nazar13:21O. Moore10:22T. Bertuzzi16:03

Pair 1M. Grzelcyk20:12A. Levshunov20:30

Pair 2C. Murphy16:18W. Kaiser17:48

Pair 3A. Vlasic16:30L. Crevier16:40

STL

Line 1P. Buchnevich17:18R. Thomas19:06J. Neighbours16:24

Line 2B. Schenn13:18M. Joseph14:25D. Holloway13:16

Line 3P. Suter13:53D. Dvorsky12:21R. Fabbri13:03

Line 4M. Luff9:03H. McGing8:55O. Sundqvist10:23

Pair 1C. Parayko21:52P. Broberg22:05

Pair 2J. Faulk18:58T. Tucker14:07

Pair 3C. Fowler17:52L. Mailloux13:11

From the NHL's shift charts: the players on the ice together most at 5-on-5, with each one's own 5-on-5 time.

How We Did

	We projected	It finished
Score	CHI 2.8, STL 3.0	CHI 2, STL 3
Total goals	5.8	5
Shots on goal	CHI 24.6, STL 27.5	CHI 29, STL 26
Win chance	STL 55%	STL won

Players

Player	SOG projected	SOG	Points projected	Points	Goal chance	Goals
CHI C. Bedard	2.6	2	0.91	2	29%	0
STL D. Holloway	2.4	3	0.68	0	25%	0
STL P. Buchnevich	2.0	1	0.76	0	26%	0
CHI T. Bertuzzi	2.0	3	0.68	0	28%	0
CHI F. Nazar	1.9	1	0.62	0	21%	0
CHI I. Mikheyev	1.8	1	0.42	0	21%	0
STL R. Thomas	1.8	1	0.96	2	24%	0
CHI R. Donato	1.8	1	0.52	0	21%	0
STL P. Suter	1.8	0	0.49	0	21%	0
STL J. Faulk	1.7	2	0.47	1	10%	1
STL P. Broberg	1.6	1	0.45	0	11%	0
STL C. Parayko	1.6	3	0.43	1	12%	0
STL B. Schenn	1.6	3	0.57	0	21%	0
STL J. Neighbours	1.6	0	0.59	1	25%	0
CHI A. Burakovsky	1.6	1	0.62	2	20%	1
CHI R. Greene	1.5	2	0.41	0	17%	0
STL R. Fabbri	1.5	2	0.41	1	20%	0
STL C. Fowler	1.4	3	0.53	0	9%	0
STL D. Dvorsky	1.4	2	0.27	0	15%	0
STL M. Joseph	1.3	0	0.35	0	12%	0
CHI T. Teravainen	1.3	1	0.64	0	21%	0
CHI A. Levshunov	1.2	0	0.42	0	4%	0
STL M. Luff	1.2	1	0.25	1	12%	1
STL L. Mailloux	1.2	2	0.23	1	6%	1
CHI J. Dickinson	1.1	3	0.32	0	15%	0
CHI O. Moore	1.1	2	0.37	0	12%	0
CHI L. Crevier	1.1	3	0.23	0	6%	0
CHI C. Dach	1.0	2	0.24	0	10%	0
CHI W. Kaiser	1.0	3	0.19	1	5%	1
CHI A. Vlasic	1.0	0	0.23	0	4%	0
STL T. Tucker	1.0	1	0.19	1	7%	0
CHI C. Murphy	0.9	0	0.17	0	4%	0
CHI M. Grzelcyk	0.9	4	0.27	0	2%	0
STL O. Sundqvist	0.9	0	0.34	0	11%	0
STL H. McGing	0.9	1	0.22	0	11%	0
CHI S. Lafferty	0.7	0	0.16	0	9%	0

Shots on goal: 24 of 36 players within one of their projection; they took 0.1 more than projected on average.

Our projections as they stood at puck drop. One game says little about a model; Model Notes has how it tests over thousands.